The Winning Element: The Nothern Trust PGA DFS Picks, Ownership & Rankings | Jordan Spieth

All my PGA DFS content and picks this week are geared toward providing information that will help with your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and PGA odds and betting decisions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA picks material for DraftKings and FanDuel at the Northern Trust.

Article Index

• Key/Legend
• Last week recap
• TV schedule and weather update
• My entire player pool
• Notes on the chalkiest players

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation they should receive:

• Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
• Favorites: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%.
• Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely will not have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
• Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. This section will identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
• Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
• Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
• Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.

Last Week’s Recap

Getting the fades right is only half the battle. The core still has to be good to have a good week, and mine might as well have been all the chalk that missed. Matthew Wolff could not make a birdie to save his life last week, while Mito Pereira’s and Charl Schwartzel’s runs ended. Then there is Talor Gooch, who was 4 under through his first three holes and missed the cut — at that point, having Henley and Munoz did not matter.

PGA DFS Picks This Week | The Northern Trust

The Weather

This week the summer breeze will not play much of a factor, with mid-80 temperatures and little wind projected throughout the four rounds.

The Favorites

All of the favorites are teeing it up in the first two rounds. Patrick Cantlay is the least in form of the three, while Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth are both trending in the right direction. It is not easy to get all three of them in the lineup, leaving just $6,533 per player for the remaining three, and it puts a ton of pressure on the cheaper guys to perform. While there are a few to like this week, especially for GPP MME formats, it is unlikely that all three will be in main lineups.

Top Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Total expected player pool: 83

Expected number of lineups created: 300

Main Lineups: DraftKings $200

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Rory McIlroy ($10,000 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel)

McIlroy went through a lull in the middle of the summer but was reinvigorated over the last month. He has been doing some of his best tee-to-green work in quite some time. With spread-out ownership and a good price, he seems like a good fit this week.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,00 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel)

Similar to McIlroy, Matsuyama is on a summer swing with his irons, gaining over 1.2 strokes in four straight and five of his last six. That included twice where he gained over two strokes for four rounds on average. Given that and his around-the-green game, he should be able to make enough putts on these easier greens to compete this week.

Tyrrell Hatton ($7,800 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)

Hatton’s putter has been icy cold these last few starts, but his around-the-green game and ball striking have both been there. Around the green he has been one of the best in this field, and given his propensity to do well in non-major events, this should be a good spot for Hatton to break out of the slump.

Ian Poulter ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel)

There is a bit of a European Ryder Cup feel to this part of the core, as all of them are trending in the right direction at the right time. Hatton, Poulter and Shane Lowry present great value and are in good form. Poulter and Lowry are a combined 13-for-13 in making the cut the last 12 weeks and have nine combined top-25s.

Shane Lowry ($7,500/$9,100)

Speaking of the Ryder Cup, Lowry is No. 6 in the point rankings, behind Victor Perez for the automatic qualifying spot, whereas Poulter is 13th. Both will need a good stretch of golf through the playoffs to earn that automatic qualification, or else they will be vying for one of the captain’s picks.

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PGA Picks Under $7,000 this week

Carlos Ortiz ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel)

With a few poor rounds during the last two weekends, Ortiz’s results have not matched up with his form. If he can mitigate the big numbers this week and maintain the high-end form, he is a good bet to get inside the top 15. At $6,900 and carding a few good rounds recently, he is a high-reward, low-risk play this week.

Maverick McNealy ($6,900 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel)

Lately consistency has been the key for McNealy, who enters the week with four straight top-25s and five straight top-30s. At these salaries and this form, it is hard to pass up. His putter is a weapon when he is on, and if he is on for a few rounds this week, he will be in the money in a hurry.

Aaron Wise ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel)

Consistency has not been the key for Wise, who found himself making plenty birdies last week but still could not compete. That is due in large part to the big numbers that continue to plague him. On Sunday, after going out to a comfortable 32, Wise came to the 14th and made an absolute mess of things. So now he gets a price decrease because of that and is in the bottom third of the field. If he can get to the weekend, he is a sure bet to pay off the salary, but getting him there has been the problem.

PGA DFS Chalk Zone (Projected for 10%+ Ownership)

E= Equal-Weight to projected ownership.

U= Underweight to projected ownership.

O= Overweight to projected ownership.

1. Jon Rahm (E to U)
2. Justin Thomas (E to U)
3. Viktor Hovland (E)
4. Bryson DeChambeau (E to U)
5. Abraham Ancer (E to U)
6. Scottie Scheffler (E to U)
7. Daniel Berger (E)
8. Webb Simpson (E to U)
9. Harris English (E to U)
10. Paul Casey (E to O)
11. Patrick Reed (E)
12. Cameron Smith (E to O)
13. Adam Scott (E)
14. Tony Finau (E)
15. Joaquin Niemann (E to O)
16. Matthew Fitzpatrick (E to U)
17. Sungjae Im (E to U)
18. Russell Henley (E to U)

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Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

1. Dustin Johnson
2. Brooks Koepka
3. Sam Burns
4. Sergio Garcia
5. Billy Horschel
6. Kevin Streelman
7. Cameron Champ
8. Phil Mickelson
9. Sebastian Munoz
10. Branden Grace
11. Max Homa
12. Jhonattan Vegas
13. Gary Woodland
14. Seamus Power
15. Hank Lebioda

Of these golfers, Harold Varner III has the most projected points, with 67.9. Click here to see the rest of the field.

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

1. Cameron Tringale
2. Bubba Watson
3. Emiliano Grillo
4. Matthew Wolff
5. Cam Davis
6. Charley Hoffman
7. Brendon Todd
8. Garrick Higgo
9. Adam Hadwin
10. Mackenzie Hughes
11. Erik van Rooyen
12. Harold Varner III
13. Matt Wallace
14. Luke List
15. Chesson Hadley
16. Doug Ghim
17. C.T. Pan
18. Joel Dahmen

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

1. Jason Day
2. Marc Leishman
3. Alex Noren
4. Lee Westwood
5. Roger Sloan
6. Chris Kirk
7. Talor Gooch
8. Kyle Stanley
9. Harry Higgs
10. James Hahn
11. Sam Ryder
12. Martin Laird
13. Tyler McCumber
14. Hudson Swafford
15. Anirban Lahiri
16. Brandon Hagy
17. Andrew Putnam
18. Kramer Hickok
19. Denny McCarthy
20. Keith Mitchell
21. Matt Kuchar

Only Wyndham Clark is projected to score over 60 points this week.

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