The first WGC since the restart happens this week as we gear up for the players’ final warmup — and ours for making our PGA DFS picks — before the first major of the year. It’s been a strange couple of months seeing players go place to place without fans, but with pretty much every top player — outside of Tiger Woods — having multiple starts now, the WGC FedEx St. Jude Classic feels like it’s setting up to be a great appetizer to the PGA Championship.
The event is hosted by perennial PGA venue TPC Southwind, who used to host the old version of this event right before the US Open each season. Southwind is a par-70 venue that stretches to around 7,277 yards and plays very much like many of the courses the players see in the Florida swing. Water is in play on 11 holes, and the course contains two par 3’s with island greens. The greens here are also smaller than normal, and it’s no surprise that the greens-in-regulation percentages here are lower than the Tour average by at least a couple percent most seasons. The venue has seen a variety of winners, with tee-to-green specialists like Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka dominating here of late, but long-shot winners, such as Fabian Gomez and Ben Crane have also found the winner’s circle.
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TPC Southwind Course Stats and Info
• Par 70, 7,277 yards; Champion Bermuda Greens. Ranked as the 25th-hardest course on Tour last year and 11th-toughest in 2018.
• Fairways are skinnier than we’ve seen of late as the field hit just 59% of fairways here last season (below the Tour average of 60%)
• Greens were hard to hit as the field averaged just 62% here (Paul Casey led at 75%), which is quite a bit lower than the 65.8% Tour average from 2019.
• Six par 4’s over 450 yards, many of which contain doglegs; 150-175 yards is the busiest approach distance by far here.
Putting Splits
The greens at TPC Southwind are Champion Bermuda and should not have changed much from last season. Here’s a look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Gary Woodland: -7 on Bermuda, +17 on all other surfaces
2. Danny Willett: -9 on Bermuda, +16 on all other surfaces
3. Rory McIlroy: +10 on Bermuda, +21 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Brooks Koepka: +27 on Bermuda, -8 on all other surfaces
2. SungJae Im: +23 on Bermuda, +9 on all other surfaces
3. Paul Casey: -1 on Bermuda, -19 on all other surfaces
PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Patrick Reed: Grades: B, Values: C
Reed comes into this week’s event off a couple of nice starts at Muirfield Village where he finished 39th and 10th. The American has still been somewhat reliant on a hot putter of late, but when he’s connected with that club, he’s produced top-10 finishes on both occasions. This week, he also comes in with the highest top-six percentage in the Awesemo grading system for anyone under $9,000 on DraftKings. His position on the DraftKings salary structure has him placed under names like Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) and Tony Finau ($9,100) this week, players he’s generally better than from a pure upside/win-equity standpoint. Reed also played quite well at this venue last year, ending the week in 12th and gaining over six strokes tee to green. He’s been a bit of a WGC/smaller field maestro over his career too, gaining multiple playoff and WGC wins, and he won’t mind if the wind gets up — as the forecast suggests it might — as one of his biggest wins came at the insanely tough/windy WGC Doral event years back. From an upside-to-price standpoint, you can’t do much better than Reed in the upper tiers on either major DFS site this week.
The Stats:
• Has now gained five or more strokes putting in three of his last eight starts and landed a top 10 on each of those occasions.
• Tied for 12th this venue last year and was the only player in the top 12 who lost strokes putting for the week; gained more strokes tee to green than eventual winner Brooks Koepka.
• Has gained strokes off the tee in four of his last five starts.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 15.7% | FanDuel: 18.6%
SungJae Im: Grades: C, Values: B
Im comes in without the best recent form but has a solid value and great upside potential, according to the Awesemo model. The South Korean ranks out as a top-level value and also carries the second-highest top-six percentage in the $7,000 range this week on DraftKings. From a form perspective, we could obviously ask for more, as Im has now failed to crack the top 50 in five straight events since a 10th-place finish at the Charles Schwab to open up his restart. It’s hard to say what’s been the issue for Im of late, but his iron game has really struggled, as he’s now lost strokes on approach in five straight events. He went through a similar stretch of bad play last summer, which he promptly broke out of with a seventh at the RBC Canadian Open last year. When you combine his majorly depressed price with his extremely good Bermuda putting splits, there’s no reason not to take a piece of a long-term quality player, available at some extremely low price points in DFS this week.
The Stats:
• +23 strokes putting in his last 50 rounds on Bermuda greens
• Has played well in Florida (PGA National mainly), which has plenty of courses that are good comparisons for TPC Southwind
• Over a $1,000 drop in price on the major sites this week
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 5.4% | FanDuel: 4.6%
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Low-Owned GPP Flier
Louis Oosthuizen
Much like Im, Oosthuizen hasn’t given us much to go off of from a recent-form perspective since the restart. While he’s missed just one cut thus far, he’s been unable to avoid the blow-up rounds and has recorded four finishes outside the top 45. Still, there’s been signs that something better is lurking. Oosthuizen has gained three or more strokes on his approaches in two of his last eight rounds and had his best statistical performance with his irons last week in over six months on the PGA. On top of this sneakily improving form, his prices this week in both betting and DFS seem far out of whack with his long-term talent too. Oosthuizen has the second-highest top-six percentage on Awesemo this week for any player in the $6,000 range on DraftKings and grades out as one of the top values from any tier. He posted a 20th-place finish here last season and may stay relatively lower-owned in this week’s no-cut event due to lackluster results and perceived injury concerns.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 8.9%| FanDuel: 4.8%
Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five
I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Matthew Wolff ($7,900)
Wolff is coming off a stretch where he made three cuts in four starts and has been trending well with his irons and putter, gaining multiple strokes in both those areas in three of his last four starts. His consistency still hasn’t made him a high-sentiment play here, however, as he’s trending towards sub-7% ownership in this limited-field event.
Cameron Smith ($6,300)
Smith should be a GPP flier this week for those wanting a true sub-5% play. The Aussie has missed three of his last four cuts since the restart but still carries one of the better short-game/putter combos in the world. He’s too good of a player not to come through with a few good results soon and has finished 22nd or better in three of his last four WGC starts, including a 12th at this venue last season.
Tom Lewis ($6,200)
Lewis has landed 32nd and 12th finishes in his last two PGA starts and was 22nd in shots gained tee to green and fifth in greens in regulation last week in Minnesota. Like Smith, he’s stepped his game up against big competition in the past, landing an 11th at The Open last year. With his game trending well, I like the talent you’re getting here for what should be sub-5% ownership in most GPPs.
