PGA DFS: Strokes Gained Analysis & Picks

Every fantasy sport has its set of data that helps to try to project what’s going to happen. In professional golf, that’s done by a metric called Strokes Gained. Created by Mark Broadie, a professor at Columbia, it measures a golfer against others on a shot-by-shot basis. That’s compiled then for daily, weekly, and yearly stats, or however long your database goes for. The database we will be working with for PGA DFS covers about 18 months’ worth of tournaments. While making PGA DFS picks is typically about recent form, we like to understand players’ strengths and weaknesses to better understand where they might perform best. Let’s dig in.

Strokes Gained Analysis

Eight weeks back into the start of professional golf and only two golfers in this field have recorded starts in all eight: Bubba Watson and Matthew Wolff. Another 35 or will be making their first start.

Strokes Gained Total

Criteria: Number of starts over 2.0 and/or percentage of starts over 1.5

Seven golfers in the field have gained at least two total strokes against the field in 50% of their starts: Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama and Jon Rahm.
Over the last six weeks, only one golfer has gained at least 1.25 total strokes against the field five times: Schauffele. Thomas, Tony Finau and Matthew Fitzpatrick have done it four times.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green – Combination of Off the Tee, Approach and Around the Green

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.75 and/or percentage of starts over 1.25

Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey and Erik van Rooyen join McIlroy, Thomas, Matsuyama and Rahm as golfers who have gained at least 1.25 strokes tee to green in 50% of their starts.
Over the last six weeks, only three golfers have gained over 1.25 strokes four times: Garcia, Jason Day and Brooks Koepka.

Strokes Gained Ball Striking – Combination of Off the Tee and Approach

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.25 and/or percentage of starts over 0.75

Eighteen golfers have been able to gain at least three-quarters of a stroke ball striking in at least 50% of their starts. Some of the names not listed above already include Henrik Stenson, Patrick Cantlay, Corey Conners, Doc Redman, Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo and Joaquin Niemann.
Over the last five weeks, Finau has gained three-quarters of a stroke ball striking five times. Viktor Hovland, Conners, Watson and Sebastian Munoz have done it four times.

Strokes Gained Short Game: Combination of Around the Green and Putting

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.25 and/or percentage of starts over 0.75

Fitzpatrick has been doing his best Jordan Spieth impression, gaining at least 0.75 strokes with his short game four times in the last eight weeks. That’s one shy of Mackenzie Hughes, who has done it five times. A couple more golfers have done it three times, including Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Billy Horschel, Brian Harman and J.T. Poston.
Spieth and Denny McCarthy are the only two golfers with at least 10 starts to gain at least 0.75 strokes with their short game in at least 50% of their starts.

Off the Tee

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.0 and/or percentage of starts over 0.5

Even though McIlroy has had his struggles, they haven’t really come off the tee. He’s gained at least half a stroke in 90% of his starts. There are only four others that have done it at least 70% of their starts: Rahm, Hovland, Cameron Champ and Jason Kokrak.
In terms of the last eight weeks, we want to look for golfers that have been consistently good off the tee, at least beating the field. Watson has done it seven times, while Rahm, DeChambeau and Morikawa have done it six times.

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Strokes Gained on Approach

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.0 and/or percentage of starts over 0.5

Similar to off the tee, we want to find golfers that have been gaining at least half a stroke with their approaches in the last six weeks. Si Woo Kim, Jason Dufner and C.T. Pan have all done it four times. Russell Henley Hovland, Conners, Spieth, Niemann, Thomas and Koepka are a few others that have done it three times.
Four golfers in the field have gained at least one stroke with their approaches multiple times: Hovland, Henley, Thomas and Morikawa.

Strokes Gained Around the Green

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.0 and/or percentage of starts over 0.5

In what is the hardest category to gain strokes, Adam Scott, Steve Striker and Brandt Snedeker have gained at least 0.5 strokes around the green in half of their starts.
Over the last eight weeks, I lowered the criteria to just 0.25 strokes gained around the green and learned that Thomas has done this in all six of his starts. Harman has also done it six times, whereas Day has done it five. Another 25 golfers or so have done it at least three times, including Spieth, Poston, Horschel, Garcia and Dylan Frittelli.

Strokes Gained Putting

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.25 and/or percentage of time gained over 0.25

Sixteen golfers in the field are incredibly consistent with their putter, gaining at least 0.25 strokes with it in 60% of their starts. Some of those names include Harris English, Wyndham Clark, Matt Wallace, Brendon Todd, Simpson, Spieth and Fitzpatrick.
We look for golfers that can get hot with their putter, gaining at least 1.25 strokes with the putter. McCarthy is the only golfer who has done it double-digit times, and Spieth has done it nine. Horschel is next with seven, and a pack of golfers has done it six times: Andrew Putnam, Sungjae Im, Brian Stuard and Talor Gooch.
Over the last eight weeks, Hughes has gained at least 0.25 strokes six times. Putnam, DeChambeau, Fitzpatrick, Matt Kuchar, Ian Poulter, Sepp Straka and Gary Woodland have all done it five times.

For more info on this, check out my “Fit & Form Podcast” coming out within the hour (Tuesday at 9 a.m.) to help you with all of this information and so much more!

The Strokes Gained Sheet

Click here for the full sheet

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].