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Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 16

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Using our OddsShopper tool, we’ll take a look at some of the best NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 16 of the NFL Season. OddsShopper allows you to see which picks have the best expected return on investment (xROI) as well as where you can find the best line for each pick. Making sure to get the best line available is crucial, which makes OddsShopper an important weapon in any sports bettors arsenal. Let’s check out the picks!

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New Orleans Saints (+3)

Best Line: FanDuel

The Saints are underdogs against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football this week. That’s largely due to the uncertainty of their quarterbakc situation. Both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian will miss the game due to covid. However, OddsShopper says that shouldn’t be the case. The Saints Spread has a 73% chance of winning (xWin%) and a 17% xROI, both of which are the best on the week.

That pick makes sense for a few reasons. First, New Orleans opened up as a 3.5 point favorite in this game, before the quarterback news. While starting a rookie 4th-rounder at quarterback isn’t ideal, neither was starting Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian. It’s hard to say that Hill was worth six or so points on the spread.

Second, the line stands out on FanDuel. Most books have this game as a 1.5-point spread, but it’s three there. Three points in a key number in the NFL. A large percentage of games are won or lost by one, two, or three points, so getting a three point spread is a big advantadge. FanDuel might come off that line by the time you read this, but OddsShopper gives the Saints a 69% chance to win this game outright. Smaller spreads are still a good play here as long as the Saints are the underdog.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5)

Best Line: Bet Rivers

Unlike the Saints game, this spread is pretty uniform across most books. Like that choice though, 8.5 is an important number for making NFL picks against the spread. The key number here is seven, with many games finishing within a touchdown. Getting the extra point and a half helps too though, since this bet would win even if the Steelers lose by eight. (We’d much rather win our bets than push them!)

OddsShopper gives the Steelers a 60% chance to at least cover the spread in this one, good for an xROI of 8%. The top weapons for the Chiefs (Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill) are both questionable with Covid, so that uncertainty is baked into this line. If both play, the Cheifs will likely close as a bigger favorite than they currently are. However, it might be tough to cover a big spread with even one of the pair missing. Pittsburgh could focus their defense on the remaining player, and at least keep things close. Make sure you get at least 7.5 poitns if you’re taking the Steelers here though.

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Detroit Lions (+7)

Best Line: FanDuel

It’s underdog week at OddsShopper, with the top three NFL picks against the spread all getting points. The Lions round out the trio as they travel to Atlanta. Detroit has played well (relatively) as of late, winning two of their last three after starting the season 0-10-1. They also are expected to get D’Andre Swift back, which is a boost to their offense. Atlanta is heading in the other direction, losing two of three.

Like the Saints pick, the value here is in getting to the key number of seven. Detroit is only getting six or 6.5 points everywhere else, but FanDuel is giving seven in exchange for some extra juice (their line is -118). With three and seven being the most important numbers in the NFL, that makes a big difference. OddsShopper gives this pick an xROI of 5%.

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