The Winning Element: The BMW Championship PGA DFS Picks, Ownership & Rankings | Hideki Matsuyama

All my PGA DFS content and picks this week are geared toward providing information that will help with your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and PGA odds and betting decisions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA picks material for DraftKings and FanDuel at the BMW Championship.

Article Index

• Key/Legend
• Last week recap
• TV schedule and weather update
• My entire player pool
• Notes on the chalkiest players

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation they should receive:

• Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
• Favorites: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%.
• Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely will not have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
• Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. This section will identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
• Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
• Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
• Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.

Last Week’s Recap

I had a chance after the third round, but Tony Finau winning pushed me down the leaderboard. Using Awesemo Projections from last week, Tom Hoge was one of the better values on the board. Add that to the overweight of Cameron Smith, Shane Lowry and Aaron Wise, which was a solid investment. The hunt for 6-for-6 continues in bigger-dollar lineups.

PGA DFS Picks This Week | The BMW Championship

The Weather

This week the summer breeze will not play much of a factor, with mid-80 temperatures and little wind projected throughout the four rounds.

The Favorites

While all of the favorites made it here this week, Jordan Spieth is coming off his worst performance in quite some time, and Collin Morikawa revealed an injury that he suffered during the Olympics. That leaves Patrick Cantlay, who did enough last week to earn a target again here.

Top Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Total expected player pool: 69

Expected number of lineups created: 300

Main Lineups: DraftKings $200

With just 69 golfers in the field, ownership and pricing are tight. Only Bryson DeChambeau is trending over 20% owned, as his elite scoring and course fit should yield close to 100 DFS points, according to the Awesemo Projections. This will lead to a tight core while matching the expected field average on a lot of golfers.

Bryson DeChambeau ($9,000 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel)

With 25 birdies and an eagle last week, DeChambeau scored better than anyone. But the lack of placement points and a multitude of bogeys or worse kept him from a top-10 score last week. This week plays into his hands even more so than last week, and he should be able to improve his finishing position with it. He is priced down the board, but in terms of scoring DeChambeau seems to be keeping up, so it is best to pay down and build a balanced lineup rather than stars and scrubs.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel)

For the first time in quite some time, Matsuyama lost strokes on his approaches for the week. Even still, it did not prevent him from making 24 birdies. But the big numbers piled up as well, with four doubles or worse on the week. He has not lost strokes on his approaches in back-to-back starts in over two years, so it is a good bet that will come back this week. If the putter stays warm, he should get into the top 10 with ease this week, especially with the limited field.

Cameron Champ ($7,300 DraftKings /$8,400 FanDuel)

A soft course that features drivable par 4’s and gettable par 5’s is a recipe for Champ to dominate. Similar conditions to the 2020 Masters could be in order this week, and Champ lit up the stat board that week. He is not so cheap that he is an obvious play, but he also has some risk associated, so it should not take much to get three or four times the field.

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PGA Picks Under $7,000 this week

Keith Mitchell ($6,500 DraftKings /$7,300 FanDuel)

Mitchell has gone on stretches where five or six birdies in a row jolt him up the leaderboard. Mitchell needed a top-10 to get into this week, and he could ride the momentum and if he pulls out something big at the BMW.

Aaron Wise ($6,300 DraftKings /$7,300 FanDuel)

Wise has scored over 70 points all but one time when playing four rounds since his missed cut at the RBC Heritage. That would easily give him 10x value, and like last week, it could mean a chance to win a GPP with all the right other pieces. That last spot in the lineup usually comes down to a scoring battle rather than a placement point battle.

PGA DFS Chalk Zone (Projected for 10%+ Ownership)

E= Equal-Weight to projected ownership.

U= Underweight to projected ownership.

O= Overweight to projected ownership.

1. Jon Rahm (E)
2. Justin Thomas (E to O): Close to a core play this week; he is getting hot at the right time.
3. Tony Finau (E to U)
4. Louis Oosthuizen (E)
5. Cameron Smith (E)
6. Rory McIlroy (E)
7. Viktor Hovland (E)
8. Scottie Scheffler (E)
9. Daniel Berger (U)
10. Abraham Ancer (U)
11. Webb Simpson (E to U)
12. Harris English (E to U)
13. Sam Burns (E)
14. Paul Casey (U)
15. Joaquin Niemann (E t O)
16. Sungjae Im (E)
17. Shane Lowry (U)
18. Charley Hoffman (U)
19. Corey Conners (E)

Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Brooks Koepka
4. Russell Henley
5. Jason Kokrak
6. Keegan Bradley
7. Harold Varner
8. Jhonattan Vegas
9. Maverick McNealy
10. Cam Davis
11. Max Homa
12. Hudson Swafford
13. K.H. Lee

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

1. Alex Noren
2. Kevin Na
3. Sergio Garcia
4. Cameron Triangle
5. Erik van Rooyen
6. Kevin Streelman
7. Si Woo Kim
8. Lee Westwood
9. Emiliano Grillo
10. Talor Gooch
11. Patton Kizzire
12. Harry Higgs

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

1. The Rest of the Field not listed

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