Patrick Reed will make it to East Lake for the Tour Championship, making it 30 golfers competing for the top prize in golf — $15 million to first place and a total prize pool of almost $50 million. PGA DFS prize pools are also massive, with first place being awarded $250,000 and $1 million guaranteed. This week I will provide my DFS golf advice, how I expect the leaderboard to shake out and the best PGA DFS picks and bets of the week.
Article Index
- Legend
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- The entire leaderboard 1-30
Legend
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation they should receive:
- Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
- Favorites: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely will not have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. This section will identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
Last Week’s Recap
Last week had the makings of a great lineup but failed to pull the trigger on anything big. The Patrick Cantlay/Bryson DeChambeau stack was huge, but the underperformance from Hideki Matsuyama and Cameron Champ prevented anything big. Aaron Wise and Scottie Scheffler were the other two in the lineup, and they provided a fine return.
PGA DFS Picks This Week | The Tour Championship
Weather
The summer breeze will not play much of a factor this week, with mid-80s temperatures and little wind projected throughout the four rounds.
The Top 10
Patrick Cantlay: $13,400DraftKings, $12,800 FanDuel
Many will point to the incredible putting display Cantlay put on last week, but his ball striking has also been trending over the past few weeks as well. He has never played all that well here, but even when this tournament did not use this format, he never had a shot to take down the FedEx Cup. Cantlay is in pole position to do so this year, and in the end the minus-10 handicap will be too much to overcome given how well he is playing.
Jon Rahm: $13,000 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel
If anyone can overcome a 3-shot lead, it is Rahm. His play this entire year has been far beyond anyone else on tour, considering he has not finished outside of the top 10 in almost five months. Even though he is one of the highest-priced golfers on the slate, he will also be one of the highest owned.
Tony Finau: $11,800 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
The big change for Finau is that he looks remarkably comfortable and confident with his putter right now. If that continues to bear fruit for him, he is going to be at the top of the leaderboard almost every week he plays, and he should be in consideration for the Ryder Cup squad.
Jordan Spieth: $10,400 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
It would be astonishing to see the year of the comeback for Spieth capped off with a FedEx Cup win, but starting 6 back of Cantlay and 3 back of Rahm, it will be too much come Sunday. Still, a top-five in the season-long race will feel like a huge win given where he started the year.
Rory McIlroy: $9,300 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
McIlroy is starting to play his best golf; he just needs his iron play to pick up this week. It is the only thing holding him back, as he gained at least a stroke and half with the other three categories. He has the best history here of any golfer, with two wins in the last six years.
Xander Schauffele: $8,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Schauffele has been in a lull since his breakthrough Olympic Gold Medal win. He dominated the event last year but still was not able to make up the handicap, finishing in second to Dustin Johnson. The year before that he also finished in second place. The course seems to fit him better than any other on tour, and there is no reason to fade that at these prices. He, Johnson, McIlroy, Spieth and Justin Thomas will be the five to challenge the top of the board from 5 shots back or more to start the event.
Justin Thomas: $11,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Thomas’ putting woes have been well documented and plagued him again last week, as he lost just shy of two strokes over the four rounds. But East Lake has proven to be a place where he finds the putting stroke, as he has never finished worse than ninth in his five trips.
Dustin Johnson: $10,700 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
Consistency has not been there for Johnson over the past three months, as he has four missed cuts and only three top-10s. But the three top-10s have come in the last five weeks, though he has missed cuts sandwiched among them. He will not be cut this week and will play all four rounds, something that has yielded success recently.
Sam Burns: $8,500 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Many of the previous eight golfers are more conservative choice, and the last two spots are more curveballs. Burns has been on fire lately, with half of his rounds in the last three tournaments ending 65 or better. With another two of those he will be in the top 10 in terms of DFS Scoring and likely the tournament.
Sungjae Im: $7,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Im is coming into the week in the best form he has had in well over three months. He moved to the Atlanta area this year and has also put in two good performances here in his two trips.
Positions 11-20
Abraham Ancer: $9,600 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Ancer has struggled around the greens this year, ranking outside of the top 125 on tour. That will shine this week if he plays to his statistical norm, which is the reason a lot of these golfers listed here may not end up in the top 10 this week. Ancer still provides nice upside and likely lower ownership this week.
