PGA DFS: The Winning Element for the WGC Mexico (FREE Today!)

Rory McIlroy ($11,500/$12,200)

The consistency is way too hard to pass up. I just can’t do it. Rahm and Thomas haven’t been consistent, so I’m going to pay the premium and start a lot of my lineups with McIlroy this week, especially in lower-dollar GPPs. Every part of his game seems to be intact. Plus, this course is way easier to drive the ball than The Farmers, where he actually lost strokes off the tee in three rounds. That won’t happen this week. Other than that one blip, he’s been rock solid all year with every part of his game. I have him adding the Mexico Championship to his list of tournaments won at the end of the week.

• Target Allocation: 45%
• Projected Ownership: 25%

Xander Schauffele ($9,400/$11,100)

Price is back to where I like to play Schauffele. While it’s not $7,900 like we got out of DeChambeau last week, Schauffele’s iron play has me buying in. He gained three strokes last week and has been solid off the tee all year. I’ll bank on a hot putter getting him into the top five this week.

• Target Allocation: 35%
• Projected Ownership: 15%

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200/$11,000)

Dating back to the end of last year, Fleetwood is playing some incredible golf. He won the Nedbank Golf Challenge in late November and has only played three times since then, finishing second twice and tied for 11th once. It’s his first start on the PGA Tour this season, and also the first time he’ll be the top-ranked English player in his career, passing Justin Rose when rankings were released this week. Fleetwood also has some good history here, finishing in second in 2017, so there’s plenty to go off of.

This will be the first start of what’s likely to be four in a row for Fleetwood, having committed to the Honda Classic next week, then back-to-back starts at The Players and The Arnold Palmer Invitational. Those last two he has had chances to win in the past.

• Target Allocation: 30%
• Projected Ownership: 15%

Bryson DeChambeau ($9,000/$10,200)

DeChambeau had a terrible time with the adjustments last year, but I would hope that for someone as smart as him, he’ll be spot on this time around. I don’t like paying $9,000 for him just one week after we got the great value at $7,900, but I also like him quite a bit more than the people around him. So I’m going to just throw out the price tag for now and hope for a repeat performance similar to what we got last week.

• Target Allocation: 30%
• Projected Ownership: 12%

Sungjae Im ($7,900/$9,700)

Last week, I used the “Price is Right” tag line for DeChambeau, so I can’t use it here again, but I surely want to. This is the first time Im’s price has been below $8,000 this year, off the heels of a bad Friday round and his first missed cut in a long time. He’s shown the ability to bounce back after a missed cut, and it seems quite a few people are off of him.

Im lost over a stroke around the green last week, which was the first time he’d lost over a stroke in the last 10 measured starts. If that cleans up this week, he should be right in the mix come the weekend. I’m basically trading Im for Abraham Ancer where I need this spot in my bigger-dollar lineups but will play both of them pretty equally in the lower-dollar GPPs.

• Target Allocation: 25%
• Projected Ownership: 15%

Kurt Kitayama ($7,200/ $8,800)

It was another strong performance off the tee by Kitayama at Pebble Beach a couple of weeks ago, where he had a good start playing on a sponsor’s exemption. He now comes to a course that will reward his aggressive style of play even more. He also is going to be around the same ownership, so all the more reason for me to load up on him again this week.

• Target Allocation: 20%
• Projected Ownership: 5%

Scottie Scheffler ($7,100/$9,000)

Last week, Scheffler was able to make the cut, even though the course wasn’t a great fit for him, at least by my numbers. There were a lot of mid-to-long irons, and it seems in his young career that’s where Scheffler seems to struggle, while he’s very good with his short iron and wedges. He’ll have a ton of those here this week, and his price has dropped significantly from the fall. This is a perfect spot to jump back on the train.

• Target Allocation: 23%
• Projected Ownership: 10%

Matthias Schwab ($6,900/???)

As of the time I’m writing this, there’s still no FanDuel price for Schwab. Anyhow, he’s below $7,000 on DraftKings, providing some pretty good value. His strong suit is ball striking, but he has the capability of doing anything when called upon. He did everything but win last year, but at this price, we don’t need a win. We need a top-15 or better and I think he gives you one of the better chances to do so at this price level.

He struggled a tad to find the top part of the leaderboard over his first three starts, but his putter wasn’t working all that well. Plus, he was also much more expensive than he is now.

• Target Allocation: 23%
• Projected Ownership: 7%

Sebastian Munoz ($6,800/$7,900) 

The tighter fairways tricked Munoz up a little bit last week, losing just .07 per round. His irons looked good and his putter warmed up, both of the things I want to see heading into this week. He’s great with his wedges, ranking 10th last year in proximity from under 125, and ranks 18th this year from the 125-150 range. Both should fit nicely here, and he’s almost assured to be around 7% owned. I like him as a last guy in the lineup this week.

• Target Allocation: 23%
• Projected Ownership: 7%

Missed Cut as Part of the Core Last Time They Played

So many times in my career playing PGA DFS, I’ve been a week early on a guy. So I’m adding this section here for golfers that the last time they played, they missed the cut and were part of my core. I’m going to play them likely as part of the core again, or at least as a fringe play.

Players that Qualify

• Erik van Rooyen
• Justin Thomas

Both guys were huge letdowns in our PGA DFS lineups last week, but I like them both enough here and long-term that I’ll place them on the same lineup in the $100, and own them close to a fringe golfer.