All of my PGA DFS picks and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of my week-long written material for the Honda classic, and now it’s FREE!
I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making up to 450 lineups. As such, the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs. And so, if this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.
Article Index
- Key/Legend
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- My entire player pool
- Notes on the chalkiest players
Key/Legend
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
- PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
Last Week’s Recap
There is no hiding from this one … I didn’t even come close to cashing the mega Milly, crushing any chance at a profit unless I binked a GPP, which I did not. FanDuel was a success for the week, as my main lineup was a top-20 lineup in the $555.
Expected Weather:
Winds up to 20 mph will be around for much of the first two days, which could put this cut somewhere close to +5 or +6.
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Honda Classic PGA DFS Picks
Favorites
It’s not often that Will Gordon is the only one of my favorites teeing it up, but that’s what we have this week. I guess we could add Brandon Wu here as well.
PGA DFS Picks for The Honda Classic
Total Player Pool: 55
Week-Long DFS Contests
DraftKings
- (1) Mega Millionaire Ticket
- (300) Drive the Green contests in the main and secondary
- (1) $200 Driver Contest
- (25) $20 Millionaire Maker contests
FanDuel
- 1 $555
- 150 GPP lineups
Core Golfers (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price)
Sungjae Im ($11,000/$11,800)
With the news surrounding Daniel Berger and his injury this week, many gamers will likely pile into Joaquin Niemann, and some will filter up here. So I think the best way to gain leverage is to bet Niemann in the outright markets and fade him in DFS. I have employed this strategy a few times before, and I think it gives me the most leverage, so we’ll try it again this week. Im is in fine form but needs to clean up the around-the-green game if he’s to go back-to-back at the Honda.
Shane Lowry ($9,200/$11,100)
While a 20%-owned Lowry at these price levels is hard to stomach, he presents some of the highest upside in this area. The reining Open champion just found his game last week and will surely want to get at least another good finish under his belt before heading to Augusta. Coming into last week, he hadn’t recorded a top-10 since the FedEx St. Jude of last year, spanning more than 20 starts.
Russell Henley and Talor Gooch
I list these guys up here because they are a big part of my builds over on FanDuel this week but not quite as important for my DraftKings one. They could end up being a big part of why I profit or lose for the week, especially on FanDuel, so I thought it warranted putting them up here. It was pretty easy to roster them over Lowry given that Lowry is cheaper than both on DraftKings yet more expensive than both on FanDuel. Ownership, however, makes me interested in Lowry on FanDuel.
Doug Ghim ($8,800/$9,800)
This is another situation where the FanDuel price is much easier to roster than on DraftKings, but on DraftKings it looks like ownership will still be low. Ghim has been so close the last two weeks but can’t seem to play in contention on Sunday. That’ll come with reps; the triple bogeys will turn into single bogeys, and those bounce-back birdies will mean all that much more. At least I’m not backing Ghim coming off of a missed cut, and we know he’s in form.
Dylan Frittelli ($8,200/$9,900)
Having been off of his game a bit the last little spurt, Frittelli found it last week, coming in 22nd. He also showed up to play at the 2018 showing of this event, coming in the top 15, and this week is expected to see similar conditions to 2018. It won’t take much for me to roster guys this week, and I think Frittelli presents winning upside in this range.
J.T. Poston ($7,900/$9,600)
I love a grinder, and Poston is just that. He shot 78 on Thursday but bounced all the way back, made the cut and finished 22nd. If that’s not a sign that his game is coming around, then I don’t know what will be. I like his short game the first two days to get him through the cut again, and then anything can happen after that.
Brandon Wu ($7,800/$9,300)
One of these next two weeks could end up being Wu’s full-time ticket to the PGA Tour, and I’m not going to miss it. He has the pedigree. We have seen his game recently, and now he just needs to get it done when it counts the most.
Luke List ($7,500/$9,000)
I just mentioned the 2018 playing of this event. There were tough windy conditions throughout, and that was List’s best chance to win a PGA Tour event. While he has missed the cut the last two weeks, he hasn’t been far off and obviously gets a much weaker field here this week. His form before those two missed cuts was good enough to get me back into him here at PGA National.
Gambles of the Week: (Under $7,000 in a Big-Dollar Lineup)
I didn’t need to dip down here much this week, but I went to Kristoffer Ventura, Bo Hoag and Ryan Armour the most if I did.
[MARCHMADNESS]
Chalk Zone Key
This is how I’m allocating my shares to the expected chalk of the week. For this article, anyone projected over 10% for this week’s Honda Classic will be considered chalk. In order by salary:
O = Overweight
E = Equal Weight
U = Underweight
- Daniel Berger (I’ll have exactly zero shares this week)
- Lee Westwood (U)
- Joaquin Niemann (U)
- Adam Scott (E)
- Cameron Davis (E to O)
- Brendan Steele (E to O)
- Chris Kirk (E to U)
- Cameron Tringale (U)
- Wyndham Clark (E)
- Adam Long (E)
- Jon Vegas (E)
PGA DFS Fringe Players for DraftKings & FanDuel
* Likely to be in a higher-dollar lineup and 10-20% in GPPs
- Matt Wallace
- Alex Noren
- Zach Johnson
- Rory Sabbatini
PGA DFS Alternates (5-15% GPPs)
- Rickie Fowler
- Martin Kaymer
- Keegan Bradley
- Ian Poulter
- Michael Thompson
- James Hahn
- Rafa Cabrera Bello
- Nick Taylor
- Keith Mitchell
- Scott Stallings
- Scott Brown
PGA DFS Holes in One (1-5% GPPs)
- Nate Lashley
- Charl Schwartzel
- Chesson Hadley
- Bronson Burgoon
- Henrik Stenson
- Jamie Lovemark
- Tyler McCumber
- C.T. Pan
- Brice Garnett
- Brian Stuard
- Sam Ryder
- Kelly Kraft
- Patrick Rodgers
- Stewart Cink
- Peter Malnati
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