The PGA’s second Mexican stop of the year occurs this week, and it just so happens that the Mayakoba Classic will also put a bow on 2020 for the PGA as well. Normally, this event would come a little earlier in November, but the warm climate allowed it to be pushed back a little further in the COVID-adjusted schedule. The Mayakoba Classic (once known as the OHL Classic) was initially held in February when it came on tour back in 2007 but moved to November in 2013 and has stayed there ever since. While the event doesn’t normally attract a ton of big names to it, multi-time PGA winners like Harris English, Charley Hoffman and Matt Kuchar have all found wins here. The event has always been one that has been dominated by veterans too with four of the last five winners here being aged 34 years or older by the week of their win. Either way, there is a ton of data to break down. We’re making PGA DFS picks and building fantasy golf lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Mayakoba.
As for the course, El Camaleon is a resort-style setup that is set up just off the coast of the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea and can be made much trickier on a windy day. Luckily for the players, though, the venue typically doesn’t get much wind this time of year, and conditions in the fall have led to tons of birdies, with the winner often getting to 19 under or better. In 2019 it played as the ninth-easiest course on tour and presents players with easy par 3’s (three of the four are under 165 yards) and easy par 5’s (all three are under 560 yards). There are five par 4’s that measure in over 450 yards but with easy-to-hold paspalum greens — the field here averaged around 68% greens in regulation. Of the last five winners here, none ranked in the top 20 in the field for driving distance, and last year Brendon Todd ranked just 25th in driving accuracy and near the bottom in driving distance. To be clear, this event is all about approaches and around-the-green play, so make sure you’re not over-emphasizing off-tee stats for this one.
El Camaleon Course Stats and Info
• Last year’s winner ranked fourth in greens in regulation and third in scrambling. Each of the past five winners here ranked inside the top-10 in greens in regulation.
• Solid iron-play definitely seems like the thing to emphasize, and good around-the-green play may also be something to consider, as winners have tended to outperform in that area too.
• Venue contains five par 4’s that rank between 450 and 500 yards, and good par-4 recent form and efficiency are other things to consider.
Mayakoba Classic PGA DFS Picks | DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups
Russell Henley: Grades: A, Values: A
Henley pops up as a strong play in pretty much every fantasy golf facet this week. His salary on DraftKings took a significant slide downwards after the RSM, where he managed just a 30th-place finish but still outperformed several of the top players in the field just by making the weekend. Henley has perhaps cooled off on the greens of late, but this is still a player who is hitting the ball so consistently right now that he just may be the best pure iron player in the world. Over his last 12 events, Henley has now gained at least 1.8 strokes on his approaches against the field and has gained three strokes or more in nine of those starts. The run he is on from a ball-striking perspective is staggering, and he ranks ahead of even Justin Thomas in the shots gained on approach in this field over the last 50 rounds.
The model on Awesemo this week loves him too, as he has the best points projection of anyone under $10,000 in salary and the best value score of anyone priced over $8,000 on DraftKings as well. His lack of course history (two starts, a 29th and a missed cut) is also a little misleading, as he only missed the cut here in 2019 because of a silly penalty (not his fault) which dropped him four strokes prior to Friday’s cut. The course sets up perfectly for such a deadly iron player, and Henley should be looking for a massive week here at the Mayakoba given that he’s not in the field for the April 2021 Masters yet.
The Stats:
• Ranks first in shots gained on approach over the last 50 rounds; hasn’t lost strokes on his approaches in 12 straight starts
• Ranks third in both par-4 scoring and birdie opportunities gained over the last 50 rounds
• Price decrease of over $1,000 on DraftKings since his last start
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 22.6%| FanDuel: 30.2%
Russell Knox: Grades: B, Values: B, A
Knox is an interesting PGA DFS pick this week. The veteran comes in off a missed cut, but the one bad performance shouldn’t be weighed too heavily. Prior to missing the cut at the RSM Classic, he had had landed back-to-back top-20 finishes and was trending well on his approaches. Knox ranked third in greens in regulation at the Bermuda Championship last month, an event at which he eventually finished 16th. While he has been inconsistent for much of 2020, there’s no doubt the signs of life he has shown of late are a good omen that more solid play is just around the corner.
