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Aristides Aquino a Safe HR Bet Tonight (+525)? Expert MLB Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions | Friday, July 9, 2021




Awesemo's free expert MLB picks, Vegas betting odds, predictions and player props today with Aristides Aquino home run picks | July 9, 2021

Today has a full slate, so let’s dig right into the player props. After looking at all the MLB Vegas odds and betting lines, below are some of the best free expert MLB picks, player props and predictions for Friday, July 9.

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Expert MLB Player Prop Predictions & Vegas Odds

Jordan Lyles Under 5.5 strikeouts: -166 (FanDuel)

This is a much easier bet to click compared to the ones Awesemo’s model suggested in the MLB team betting article. Jordan Lyles has been a fringe major league pitcher his whole career. His stats this year are vomit inducing. He is sporting a 17-degree launch angle, 40% hard hits and only 18% strikeouts. He is facing the Athletics, who have power up and down the lineup and have recently cut down on swings and misses to boot. Matt Olson, their best power and overall hitter, only has a 16% strikeout rate, and that is nothing short of excellent. Lock in the under with confidence here.

Alex Cobb Over 5.5 strikeouts: +102 (FanDuel)

Alex Cobb has been amazing of late. He has had an xFIP below 3.00 in five of his last seven starts and has gone deep in games while sporting close to a double-digit swinging strike rate. Combining these metrics, his start against the swing-happy Mariners, the 5.5 Vegas total for strikeouts seems way too low. On top of that, it is also at plus odds. This is a mouthwatering betting spot, and Awesemo’s Props Model has this bet as a 63% winner on average.

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Aristides Aquino to Hit a Home Run: +525 (BetMGM)

It is nice to bet big odds on home runs, as the long ball is as prevalent as ever in MLB this year. Aristides Aquino is not a household name just yet but has prodigious power to all fields and gets to face a southpaw on the right side of the platoon split tonight. Eric Lauer has been good at limiting hard hits this year, but he is still giving up an 18.3-degree launch angle, which is leading to 8.3% barrels and an xSLG of .419. Aquino has a small sample size after coming back from injury about a month ago, but he has 47.8% hard hits and an xSLG of .625, which would be top five in the league if he qualified. He is in an amazing spot at +525 odds tonight in Milwaukee.

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