The Winning Element: The Masters PGA DFS Picks, Player Pool & Ownership Percentages | Jordan Spieth

All of my PGA DFS picks content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of my week-long written material for The Masters, and now it’s FREE!

[DUSTINGRAPHICAD]

I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making up to 450 lineups. As such, these allocations are likely not exact, but they are targets for the mass-entry GPPs. If this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.

Article Index

  • Key/Legend
  • Last week recap
  • TV schedule and weather update
  • My entire player pool
  • Notes on the chalkiest players

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

  • Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
  • PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
  • Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
  • Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
  • Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
  • Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
  • Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.

Last Week’s Recap

The odds of me getting rocked when Jordan Spieth wins are astronomical, and yet that is exactly what happened. It is a good thing there is the betting market helping to cover my losses when Spieth wins. It wasn’t for lack of playing him either. I was at 45%, about double the field on him and didn’t even sniff the top 100 in any GPP. I gave back about 20% of last week’s gain.

Expected Weather

Coming from the same geographic region as Augusta, I can say that there has been some pretty ideal weather. It has been unseasonably dry with just spurts of water, which should help the golf course dry out a bit. The wind is expected to possibly kick up Friday afternoon, but it should only gusts rather than constant. There does not seem to be a weather edge this week.


Latest PGA DFS Content


The Masters DraftKings & FanDuel PGA DFS Picks

The biggest tournaments always bring out the best players, and thus all of the favorites here to compete. There will be plentiful helpings of Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau this week. All of them will be a massive part of my success or subsequent failure.

PGA DFS Picks for The Masters

As is typical for majors, instead of breaking down the plays by Core, Fringe, Chalk, etc., the following sections are broken down by contest selection. I will go from the highest-dollar buy-ins to the medium-dollar buy-ins then to the large-field GPPs.

The Masters High-Dollar Buy-In Player Pool

This week I will be playing in the following:

  • (1) Mega Millionaire $4,444 (DraftKings)
  • (3) $555 Monsters (FanDuel)

Here are the players that make up my player pool for my four biggest lineups of the week. Remember, I can’t give exact lineups here, it’s against the DraftKings Player Conduct policy, but you should be able to glean where I’m rostering these guys by my commentary.

Salaries are listed in parenthesis as DraftKings/FanDuel.

Dustin Johnson ($11,500/$12,100 Projected 71.8 Points): As usual, it was easier to get the preferred highest-priced golfers in a lineup on FanDuel. Johnson’s form isn’t good at all, but his Augusta form is quite possibly better than Spieth’s, so he can’t fully be faded here.

Jon Rahm ($11,000/$11,700): In terms of time a golfer takes to prepare for the event, Rahm is behind everyone in that category. He just arrived on the grounds yesterday afternoon, after becoming a new father. While that worked out for Danny Willett a few years ago, Rahm’s price is a bit different than Willett’s. He is also in FanDuel lineups like Johnson.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,800/$11,900 Projected 72.6 Points): For the top spot in the Mega Milly lineup, it came down to Cantlay, DeChambeau and Justin Thomas. DeChambeau is the best choice here for the simple fact that he will be hitting more lower clubs into the fast greens than anyone else. The last time the tour saw this setup was at Winged Foot, where he absolutely dominated the competition. Now, these greens are much harder than those presented at Winged Foot, but the concept stands.

Justin Thomas ($10,600/$11,500 Projected 71.3 Points): Outside of the Mega Milly, Thomas holds some of the most important positions this week. The best guess for winner this week would be either him, DeChambeau or Spieth, but it was too hard to get Thomas in the Mega Milly with those two. Instead, he was rostered in multiple 555s and the single-entry, medium-dollar buy-ins on DraftKings.


Check out the full set of player projections here!


Patrick Cantlay ($9,800/$10,900): Rostering all three of Spieth, Cantlay and Morikawa was the first build of the week for the Mega Milly, but fast greens could really affect Morikawa. So then the plan was to find a fit with Cantlay and Spieth, but it just did not work. Therefore Cantlay got a bump down like Thomas and made most of the other important lineups.

Collin Morikawa ($9,600/$10,700): Single-entry stuff with Morikawa on DraftKings could see his ownership be under 5%. That makes for an easy play.

Jordan Spieth ($9,400/$10,900): Everyone should be all in on Spieth.

Patrick Reed ($9,300/$10,800): Conditions of firm greens should play right into Reed’s hands, as he won the 2018 Masters. Projected scoring for this tournament should produce similar results.

Lee Westwood ($8,800/$9,700) Again, it is way easier to fit Lee in on FanDuel. He has some pretty impeccable course history here at Augusta and looks to be quite low-owned.

