With only one college basketball game remaining in the 2021 season, Baylor takes on Gonzaga for the NCAA National Championship. DraftKings and FanDuel continue to provide sizable contests for CBB DFS grinders. Examining the slate for the National Championship, a number of core CBB DFS picks stand out. Likewise, a number of core bets stand out against the market using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.
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CBB DFS Picks & National Championship Bets: DraftKings + FanDuel
Baylor vs. Gonzaga
With just two losses heading into the NCAA Tournament, Baylor defeated Hartford, Wisconsin, Villanova, Arkansas and Houston on its way to the finals. On the other side, Gonzaga hopes to continue its undefeated season after beating Norfolk State, Oklahoma, Creighton, USC and UCLA. As it stands, Gonzaga is a 4.5-point favorite over Baylor in a game with a 159.5-point total.
Favored all tournament long, Gonzaga has its tightest spread to date. While the Bulldogs narrowly snuck by UCLA, Gonzaga’s full body of work is unparalleled. Gonzaga won 29 of 31 games by double-digit points — 25 of those by at least 14 points. Gonzaga also faced elite competition in this span, including Virginia, West Virginia, Iowa and Kansas prior to the tournament. Even the UCLA game showed Gonzaga’s elite play. The Bruins shot 57.6% from the field while committing just 10 turnovers. They also held Gonzaga to seven 3-point shots. Teams hitting those metrics are 98-1 this season.
On the other side, Baylor’s accomplishments also can’t be ignored. However, unlike Gonzaga, Baylor faltered at times this year. They struggled particularly against certain teams with solid rebounding and ball control. Its two losses occurred against Kansas and Oklahoma State, both of which ranked inside the top 100, and Baylor allowed the most (43) and fourth-most (35) rebounds to these two teams. Combined with poor shooting performances, Baylor couldn’t overcome either opponent.
Gonzaga has a clear size advantage. Baylor starts four player standing 6-foot-5 or shorter, while Gonzaga’s entire starting five is at least 6-foot-4, Drew Timme is 6-foot-10 and Corey Kispert 6-foot-7. Unsurprisingly, Gonzaga averages 37.6 rebounds per game (67th) to Baylor’s 35.9 (137th).
Even in Baylor’s early tournament games, this rebounding weakness already appeared. Wisconsin, Villanova and Arkansas all out-rebounded Baylor in their respective tournament games. However, each team lost the turnover battle, subsequently tilting the final scores in Baylor’s favor. However, Baylor looks unlikely to see the same success with its sixth-ranked turnover defense against Gonzaga. Gonzaga ranks 260th in offensive turnovers.
Baylor does possess paths to victory, though. They shoot 41.2% from 3-point range, which is No. 1 in the country. However, Gonzaga also shoots 37% from 3-point territory (45th) and averages an absurd 76.2 possessions per game. Outside of shooting lights out, Baylor could also benefit from potential Gonzaga foul trouble. The Bulldogs run one of the tightest rotations in college basketball, but they also average just 16.7 fouls per game, which is the ninth fewest in the country.
This is a tough stylistic matchup for Baylor, and numerous advantages point Gonzaga’s way. As just 4.5-point favorites, the Bulldogs are the sharp bet on the board.
Best Bet— Gonzaga -4.5
Player Prop — Corey Kispert Over 16.5 Points
Kispert has taken 40 shots in Gonzaga’s last three games. He has a 21.5% shot rate in Gonzaga’s last three games. Already shooting 44.5% from beyond the arc, Kispert’s points prop stands out among Gonzaga players.
National Championship CBB DFS Picks
Jared Butler ($13,800) — Baylor’s scoring leader, Butler deserves strong consideration as the most expensive Bear. He finally overcame his poor shooting in the NCAA Tournament to finish 6 of 9 against Houston. Butler notched 17 points while providing solid peripheral numbers. On the year Butler leads the team with a 20.6% usage rate. In Baylor’s last three he had a 19.3% shot rate, 12.4% rebound rate and 24.5% assist rate. While the Gonzaga studs have more intrigue, Butler still deserves consideration as a contrarian option for Baylor.
Jalen Suggs ($13,500) — While Timme ($15,000) certainly deserves consideration after scoring at least 22 points in each of Gonzaga’s last three games, his price hinders the remaining lineup pieces. Meanwhile, Suggs brings a more attractive price and upside in numerous statistical categories. In just Gonzaga’s last three games Suggs contributed a 16% shot rate, 21.1% rebound rate and 28.6% assist rate for the Bulldogs. He has also played at least 34 minutes in three straight games, giving him a solid floor for low-risk contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Corey Kispert ($12,600) — For those looking at buy-low options in the Gonzaga offense, Kispert fits the bill. Kispert is 44.5% from 3-point range on the season but has put up three straight duds in the NCAA Tournament. In that span he is 17-for-40 from the field, pointing to major positive regression moving forward. On the year Kispert has an 18.3% usage rate, but that has actually remained fairly consistent during his slump. In Gonzaga’s last three he still accounts for a 21.5% shot rate, 21.1% rebound rate and 11.4% assist rate. The cheapest of the three studs on Gonzaga, Kispert offers salary relief and contrarian appeal.
MaCio Teague ($9,900) — Similar to Kispert, Teague is the cheapest stud on Baylor. He was actually priced ahead of Davion Mitchell ($12,300) for the Final Four, but their prices flipped ahead of the National Championship. Prior to Baylor’s beatdown of Houston, Teague played 37 and 35 minutes for Baylor. In their last three he accounted for a 18.8% shot rate, 13.6% rebound rate and 16.3% assist rate. Teague’s 17.6% usage rate also narrowly bests Mitchell’s 17.2% usage rate, making him a solid price-adjusted play here.
Matthew Mayer ($6,900) — For those looking at pure punt options, the Baylor side has more intrigue with a wider distribution of minutes. Mayer typically comes off the bench for Baylor, but he has played 19 and 20 minutes in back-to-back games. While Mayer provides much needed size at 6-foot-9 against Gonzaga, he also shoots 40% from beyond the arc. In his part-time role he only accounted for a 12.5% shot rate and 12.4% rebound rate in Baylor’s last three. However, his rebounding and 3-point percentage give him enough upside to consider as a punt option with upside for tournaments.
Mark Vital ($5,700) — Even cheaper than Mayer, Vital looks like the cheapest option with a consistent role on either Gonzaga or Baylor. Vital starts for Baylor and averages 23.3 minutes per game. However, Vital has only played 15 and 18 minutes in back-to-back games due to foul trouble. Vital doesn’t offer much upside with his 10% usage rate. However, he has a 17.3% rebound rate even with his recent foul trouble. Vital also offers enough salary relief to jam multiple studs at the top of rosters.
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