The tournament is through the first two rounds, and the Sweet 16 is through one day of action. DraftKings and FanDuel continue to provide sizable contests for CBB DFS grinders. Examining the slate for the Sweet 16 on DraftKings and FanDuel, a number of core plays stand out. This piece will identify top plays from each college basketball matchup and determining the top CBB DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
For a more in-depth look at all the data, check out Matt Gajewski’s expert projections that will help take your CBB DFS lineups to the top of the DraftKings and FanDuel leaderboards.
CBB DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel | March Madness
Stud Tier
Evan Mobley ($8,500) — The premier stud on the Sunday DFS slate, Mobley only brings an $8,500 price tag on DraftKings here. He is typically priced north of $9,000, so this could be the right time to buy low on Mobley. USC is a 2-point favorite over Oregon in a game with a 138.5-point total. Mobley paces the entire slate in overall DFS projection while providing a 22% shot rate, 32.4% rebound rate and 20% assist rate in USC’s last three games. As for matchup, Oregon’s tallest starter stands 6-foot-6. Even in a losing effort last week, Luka Garza scored 36 points and secured nine boards in this mismatch. Also playing every minute in competitive games, Mobley should absolutely eat in this matchup here. While the slate provides multiple studs in better game environments, Mobley’s usage/matchup combination still deserves consideration here.
Drew Timme ($8,200) — The top game environment for DFS, Gonzaga is a 13.5-point favorite over Creighton in a game totaled at 158 points. This gives Gonzaga an immense 85.75-point implied team total to combine with a narrow distribution of minutes. Gonzaga plays with three usage studs in Jalen Suggs ($8,000), Corey Kispert ($7,500) and Timme. All three are playable on any given slate, but Timme presents the top matchup in this spot. Timme stands 6-foot-10 and figures to give a Creighton starting five — which tops out at 6-foot-7 — issues. Timme also leads the team with a 19.9% usage rate while eclipsing 30 minutes in Gonzaga’s last two competitive games (excluding its Round 1 matchup against Norfolk State). Timme offers stability across statistical categories, providing a 15.4% shot rate, 25% rebound rate and 22.6% assist rate in Gonzaga’s last three games. Playing one of these studs should be a focal point in making your CBB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Herb Jones ($7,700) — Playing in a clash of styles, the up-tempo Crimson Tide face off against a slow-paced UCLA team. Alabama is 6.5-point favorites over UCLA in a game with a 145.5-point total, giving this contest DFS intrigue. Specifically, Jones is underpriced after getting into foul trouble in Alabama’s most recent game. Prior to his 17-minute outing against Maryland, Jones played 39 and 34 minutes in Alabama’s two previous games. Jones brings a 16.1% usage rate and showed increased involvement down the stretch. Jones adds an 18% shot rate, 18.7% rebound rate and 20% assist rate to Alabama’s offense just in its last three games. UCLA already struggles on defense, ranking 173rd in efficiency. A 6-foot-8 matchup nightmare for the Bruins, Jones is a stud worth targeting on today’s slate.
Marcus Zegarowski ($7,000) — On the other side of the Gonzaga game, Creighton still has a 72.25-point implied team total, which ranks in the top half of this slate. With the perceived difficult matchup on hand, Creighton’s entire starting five has a discounted price. Zegarowski looks particularly intriguing after playing 38 minutes in back-to-back games. After a disappointing end to the Big East Tournament, Zegarowski appears to have found his stride. In Creighton’s last three games, he accounts for a 19.8% shot rate and 33.3% assist rate. Zegarowski also shoots 42% from 3-point territory, which exploits Gonzaga’s biggest defensive weakness. While many may opt to avoid Creighton in this spot, Zegarowski offers contrarian appeal among the studs on this slate.
