The following picks come from Awesemo.com’s Director of Content, . Josh posts his projections daily for subscribers and is the co-host of the NBA Strategy show Monday through Friday morning.
This slate is already in disarray with the news of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague being out in Minnesota, and with Anthony Davis’ status as a game time decision. Being on Towns was super helpful Monday night, and I’ll be going right back to him again today. I’m Team KAT, regardless. There are better plays out there tonight. Specifically…
My picks are usually coming from a FanDuel focus, but this one works either way. Draymond is simply too cheap for this spot. In a way, it would be better for Green if Anthony Davis played, but I’m looking at him either way. Draymond has been a .54 fantasy point per possession player, which makes him an exceptional value at his current price point. I anticipate him being on the floor for ~75 possessions, so getting to his salary value is a coin-flip proposition. Any time I can get to that level, I’ll end up with a ton of a player and this is no different. On my most recent crunch, Green showed up in 65% of my lineups. That’s also my ownership cap. I’m hoping his ownership stays relatively low. That will allow me to be 3X the field and still get in other PF options.
Clearly, Tyus Jones will be popular. I assume Josh Okogie will be just as popular, but I’d rather go to Jones. On FanDuel, Jones is a no-brainer. He’s a guy I’ll have in more than 50% of my lineups. Worst case scenario: he’s the guy I drop. He’s a straight minimum salary play, which means I have the max amount of salary to spend on the other 8 spots. I can do a lot of damage with that savings, and this is assuming I drop the score. I’m currently projecting Jones at 25.6 FP in 31 minutes. He could realistically score in the mid-30s, which is lethal from a minimum salary punt. The Wolves will be popular, but Jones is my favorite of the bunch from a value perspective.
It’s possible that the Minnesota news will help bring down the ownership of Dennis Smith. He was looking like an excellent value in the mid-tier, but now, with the amount of value in the bargain bin, Smith could potentially be overlooked. For me, value is value. I’ll fit it in wherever I can find it. $6500 on FanDuel and $5900 on DraftKings is a simply too low for a guy with that puts up .49 fantasy points per possession. Similar to Draymond, DSJ projects at his value number. My goal each night is extract as much value as possible from a particular player. Smith (and Draymond) make that easier because their potential for exceeding their baseline projection is significantly higher than the average player due to depressed pricing. Sometimes, you have to look past the player himself and remember that this is an optimization problem. Price is half of the equation, and right now, Smith’s is too low.
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