The Valspar Championship is set to tee off at Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Spa. The field is solid for PGA One and Done, so let’s dive into all the One and Done picks for the Valspar Championship.
PGA One and Done Picks: 2022 Valspar Championship
What is a One and Done Pool?
A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that players cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week players have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become points for the player. The same player cannot be used twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning earns a strong payoff. Pools will pay several spots, depending on it is size, similar to a GPP structure from DFS golf.
The Players Championship One and Done Recap
The setup for Hideki Matsuyama was solid heading into Sawgrass both in the outright and One and Done markets. Unfortunately, he withdrew with a back/neck injury that voided outright bets and, depending on the rules of the One and Done pool, either led to an alternate pick or a flat $0. Injuries happen, so just move on and hope to not catch another bad break post-lock.
The man to have was Cameron Smith, who carded 10 birdies in Round 4 en route to a $3.6 million payday. That is a massive haul for One and Done and automatically got those who played him in the hunt for the league title after the first big event. Smith rode a comically hot putter to the win, as he gained 12 strokes on the greens and had 42 one-putts, which does not seem possible. With Smith up to No. 6 in the World Golf Rankings he will be a popular choice at the majors this year, and it is hard to argue with that logic.
Justin Thomas was the column’s pick last week and drew the wrong wave during the crazy weather. That did not stop him from firing a bogey-free 69 in Round 2, which is among the best rounds anyone will have all year. Thomas could not sustain it late into the weekend, and the tie for 33rd was only good for $97,000. That was not great for such a big-money event.
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2022 Valspar Championship PGA One and Done Picks
Last week Matthew Fitzpatrick let a lot of people down, as he was an extremely popular PGA DFS play who missed the cut. The setup and situation definitely led to some big names not finding the weekend, and Fitzpatrick’s form is not a concern heading into Valspar. He has the exact skillset needed to handle this difficult track, and off the missed cut he might not be a very popular selection, which is always a good thing for One and Done picks.
It was another missed cut at the Players for Day, but like Fitzpatrick, he dealt with absolutely awful conditions. He should have a nice bounce back at the Valspar Championship, and the stats actually tell a somewhat promising story. Day has gained strokes putting in five of the last six events and also is positive around the green in five of his last six. That lethal combo of short game is what vaulted him to the top of the World Rankings during his prime, and seeing that uptick has to be a positive spin. It is not all golden, as Day lost strokes again with the irons, but it was just around one stroke and easily could flip. With tough conditions and not a huge opportunity cost, backing Day is fine in this spot.
Those who are among the leaders in their pools and want to play defense, Paul Casey might be the move. He nearly won the Players Championship last week despite opening with a triple-bogey, and his game is in perfect shape heading into Valspar. This place seemingly fits Casey’s strengths, and that is putting it mildly, as he went back-to-back victories in 2018 and 2019 at this course. The combination of recent form and course history make him an obvious and popular PGA One and Done pick this week. He checks all the boxes as long as there are no concerns about going along with the crowd.
Valspar Championship One and Done Pick: Jason Day
The hope with Day is that his Players Championship showing was an outlier rather than a regression of form once again. He had made three straight cuts before last week, including a third-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. His back seems like a non-issue, and a healthy Day is a worthwhile buy during the season. There is not much course history to go on since this is not a regular stop on tour for Day, but the technical layout could allow him to lean on the short game if his ball striking holds up. There are safer plays on the One and Done board, but after last week it is worth taking a shot on a guy with some upside.
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