This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed PGA DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy lineups and give you a couple of recommendations for The BMW Championship. On a typical showdown contest, DraftKings will offer upwards of $50,000 to first for rounds 2 and 3 showdown and sometimes up to $100,000 for the final-round contests. They also provide weekend-long contests that have been offering $25,000 to first for most weekends. Lastly, FanDuel has also tried to get into the weekend-long and final round contests, offering $10,000 and $5,000 to first.
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Previous Round Commentary
Even with the overnight rains, it wasn’t enough to bring the intensity of the golf course down much. Though it did allow it to play easier than the first two days as a whole, the lead didn’t increase and still sits at -1. Two players shot 66 on the day, the best score of the tournament: Kevin Streelman, who was also bogey-free, and Jon Rahm who had one of the most bizarre penalties I’ve ever seen called on him. He picked up his ball on the green without marking it. That could end up costing him the tournament.
Dustin Johnson is playing some of the most inspired golf I’ve seen from him in years, and hopefully he can keep it up and get his second tournament in a couple of weeks. When he’s on, he really is fun to watch. He and Hideki Matsuyama are the only two golfers with two rounds under par and are tied for the lead heading into Sunday. They played together today, and it was a great match to watch. They’ll do it for 18 more tomorrow.
Previous Round Stat Review
Streelman was the only golfer to go bogey-free on the day, although the scoring average wasn’t that much easier, sitting at 72.39 for the day.
BOB Leaders through Round 3:
- Brendon Todd (12)
- Rory McIlroy (11)
- Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann (10)
- Adam Long, Max Homa (9)
Fewest Bogeys (or Worse) through Round 3:
- Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes (6)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick, Carlos Ortiz, Harris English (7)
Strokes Gained Ball Striking vs. Putting
Each of our top two golfers bounced back with good putting rounds in round 3, with Corey Conners gaining about a half a stroke and Kevin Streelman gaining 1.78. Even Bubba Watson gained 0.95 on the day. Rory McIlroy, Danny Lee and Scottie Scheffler are going the other way, sadly, all losing badly on the day while maintaining their ball-striking form.
Strokes Gained Ball Striking Round by Round Differential
Only one golfer in the top 10 in this category has gained consecutively in all three rounds and been better in each of them: Joaquin Niemann. On the day, Byeong Hun An sprung to form, gaining 3.35, 5.34 more than in round 2, with Adam Long, Collin Morikawa, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Brian Harman all not far behind.
Lock Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
PGA DFS Contest Preview
- DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first and $350,000 guaranteed for tomorrow’s slate.
- FanDuel is offering $5,000 to first and $25,000 guaranteed for the weekend-long slate.
General Slate Strategy
This will be one of the most compelling final rounds we’ve had in some time, with 26 of the 70 golfers within six of the lead. I mention six off the lead because I think the winning score is likely to come in around even, and the course showed us that 65 was possible today, save for a big brain fart on Rahm’s part. So, I think targeting a couple of those guys that are six back like Richy Werenski, Correy Conners and Max Homa could provide some low-owned, high-upside GPP plays tomorrow. This is also a good time to put in my weekly disclaimer:
*Finishing points are allocated to players for the final round showdown contests on DraftKings.
Top 10 Breakdown and Picks
There are five really solid names and a couple of other more prominent names on the first page of the leaderboard heading into Sunday. Although, I’d say this is the first time we have three of the top-five-priced guys in the field in the top six heading into Sunday. That should make for a compelling finishing tomorrow. Watson and Kevin Kisner both played well enough to remain in the top 10 but couldn’t make up any ground on the leaders and still sit three back. Jolting into the top 10 today were Niemann and Sebastian Munoz, two winners from last year’s fall swing season.
Dustin Johnson ($10,800)
Rahm is still getting it done everywhere but with his irons, and McIlroy is getting closer but is not quite there. Johnson, on the other hand, is getting stronger as this tournament rolls on and looks incredibly motivated with his golf game right now. I know he’ll be the highest-owned golfer tomorrow — there’s no doubt about that — but I’m hoping with these next two picks, and a couple of other fill-ins, I diversify enough to create variance in my lineup.
Stud or Value Pick Outside of Top 10
Russell Henley ($7,400)
Speaking of getting stronger as the tournament goes on, Henley had a bad first round but has gained over 2.3 strokes from tee to green in each of the last two rounds now. He is back to the form we’ve seen the last month or so. He has one day left in his season, unless he pulls off something miraculous, and being within four of the lead, it’s not out of the question for him to post a number and get himself at least inside the top five.
Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10
Cameron Smith ($6,300)
I guess I’m playing a theme here, but Smith has also progressively gotten better as this tournament goes on. He had a good week last week but struggled out of the gates on Thursday. He lost just about a stroke tee to green, but since then, he’s had back-to-back good days, gaining 0.62 in round 2 and 2.36 in round 3. He’s also right on the bubble for making it to next week, something to surely keep him extra motivated as the round goes on.
Max Homa ($7,300)
Correy Conners ($6,500)
Richy Werenski ($6,400)
Collin Morikawa ($8,600)
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