Cameron Smith ($8,200/$9,900): With two top-fives here in four tries, plus one of those in the 2018 showing, Smith seems to love this golf course. He is also in good form, having won a round at TPC Sawgrass a few weeks ago.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,100/$10,100): With his price being so much higher on FanDuel, he should get lower ownership. Use Smith on DraftKings and Fitzpatrick on FanDuel because of that trying to gain leverage.

Sergio Garcia ($7,900/$9,400): It has been a rough go of it at Augusta since Garcia’s win, but he is in his best form in a while. Even for his win a few years ago, his lead-in form wasn’t nearly as good as this. There was not a spot for him on the Mega Milly team, so he is on one of the three $555 FanDuel teams.

Paul Casey ($7,700/$9,900): He may be the chalk of the week on DraftKings, but there’s a reason for it. Having one of the best seasons of any golfer this year, Casey also has some pretty good history around here, especially four to six years ago, where he had a stretch of three starts in a row at Augusta that finished in the top six.

Adam Scott ($7,600/$9,600): This is a pure ownership play. Louis Oosthuizen should be higher owned, especially on FanDuel, so employ Scott for leverage.

Jason Day ($7,500/$9,900): It has been a gamble to play him as he went through his swing changes, but it looks like they really paid off, as Day’s ball striking is in some of its best form in quite some time. Also, firm and fast greens should be absolutely ideal for Day this week.

Corey Conners ($6,900/$8,900): Setting up to be the chalk on DraftKings, try to fade that and get an edge on FanDuel where his ownership should be lower. That way, if he does play well, you will have leverage against the fade.

Matt Kuchar ($6,800/$8,800): Playing some of his best golf in some time, Kuchar had gone through a really rough patch at the beginning of this season. He looks ready, and his price is right, so buy into him here this week.

Brian Harman ($6,800/$9,100): The price discrepancy means use Harman where he’s cheaper, but this week he is getting the opposite treatment. Play him on FanDuel for bigger-dollar lineup this week.

Ryan Palmer ($6,500/$8,000)/Kevin Na ($6,500/$8,000)/Matt Wallace ($6,400/$8,000): All three of these guys will play big roles this week. One of them made the Mega-Millionaire lineup, allowing for stacking three golfers over $8,000 and two over $9,400. All three are in good form, while Na has the most history at Augusta.

The Masters DraftKings Single-Entries & $100 Millionaire Maker

This week I will be playing the following:

  • (2): $200 Drivers (DraftKings)
  • (1): $100 Long Drive (DraftKings)
  • (25-35): $100 Millionaire Maker lineups (DraftKings): A lot of the players listed above will make these lineups as well.

Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele ($10,000): Playing the worst of any stud in the field, their projected ownerships continues to go down. That will be exploited even more in the single-entry events, and I will be overweight in my $100 Milly Maker lineups.

Bubba Watson ($7,800): With so much focus going to Casey, Day, Oosthuizen, Smith, Fitzpatrick and Garcia, Watson could go under 5% owned in single entries.

Louis Oosthuizen ($7,500): Since he just missed out on all of the bigger-dollar lineups, he made all single-entry lineups, in hopes of going for made-cut equity rather than pure upside.

Joaquin Niemann ($7,400): One of the real question marks is how Niemann is going to handle Augusta this week, as he didn’t look comfortable in his first go-around as an amateur a few years ago. The firm greens could also be a challenge for him, so he has been demoted to these contests.

Gary Woodland ($6,800): It is not yet time to buy back into Woodland’s form being all the way back, but he could set up as a low-owned, cheap option that gets on the first couple pages of the leaderboard.

Si Woo Kim ($6,700): Kim has some of the most consistent history among golfers priced below $7,000 this week. He also looks to be in a good spot of form heading into The Masters this week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,700): With some of the best short game in the world, Bezuidenhout will tee it up at Augusta for the second time, this time in conditions that are much better suited for his game.

The Masters $10 Millionaire Maker on DraftKings

I will have 150 of 150 lineups with Spieth on it in this contest. Going against 400,000 other lineups and the first prize being the only prize worth caring about, we play to win the game. Having 150 of 150 lineups with the winner in it will provide the best chance to do it.

Other overweights in this contest:

  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Collin Morikawa
  • Lee Westwood
  • Cameron Smith
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • Adam Scott
  • Matt Kuchar
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Ryan Palmer
  • Kevin Na
  • Michael Thompson

Other GPPs

This week I’ll be entering the following

  • 150 FanDuel’s mega Eagle
  • 300 DraftKings Drive the Green

In these contests, I will build more to my standard structure, which is as follows:

  • Roughly 65 Golfers in the player pool
  • Top ownership of around 40% — will likely not be Spieth
  • Roughly 10 golfers owned over 20%
  • The biggest overweights include:
    • Dustin Johnson
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Adam Scott

I hope this helps you all fill out your lineups, and more importantly, I hope it helps you to a profitable week. Remember, a Paramount+ subscription is required to watch all the awesome coverage on The Masters through streaming devices.


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Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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