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Mid-Priced Tier
L.J. Figueroa ($6,900) — On the other side of the USC game, Oregon has the lowest implied team total on the slate, at 68.25 points. However, the Ducks play a tight distribution of minutes, keeping all five starters squarely in play. While Chris Duarte ($7,300) provides the most consistency, buying low on Figueroa could make some sense in this spot. Figueroa has played at least 30 minutes in three straight games and contributes a 15.8% usage rate. Despite a falling price, he still contributes a 23.4% shot rate and 16.3% rebound rate in Oregon’s last three games. Figueroa also shoots 39% from 3-point land, which takes advantage of a USC defense that ranks 160th in stopping 3-point shots. Still, this is a tough decision between Figueroa and Will Richardson ($6,800), who also contributes a 13.6% shot rate, 23.3% rebound rate and 39.3% assist rate in Oregon’s last three. While both are playable, Figueroa looks like the superior CBB DFS pick as a buy-low on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Raiquan Gray ($6,200) — Typically a tough consideration in DFS, Florida State’s 10-man rotation looks slightly more intriguing on a four-game slate. Despite its willingness to play a deep bench, some minutes have solidified on this team. M.J. Walker ($4,900), Scottie Barnes ($5,500), and Gray look like the top price-adjusted plays here. While Barnes has the top usage rate of these three, he also plays the least consistent minutes. Meanwhile, Gray has a 15.9% usage rate and has played 28 and 31 minutes in back-to-back games for Florida State. He also accounts for a 17.4% shot rate and 15.1% rebound rate in Florida State’s last three, giving him upside in multiple scoring categories. Despite the top projection on the team, Gray still carries risk with his minutes. With that said, Gray, Walker and Barnes all present GPP upside on today’s DFS slate.
John Petty ($6,000) — For those looking at cheaper options on Alabama, Petty continues to slide in pricing despite scoring 10 and 20 points in Alabama’s last two games. As consistent as they come, Petty has played at least 31 minutes in three straight games for Alabama. While Petty doesn’t provide the same upside as Jones from a usage perspective, he is involved across statistical categories. On the year he brings a 15.4% shot rate, 12.3% rebound rate and 13.2% assist rate, giving him an excellent floor for DFS. With Alabama holding the second-highest implied team total on the board, Petty stands out as a preferred mid-priced option today on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Value Tier
Andrew Nembhard ($5,100) — For those looking at cheaper attachments to Gonzaga, Nembhard has played 38 and 40 minutes in Gonzaga’s last two competitive games. Fortunately for DFS, Gonzaga utilizes a condensed rotation. Nembhard has a 14.6% usage rate this season, but most of his involvement occurs in the periphery. Nembhard accounts for just 10.9% of Gonzaga’s shots and 17% of the team’s assists in its last three games. However, these rates still lead to a usable DFS projection when adjusted for Nembhard’s elite minutes and Gonzaga’s immense team total in this spot against Creighton. With such a solid team total, stacking Nembhard with one or two Gonzaga studs could also make sense in this spot.
Tyger Campbell ($4,800) — On the other side of the Alabama game, UCLA has a mere 69.5-point implied team total. However, many of UCLA’s studs saw their prices drop after dismantling Abilene Christian in the Round of 32. Specifically, Campbell finds himself priced at $4,800. UCLA’s primary ball handler, Campbell accounts for 40.3% of UCLA’s assists this season. Campbell played 30 and 34 minutes prior to their blowout victory and should return to those figures in a competitive spot against Alabama. The Crimson Tide rank 17th in defensive efficiency and also pace up opponents with their 76.5 possessions per game. For those reasons, Campbell deserves consideration as a value play in DFS.
Denzel Mahoney ($4,700) — Mentioned above, Creighton’s entire starting five is underpriced. Specifically, Mahoney brings an egregiously low price tag despite playing 34 minutes in Creighton’s most recent game. On the year he has the second-highest usage rate on the team at 17.3%. Mahoney has seen his involvement dip slightly in recent games, but he still presents an 18.1% shot rate, 12.1% rebound rate and 14.3% assist rate in Creighton’s last three games. Another team playing a tight rotation, Mahoney provides elite value even as a 13.5-point underdog in this spot.
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