Knox also has a fantastic record at this week’s event, as he lost in a playoff here in 2015, finished third in 2016 and ninth in 2017. Through six appearances he’s never missed a cut at El Camaleon and certainly has the style of game where any course that emphasizes iron play and fairways hit over power will benefit him. On Awesemo Knox has the best pure points fantasy golf projection of anyone under $8,000 this week on DraftKings and the fourth-best value score of anyone in the field. The missed cut at the RSM will also likely ensure his ownership will not get too crazy, making him a green light in GPPs too.
The Stats:
• Fourteenth in shots gained on approach and 18th in shots gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds
• Finished 16th or better in three of his last six cuts (also has three missed cuts in that span, but when he’s made the weekend, he’s factored into high-finishing GPP lineups)
• Six-for-six in cuts made at El Camaleon, with three top-10 finishes
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 9.1%| FanDuel: 3.9%
Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP flier
Kyle Stanley
Stanley is coming off a sixth at the RSM Classic where his irons were on absolute fire the entire event. The veteran gained 8.1 strokes on his approaches alone there and likely would have challenged for the win if he had not lost strokes on both his short game and on the greens. Stanley is very much a form player, and it is worth noting that prior to this finish, his best result on the season had come at the Puerto Rico Open, where he nabbed a third-place finish on paspalum-style greens, similar to the ones we’ll see this week. The style of setup here suits a player of his ilk too, as his lack of distance off the tee isn’t going to hamper him one bit here, while his strong iron play will only be enhanced by the nature of this course.
Stanley’s best fantasy golf results have almost all come at similar style venues to one in play this week at the Mayakoba. He’s had top-10 finishes over the last three years in places like TPC Southwind and Waialae Country Club, two venues which carry many of the same characteristics that El Camaleon does. Former winners of the Mayakoba Classic, English and Kuchar, have both taken wins at those previous venues too. Stanley is still projecting for low ownership here, and while his putter may hold him back from grabbing a win, especially if the event turns into a birdie-fest (likely), another strong fantasy golf week at $7,100 seems likely if his irons stay hot.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 4.7%| FanDuel: 2.4%
Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five
I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close to) 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Wes Bryan ($6,600)
I’m still a little shocked that people aren’t more interested in Bryan this week as his ownership projecting isn’t even challenging to be anywhere near 5% right now. He’s gained three strokes or more on his approaches in five of his last seven starts on tour and sets up perfectly for the venue given his style of game (i.e. distance off the tee doesn’t matter). He’s also playing on a major medical exemption (so every start counts), and I think he’s in for a quick bounce-back after being a chalk bust in Bermuda.
Pat Perez ($7,300)
Perez is coming in off of five missed cuts in a row, so you can understand why his ownership is way down below 5%. Still, he’s now shot 69 in two of his last four rounds on tour and he doesn’t appear to be struggling with any one aspect of his game. Perez has dominated this week’s event and course, posting three top-10 finishes here in his last four starts (including a win from 2016). If he’s going to bounce back and make the weekend soon, it’s going to be here at Mayakoba.
Camilo Villegas ($7,000)
After not playing much on the PGA Tour the last couple years, I can see why the general public doesn’t want to trust Villegas in DFS. The fact is, though, he’s trending very well in ball-striking and ranks out fifth and third in shots gained tee to green and and on approach over the last 12 rounds. A month ago he finished 23rd at the Sanderson Farms event while losing 5.7 strokes putting, which should be impossible. He’s made the cut here in four of five starts and is coming off his best finish on the PGA in quite some time at the RSM Classic, where the putter finally started to heat up. We could easily see continuation here, and he’s projecting as a sub-2%-owned PGA DFS pick.
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