Brooks Koepka: $7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Koepka can climb into the top 5, but he could also easily finish outside the top 20 is bound to happen. His tremendous upside comes with his tendency to just collect a paycheck risk and thus presents a fun option in PGA DFS formats.
Collin Morikawa: $8,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
The one good sign going for Morikawa is that his irons seemed to come back over the weekend at the BMW Championship. He gained over 3.5 strokes in the two rounds, though his back injury has certainly hurt him. It could be affecting him more in his short game than his irons, as his putter has gone icy cold. He will not need to make as many putts this week, but he will need to make enough to get inside the top 10. If he matches the field in strokes gained putting, then top-10 upside is there.
Viktor Hovland: $8,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
The amount of time spent working on and around the greens has seemingly deserted him the last few weeks. His frustration boiled over to the point where he broke his putter at the Northern Trust. He did not really recover last week, losing another 1.6 strokes around the green. That stat will be important this week, with the percentage of greens hit in regulation likely to keep him out of the top 10 this week.
Scottie Scheffler: $6,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Scheffler was one of the big surprises last year, roaring from the bottom of the back. The difference between this year and last is the form leading in. Last year he had shot 59 just a few weeks prior to the event. He did flash a bit of form last week at the BMW Championship, which makes him intriguing at these price levels.
Sergio Garcia: $5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
I initially Corey Conners was here, but Garcia is comparable to Conners in terms of skillset, and he is better around the green. He is also cheaper but is likely to come with more ownership.
Patrick Reed: $5,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Reed will not give up a chance to solidify his spot on the Ryder Cup Team. As the last person to be priced, Reed starts the week in 30th. He needs to show he is in form if he is to be chosen for the team, and something inside the top 15 will help his case.
Cameron Smith: $10,100 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Smith’s tee game will overshadow his elite short game. He is one of the biggest decliners of the week.
Bryson DeChambeau: $12,300 DraftKings, $12,600 FanDuel
A golf course that does not favor the bombers all that much and forces golfers to be good around the green is the absolute worst setup for DeChambeau. Mix in the off the golf course shenanigans, and he becomes an easy fade at these price levels this week.
Hideki Matsuyama: $6,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Matsuyama has shown a bit more upside over Conners and Jason Kokrak. He is likely to get the spot in PGA DFS lineups as well.
Positions 21-30
Corey Conners: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Good ball striking will only go so far. At this price, Conners is not a terrible option for DFS, however.
Erik van Rooyen: $5,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
The Cinderella story of the PGA Tour Playoffs, van Rooyen comes into the week likely the highest of anyone. It is a huge stage for him, and a massive paycheck awaits regardless of his finish this week. Throw in the minimum price, and it is a good spot to take a risk on the story continuing.
Harris English: $8,800 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
After a fantastic year, English has not been as sharp lately. Last week he could not get anything going and struggled with the putter until Sunday. That happens with a golfer who heavily relies on the flat stick for solid results. If that disappears, so do the top-10s.
Jason Kokrak: $6,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Kokrak is riding a great Sunday where he shot a 6-under 66 and gained over two strokes putting. If that putter warms up again and he is in the top five in greens in regulation, then that breakout could come to fruition. He is a solid option at these price levels this week.
Louis Oosthuizen: $7,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
If the neck injury bothers Oosthuizen again this week, then he may fall fast. If it does not, he should be able to putt his way into the top 15. The risk remains one of the largest in the entire field. Especially with the top-five upside of Koepka just: $200 more, Oosthuizen is an easy pass this week.
Joaquin Niemann: $5,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Niemann is not a great fit for East Lake, as he struggled last year in his first appearance here. It requires work around the green, and Niemann ranks outside of the top 140 this year.
Kevin Na: $6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Na could be the Mackenzie Hughes of this year, where his short game is so good that he becomes a valuable piece to the lineup. Even though he projects to be in the bottom five of the tournament, he makes for a good piece.
Stewart Cink: $5,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
An incredible year for Cink will end with another solid paycheck . However, he is unlikely to beat many of the golfers in the field, especially when he is spotting them shots at the beginning of the tournament.
Daniel Berger: $5,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Easily the biggest fade of the week, Berger’s course fit is like Niemann’s except he is in worse form, more expensive and projected for more ownership.
Billy Horschel: $5,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Like Berger, Horschel has bad form, bad course history but not as much ownership. There is just nothing exciting this week.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[PGAPAGE]
