PGA One and Done Picks & Analysis: AT&T Pebble Beach

One and Done season continues this week as we head to Pebble Beach for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This event is known for the celebrities teeing it up alongside the players, but this year all of that is different due to the COVID situation. Instead of a three-course rotation, players will be dealing with just two courses, which makes things easier when breaking down this field. On the PGA One and Done picks side, there is a weaker 156-man field, which opens up the possibilities.

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What is a One and Done pool?

A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.

Waste Management Open Recap

Brooks Koepka

Coming off a handful of missed cuts, it was no surprise Koepka was not widely rostered in most One and Done pools. His charge on Sunday while the leaders were stagnant allowed him to grab a much-needed win, earning $1.3 million for those who took him. Getting a winner at a low ownership can be the difference late in the year, and this one would go a long way for anyone that was able to pull it off.

Rickie Fowler

After a few quality ball-striking performances, a lot of people were high on Fowler coming into Waste Management. His last win was at the event and he historically loves the greens, which would be perfect timing for his ice-cold putter. Unfortunately for Fowler, the putting woes continued as he lost another 3 strokes on the greens en route to a missed cut. It was a swing and a miss for anyone that went there in One and Done, but the one silver lining is you didn’t burn a major player.

Scottie Scheffler

This was my pick, and it was another risky move since Scheffler was under 5% across most pools. I really liked the spot for him, and he responded by immediately getting into contention and staying there throughout the week. Unfortunately on Sunday he fell down the board, and his seventh-place finish felt like a missed opportunity given where he was most of the tournament. Still, it was a nice $200,000 payday for Scheffler, and outside of Koepka he was one of the preferred targets.

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Pebble Beach One and Done Picks

Patrick Cantlay

If you haven’t used Cantlay yet this season, to me there are only two gameplans available. First is you use him here, as he is the 7-1 favorite thanks to Dustin Johnson withdrawing. If you do not play him this week, I believe you should be holding him for an upper-tier event such as a major, as that is the only reason to not use him here. Personally, he would be the guy I would go to if I had him available because everything checks out this week. The ball striking, consistency and win equity all make this a pretty easy sell, and I don’t mind not having him available for the rest of the year.

Jason Day

With this field being so weak, we are going to be forced into some interesting situations if we avoid the extreme top. On paper (and for name recognition) Jason Day seems fine. He has a world-class resume and absolutely loves this event, with four straight top-five finishes. His game should translate here and has in the past, but the recent form is extremely concerning. That is why this pick carries some risk.

Last week Day missed the cut at Waste Management to make it two straight misses to begin 2021. It wasn’t the ball striking, which is a good sign, but the -5.1 strokes gained putting is a massive concern for a once top-notch putter. He will need to flip that around if he wants to compete, but historically he has been able to do so, especially at this venue.

Jordan Spieth

I had to include Spieth after last week, as he launched back into everyone’s hearts and minds with his performance in the desert. Spieth finished fourth behind a massive 7.8 strokes gained with the irons and another 4 with the putter. It was a vintage performance from a guy who has been search for form, but the question remains, can he sustain it?

We have seen Spieth show signs before only to return to his struggles mostly because of his horrible off-tee game. He also has a ton of success here at Pebble Beach, and there is no doubt in this weak field he is worthy of consideration, especially if you think he actually found something last week. This is a great opportunity to use him since it’s a stretch to want to save him for a larger event given the uncertainty about his game on the whole.

My One and Done Pick: Jason Day

I used Cantlay earlier this year, so that is the only reason I am not recommending him here. He is the safest play on the board, and this feels like a good week to take a top-end guy given the strength of the field. However, with him not available I am going to Day despite the form and think this is still the spot to target him. Of course, I wish his putter were in better shape, but you cannot argue with four straight top-five finishes.

If Day continues to strike the ball well, the results will follow, and this early in the year I am not going to overreact to a few bad starts. Koepka was coming off a few missed cuts heading into Waste Management, and we saw the results there. I will try and copy that formula in this spot with Day.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].