The Winning Element, PGA DFS Picks for The Players Championship

Rory McIlroy ($11,800/$12,200)

The consistent elite form shown by McIlroy is something we haven’t seen out of any golfer in quite some time. Sure, he’s on a run of four straight top-fives, but how about his 14 straight top-26s with 12 of the 14 ending in top-10 finishes? It’s incredible really, and he’s deserving of the No. 1 ranking in the world. Until he or DraftKings give us a reason not to play McIlroy, we play him. In my opinion, DraftKings’ reason would be something close to $12,500 in terms of salary.

• Target Allocation: 40%
• Projected Ownership: 20%

Justin Thomas ($10,800/$11,900)

This is almost a pure ownership play. Thomas is a bit cheaper than Rahm, and only half the ownership. There isn’t a chance I’m playing Brooks Koepka over him, so he’s a natural fit here. Thomas had a top-five here in the past, and for him, it’s all about keeping the ball in play. If he does that, his irons have been good enough this year to win, and at lower than 15% ownership, I’ll try and leverage that win equity.

• Target Allocation: 40%
• Projected Ownership: 10%

Xander Schauffele ($9,400/$11,200)

I’ve been waiting for his putter to heat up all year, and finally, the switch to Bermuda greens seemed to help as Schauffele gained almost four strokes last week, the first time he had gained since the Farmers. Schauffele is a streaky putter, and normally when he gets hot, he stays that way for a little bit. Out of the seven times he gained strokes putting last year, five of them came in consecutive starts. His price has also come down in part due to strength of the field and in part due to lackluster play. We know his game can translate practically anywhere, especially here, with a second-place finish in 2018.

• Target Allocation: 30%
• Projected Ownership: 15%

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000/$11,000)

I’m not buying into the market here. Fleetwood has been too good for too long to have one missed cut affect him. Plus, I only have one more week after this to nail my hot take. Still, a $2,000 price decrease has him back to No. 2 or No. 3 in the lineup, rather than the first guy like the last two weeks. I’ll buy into that.

• Target Allocation: 30%
• Projected Ownership: 15%

Bryson DeChambeau ($9,100/$11,300) 

DeChambeau versus Webb Simpson, that’s what it comes down to for me this week, because I don’t want both of their expected chalk in my lineup. So it’s that simple, I ride the hot streak DeChambeau is on and maybe turn to the betting markets and bet the opposite side of this to cover my DeChambeau shares.

• Target Allocation: 35%
• Projected Ownership: 25%

Ian Poulter ($7,300/$9,500)

It was a good two weeks of ball striking for Poulter in the Florida swing, but it seems like everyone wants to play Matt Fitzpatrick over him. That’s fine, I like Fitzpatrick, but at considerably lower ownership this week (4% vs. 15%), this is one of those plays that just makes sense. If Poulter were playing poorly, like Kevin Kisner or Phil Mickelson are, I might lean Fitzpatrick, but to me, this feels like an obvious pivot off the Fitzpatrick and Daniel Berger chalk.

Abraham Ancer ($7,200/$8,900)

I feel like I avoided the semi-bad Ancer chalk the previous two weeks. But now at a lower ownership and price, I’m back in. Tee to green looked really good last week, but on the green, not so much. He lost 3.6 strokes on the green, as the rock-hard, fast greens got to him. That should move plenty of ownership off of him and a makes for a good time to jump back on.

Cameron Tringale ($6,600/$7,300)

I probably could have gotten away with writing Tringale in the fringe portion, but I always like to add at least one sub-$6,000 guy. A few others, while I’m on the topic, are Jhonattan Vegas and Jimmy Walker — you’ll see them in the fringe section — and Talor Gooch on FanDuel for the bare minimum.

Back to Tringale, here’s exactly where I’m using him. I used him in spots where I needed a sixth guy in the lineup where my other five guys have a shot to top-10. If that’s the case, Triangle’s top-25 could be enough to win a GPP, certainly ones of smaller size and limited entries. So while I’m not sure he will help win the Millionaire Maker, he could certainly come close, or at least help in other spots.

Missed Cut as Part of the Core Last Time They Played

Many times in my career playing PGA DFS, I’ve been a week early on a guy. So I’m adding this section here for golfers that the last time they played, they missed the cut and were part of my core. I’m going to play them likely as part of the core again, or at least as a fringe play.

Players that Qualify

• Tommy Fleetwood (above)
• Tony Finau
• Rafa Cabrera-Bello
• Francesco Molinari

I’m not that worried about Finau or Cabrera-Bello; they will be fringe plays. But Molinari I’m very nervous about.