The PGA Tour heads back to the States for the start of the Florida Swing this week and the Honda Classic. The following PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel are based off of Awesemo’s rankings, which are a product of his projections.
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The Honda Classic
The Champions Course at PGA National plays as one of the toughest courses on tour with its narrow fairways and oft windy conditions. There are 25-35 mile per hour winds in the forecast for the next few days, so embrace the variance and opt for ownership discounts whenever applicable. Accuracy players and great approach players get a bump this week, but bombers can have success here (Justin Thomas and Luke List finished first and second in 2018, Keith Mitchell won last year). shots gained on approach (SG: APP) grades out as slightly more important than your average course, but is no more or less predictive, due to the water hazard-induced variance.
Course Stats and Info
- Par 70, 7,125 yards
- 13 water hazards
- Bermuda fairways, Bermuda greens
- Narrow, sub-30-yard-wide fairways
- Second-hardest course this season
With the Tour heading over to Florida and more Bermuda greens in our future, let’s take a look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Negative Bermuda Butting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
- Maverick McNealy: e/v on Bermuda, +23 on all other surfaces
- Matt Wallace: +2 on Bermuda, +18 on all other surfaces
- Lucas Glover: 19 on Bermuda, +5 on all other surfaces
- Shane Lowry: -1.5 on Bermuda
- Tommy Fleetwood: 1.5 on Bermuda, + 15 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat: +64 on Bermuda, -12 all other surfaces
- Charles Howell III: +33 on Bermuda, +3 on all other surfaces
- Patton Kizzire: +29.8 on Bermuda, -5 all other surfaces
- Brooks Koepka: +24 on Bermuda, -15 on all other surfaces
- Sam Burns: +34 on Bermuda, +7 on all other surfaces
PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Jim Furyk: Grades: B, Values: A
Jim Furyk grades out as one of the best mid-tier values in Awesemo’s rankings this week at $7,100 on DraftKings and $8700 on FanDuel. Sure, his best days are behind him, but I remain convinced that he’s still got some gas left in the tank, and that he’ll begin to round into form now that his shoulder injury is in the past. Furyk has missed his last two cuts right on the number, so that should scare people off. He had a tied-ninth and a tied-46th in his last two appearances here. I also like the course fit here for Furyk where his lack of length off the tee won’t hurt him too much. The only real concern is his ability to put up DFS points. He ranks 95th and 100th in the field over the last 50 rounds in DraftKings/FanDuel scoring. Fortunately, Awesemo’s projections have scoring upside/downside already baked in.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 9% | FanDuel: 4%
- Second in mid-term Strokes Gained: Approach
- 15th in mid-term Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Fourthin MT SG:T2G on par 70, sub-7,200-yard courses (50 rounds), sixth over the last 24 rounds.
- 13th in mixed condition model that weighs strokes gained on various PGA National hole lengths.
- Positive Bermuda putting splits
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Lucas Glover: Grades: B, Values: A+
It’s tough to remember the last time a player got an A+ for value from Awesemo, which means it doesn’t happen often. After an amazing stretch during the swing season in 2019 that carried right on through to the summer, the Florida native Glover has cooled of late with just one top-30 finish since September. And it’s tough to point to just one aspect of his game that’s faltering right now — something different seems to go wrong every tournament. On the plus side, long-term form is one of the most predictive stats we can use in golf, and there Glover excels, ranking 12th in the field in strokes gained tee to green and 18th in ball striking. He also has three straight top-20 finishes at the Honda, including a fourth-place finish last year.
- Seventh in SG: TOT at PGA National
- 12th in long-term Strokes Gaines Tee to Green
- 18th in long-term Ball Striking
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 15% | FanDuel: 10%
Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP flier
Kiradech Aphibarnrat: Grades: C, Values: B
I went into this week fully expecting to go full fade on an overowned Aphibarnrat, due to a reasonable price and the best putting splits of any player and surface on the Tour. But we’re looking at 1% ownership this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and after a closer look at Aphibarnrat’s stats, that ownership makes sense. Aphibarnrat han’t set the world on fire of late with a run of middling finishes that’s seen him drop some 75 places in the OWGR. So this is really a flier that he can put those insane Bermuda putting splits to work and show some flashes. Fortunately, you don’t need much to get overweight.
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