The British Open is here, and that means major money is up for grabs and all the best players in the world are teeing it up. The PGA Tour heads over to Royal St. George’s Golf Club in Sandwich, England. On the One and Done side this is one of the biggest purses remaining on the season. One and Done offers a bit of a different spin on things than the usual DFS golf strategy. With it being late in the year, a lot of the analysis depends on who is left and what the standings look like. Still, there is plenty to break down and a handful of players that should be on radars this week.
What is a One and Done pool?
A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.
Be sure to check out today’s PGA Strategy Show with Jason Rouslin and Ben Rasa at 1 p.m. ET where they will be breaking down the best PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as pinpointing some of the best PGA Vegas odds and betting picks for the British Open.
The John Deere Classic Recap
Before getting into the PGA One and Done picks this week, let’s recap last week’s stop at TPC Deere Run.
Seamus Power
It was another quality showing for Power on the PGA Tour. Rarely does someone with no status and no form suddenly come out of nowhere and play golf this consistently. The eighth-place finish was good enough for $181,000 and gave Power more crucial points for the FedEx cup. He could again be in the One and Done conversation if he is able to get into a few more weak fields as the season ends.
Brian Harman
Harman was an obvious chalky golfer when factoring in opportunity cost last week. Most people had Harman available, and he came in with fantastic form to a course he excels at. Unfortunately for Harman backers, he was unable to get much going, and the result was a missed cut at an easy event. While the opportunity cost was minimal, $0 payouts are always tough to overcome. Harman now heads to Royal St. George’s where he will be an afterthought in One and Done conversations.
Lucas Glover
Only around 1% of teams went to Glover last week in One and Done, so it was a stretch to have him on the radar. The result was a much-needed return to the winner’s circle for Glover and a $1.16 million payday. These lesser-field events provide winners at such low ownership, and that can be a season saver. He will mostly likely will not be used by most people during the PGA One and Done season.
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British Open PGA One and Done Picks This Week
Jordan Spieth
Like most top-end players, the availability of Spieth is in question. For those who have not used him yet, this is probably the time to deploy, as he is built for these type of adverse conditions British Opens usually provide. He already has a British Open win on his resume and comes in playing consistent golf all season.
Spieth has world-class short game, and his ball striking is not a liability anymore. He has gained strokes in all four categories in three straight tournaments. If he can continue to be plus with his off-tee game, Spieth is one of the safest options on the board and an obvious One and Done target. He is firmly in play in DFS, but Awesemo’s Premium ownership projections have him as one of the highest-owned players this week.
Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton is a notorious links specialist who has multiple wins at links venues in Europe. He has made the transition to the PGA Tour, but all that experience does not just go away. He should be most comfortable on his home turf, and his game is built for the weather and layout Royal St George’s provides.
The biggest issue for Hatton is can he start to perform in majors like he does in regular events. He is coming off a missed cut at the U.S. Open and has missed far too many weekends at the biggest tournaments of the year. He does have a pair of top-10 finishes in British Opens, so the upside is there, but Hatton needs to avoid the blow-up rounds. He is a bit more of an aggressive play, but the British Open is the major best suited for his game. For DFS, Awesemo’s Premium Pro Plays have Hatton as someone to consider in GPPs this week.
Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.Matthew Fitzpatrick
Before his transition to the PGA Tour, Fitzpatrick was a prominent winner in Europe at a young age and had several marquee wins at links-style courses. He is similar to Hatton in that his major form is not nearly good enough considering how much talent Fitzpatrick has. With just one top-10 on his major resume, he needs to start putting together better showings against the world’s best fields.
Coming into Royal St George’s, Fitzpatrick can do exactly that. He is not super long but still has gained strokes off the tee in every event in 2021. That should set him up with a lot of reasonable approach shots, and his short game is world class. Fitzpatrick is still just 26 and has plenty of experience in these types of fields, so the struggles at majors are not overly concerning. In terms of One and Done this week, he should not get a ton of interest considering how strong the field is.
British Open One and Done Pick: Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton is not going to be an obvious choice like Spieth, but he has a little more substance to his game lately than Fitzpatrick. Hatton’s name is at the top of the list for links performance, and that is invaluable experience heading into this test.
Like all players in this field, Hatton needs to catch breaks with his tee time and the weather, but that is outside his control. If he can settle in and avoid the blow-up holes, there is no reason he cannot get firmly into contention and log his best finish at a major.
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