The first WGC event of the 2019-20 PGA Season is upon us, and with it comes a shorter field, no-cut event with dozens of Euro Tour regulars flying over to compete at the Club de Golf Chappultepec in Mexico City. There are 72 players in total, including 40 of the world’s top 50-players. Let’s get into some PGA DFS Picks for your DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft and Yahoo lineups.
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Last Week Review
It was a pretty disappointing effort from our two picks last week. Erik van Rooyen continued to bleed strokes around the green, en route to missing the cut by two. Keep an eye on him, though, as his ball striking is elite and he seems to fly under the radar quite often at these events. Our mid-range value, Justin Rose, was in contention until Friday, but faded on the weekend with scores of 74 and 75.
WGC Mexico at Club de Golf Chapultepec
If you’re one of those degenerate types like myself that likes to go through all of the hole-length data to see who’s a course fit, this probably isn’t the week to do it. The altitude at Club de Golf Chapultepec adds approximately 15% more distance to every shot. Last year, there were over 25 drives above 400 yards at this event, including Justin Thomas’s season-high 457-yard smash on the par-4 10th. That means there are a multiple drivable par 4’s here and some reachable 600-plus-yard par 5’s. It’s likely no coincidence that the top tee-to-green players at WGC-Mexico have historically been bombers. This is a no-cut event, so fire away on those birdie makers with impunity.
The Course
- Par 71, 7,300-7,400 yards
- Played at altitude (2,400 meters, 7,800 feet above sea level)
- Fast, poa annua greens
- Narrow, kikuyu fairways
PGA DFS Picks
Rather than forcing in a top option like we have the last couple weeks, we’re going to get back to straight-up picks here at Approach headquarters, with an emphasis on great value plays, regardless of the price range. And let’s be real; no one needs to be told to play Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson or Justin Thomas.
Unlike most weeks, there is a lot of pricing discrepancy from site to site: Colin Morikawa is a supreme deal on Yahoo, while on DraftKings, Scottie Scheffler takes top honors. It’s slim pickings on FanDuel, with no A-value player graded above a D for points.
Scottie Scheffler: Grades C, Values: A, B
The 23-year-old phenom out of Dallas has had a mediocre recent stretch after starting the season with eight straight made cuts and four top-10s. After back-to-back missed cuts at the WMPO and the Farmers, Scheffler rebounded last week with a respectable 30th-place finish. His price point is way down in this deep field, but he’s still top-10 on the Tour in weighted scoring average this season, ahead of the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm. As one of the longer hitters in this field, he should have a few extra birdies opportunities this week. He’ll feature heavily in Awesemo’s PGA DFS lineups this week.
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The Stats
- Ninth in Medium-Term Strokes Gained Total (SG: TOT)
- Seventh in Medium-Term Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SG: OTT)
- 13th in Driving Distance (DD)
- Sixth in Medium Term Birdie or Better (BoB)
- Fourth in Vegas Bargain Rating (odds relative to price)
Sungjae Im: Grades: C, Values, C, B
Speaking of underpriced, mid-range golfers, Sungjae Im fits nicely into your lineups, coming it at just under $8,000 on DraftKings and $9,700 on FanDuel, where he’s a worse value but will come in at lower ownership. This is a bet on long-term form over recent form and course fit, with Im ranking an elite 12th this year in weighted scoring average and 10th in long-term (LT) SG: TOT. He’s also been remarkable consistent with one missed cut since last July (last week at Genesis). Since then, he’s racked up nine top-20 finishes in 14 events and sits eighth in BoB gained – the perfect mix of safety and upside at a reasonable price.
The Stats
- 10th in LT SG: TOT
- 11th in weighted scoring average
- Fifth in LT BoB
Byeong Hun An: Grades: C, Values: B
There’s a rule around here that you can’t go more than two weeks without touting Byeong Hun An, so far be it from me to rock the boat. As is always the case with playing An, success and failure comes down to putting. An ranks dead last in this field in LT: Strokes Gained Putting and has poor poa putting splits, but is fifth in LT SG: tee to green (T2G). In his past two appearances here at Chapultepec, An has finished 45th and 48th with 8.9 SG: T2G and -10.5 Strokes Gained Putting. Buy the ticket, take the ride.
The Stats
- 10th in LT SG: T2G
- 15th in LT BoB
Low-Owned GPP Flier
With just five golfers projected for under 2% ownership, there aren’t really any golfers that fit the bill. Branden Grace and Sergio Garcia are your best “pay up to be contrarian” options on DraftKings. Garcia is the highest-priced golfer under 10% ownership on either site and boasts three top-12 finishes here in a row, including a sixth last year.
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