PGA One and Done Picks & Analysis for The Masters at Augusta National

In every sports calendar there are a few days that are circled from the start, and for the PGA Tour The Masters is at the top of the list. The tour has four majors a year, but for most the Masters sits above the rest. Being held at Augusta National every year allows viewers to connect with the course, whereas the other majors are played at rotating venues. Coming off a Valero Texas Open that saw Jordan Spieth break a multi-year winless drought and cash a $1.3 million check, the storylines will be writing themselves for what will be a fantastic week ahead. For PGA One and Done picks, this is an absolutely crucial week with millions of dollars up for grabs.

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What is a One and Done pool?

A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week, you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure.

The Valero Texas Open Recap

Jordan Spieth

The article was on point last week, as Spieth made the short list given his career renaissance. That was confirmed by his four days of incredible tee-to-green game and spectacular play Sunday to avoid being chased down by Charley Hoffman. Spieth checked all the boxes, and anyone who went with the chalk was rewarded with a winner’s purse. For those who didn’t use Spieth, he will once again be a reasonable One and Done option this week given his love affair with Augusta and the red-hot form he has right now.

Charley Hoffman

I didn’t have Spieth available and had to go here last week, and Hoffman certainly returned value. After sitting 5 over at one point on Thursday, he went absolutely nuts and found himself in contention on Sunday to pull off the win. He ultimately finished second for a $839,000 payday. Hoffman isn’t a guy who is in consideration much for One and Done, so the opportunity cost of using him was minimal, and it worked out perfectly at Valero.

Ryan Moore

The good news was that Moore found the weekend, which means he cashed a check. The bad news is the 76th-place finish is a $14,000 payday, which is barely a drop in the bucket for One and Done pools. Moore simply couldn’t avoid the blowup holes, carding a quadruple bogey on Saturday that shut the door of any major payday. It was better than a missed cut but still not worth much.

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The Masters at Augusta One and Done Picks

Jordan Spieth

Those who have him available must consider Spieth at Augusta. He is on fire coming off a win, and his game has been steadily improving all year. Spieth has been positive tee to green in every event in 2021, and pairing that kind of ball striking with his putter is deadly. His off-tee game still can be an issue at times, but Spieth comes into Augusta playing as well as he has in many years.

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy has been live to win at Augusta for the last few years. He should have won in 2018 but gave it away late and then just wasn’t able to find the form in 2019, which was the last time this event was in April. McIlroy finished fifth in November, but those results are not worth much since the course will play much differently this go-around. The big question mark is where his game is, as McIlroy is coming in off a missed cut at The Players. He lost six strokes putting at TPC Sawgrass, but his off-tee game needs to get back to its dominant form that it has had in years past.

McIlroy comes in with a few more concerns than usual, he still has the skills to handle Augusta and the talent to blow a field away. In 2021 his two missed cuts came with an average of -5 strokes gained putting. His tee-to-green game needs to be sharper, but he has still shown flashes of that, and outside the pair of missed cuts, McIlroy has finished 16th or better in every other start. There are a ton of superstars on the slate, so ownership shouldn’t be there in One and Done. That furthers interest in a guy that has the top-end game needed for him to complete the career grand slam.

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Jon Rahm

This is The Masters, so most of the top-end players are still available to deploy in One and Done. Part of the strategy during the year is knowing when to save the best players in the world and when to use them in hopes to capture a huge payday. One of the names that has to be considered is Rahm, who should be in good spirits after his first child was born over the weekend. The potential situation of him leaving mid-tournament was avoided, and now it’s all systems go for one of the world’s best.

Although Rahm hasn’t won in 2021, he is a model of consistency, with zero missed cuts and top-10s in four of six starts. He is basically automatic to gain off the tee, and that sets him up to attack these par 5’s. It is still early in the week, it is unknown what type of course to expect, but Rahm seems poised to handle any conditions that Augusta may have. His putter isn’t a liability, but it has been quiet for most of the year. That will need to change if he wants to break through and win his first major. There are not a ton of red flags with Rahm right now, and he clearly makes sense in One and Done this week.

My Masters One and Done Pick: Rory McIlroy

McIlroy is the only one of those three who is available, so that made the decision easier. I probably still would have gone McIlroy given he may be unpopular with the high-quality player pool this week. Rahm is playing more consistent golf and probably has a higher median output, but McIlroy still has the experience and game to succeed at Augusta.

McIlroy has made 10 straight Masters cuts, and even if he doesn’t bring the A-game, it’s hard to imagine he will not find the weekend. He needs to avoid the rounds where the putter completely goes away, but his vast experience at this course is a major asset. If he can get out to a quick start, which is something that’s plagued him at times, he should be in position to contend on Sunday.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].