DraftKings & FanDuel NHL DFS: It’s a small five-game slate as much of the league is on their bye week heading into the All-Star break, but there are still loads of stars from which to choose our NHL DFS picks like Brad Marchand, Mark Scheifele and Patrick Kane on the docket. Let’s dive in.
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NHL DFS Picks: Center
Mark Scheifele (WPG at CAR): DraftKings – $5,700; FanDuel – $7,400
Winnipeg has shuffled their lines a bit and that has pushed Blake Wheeler to the top line with Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor, pushing Scheifele down to the second line with Nikolaj Ehlers. It would seem to make sense to play Wheeler given his line mates, right? It’s not that simple.
Going into Carolina, the Winnipeg top line of Wheeler-Laine-Connor can expect to face the Jordan Staal line in this matchup. That leaves Scheifele’s line to face Sebastian Aho’s line, and that trio is historically not good defensively, clocking in at 2.54 expected goals against per 60 minutes going back three years. Now, that’s a small sample, but the top-line duo of Aho-Teravainen have thousands of minutes together, and they’re below average defensively. In other words, for players going into Carolina, this is the matchup to target.
On top of all this, Carolina is one of the most penalized teams in the NHL, ranking just behind the Rangers for power play opportunities given per game. The penalty kill is good by both process and results, but giving Winnipeg’s elite players too many opportunities could backfire. Expect less ownership on Scheifele than Wheeler, despite getting the same power play exposure and being in a much better in-game matchup (and check out the price difference on DraftKings compared to FanDuel).
Evgeni Malkin (PIT at PHI): DraftKings – $7,100; FanDuel – $8,200
The return of Sidney Crosby was expected to cut into Malkin’s ice time, but he’s averaged 19:38 over these last four games with Crosby in the lineup against 20:12 without him. Yeah, it’s an ice time decrease, but 34 seconds per game for an elite player isn’t really much. We’re talking maybe a couple points over the course of an entire season, assuming constant point rates.
The big reason for choosing Malkin tonight is that he should avoid the Sean Couturier matchup from the Flyers for the majority of the game. When Couturier and line mate Jakub Voracek are off the ice, Philadelphia’s expected goals against rises by 13.6 percent. They go from a well-above average team defensively to below average. It’s stark, and it’s why Malkin is a target for this slate.
Even without Jake Guentzel, the duo of Malkin and Bryan Rust has been great this year, generating 2.7 expected goals and 2.75 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Given that he’ll avoid the tough matchups coming from the Flyers, Malkin is a better option tonight than Crosby, whether as a one-off in tournaments/cash games or as part of a stack.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Brandon Saad (CHI vs. FLA): DraftKings – $4,400; FanDuel – $4,600
It’s been another solid year for Saad, who has endured some injuries but is on an 82-game pace for 28 goals. While he won’t get power play minutes, and that certainly caps his seasonal upside, he can still have excellent individual games, having hit the shot bonus mark on DraftKings in over 10 percent of his contests this year alone.
One big reason for wanting to use Saad is that he’s skating with Patrick Kane as his right winger, something that has happened with regularity since Saad’s return to Chicago in 2017. Their numbers together are stellar as well, as the team has generated over 2.5 expected goals per 60 minutes with Saad and Kane on the ice over these last three seasons, a mark that is over a standard deviation above average.
Whether Saad and company match up against the first line or the second line, neither has been stellar defensively for the Panthers. He has a reasonable price across the industry for his lineup slotting, even without the power play minutes.
Nino Niederreiter (CAR vs. WPG): DraftKings – $4,000; FanDuel – $4,500
The long and short of it is this: the Winnipeg top line is arguably the worst defensive line in hockey while Niederreiter’s line is one of the best at generating shots. At the least, when Staal and Andrei Svechnikov are on the ice (Niederreiter’s line mates), Carolina has generated over 67 shot attempts and over three expected goals per 60 minutes, both huge offensive numbers. That’s in comparison to a Winnipeg top line allowing over three expected goals per 60 minutes. This is a gigantic mismatch in Carolina’s favor.
It’s not to say Winnipeg can’t score or generate offense in this matchup – they’re talented enough to do that against anybody. It’s to say that when discussing the flow of play, Niederreiter’s line should be spending a lot of time in the Winnipeg zone tonight, and that makes Niederreiter appealing for this slate as a one-off in any format.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Riley Stillman (FLA at CHI): DraftKings – $2,900; FanDuel – $3,600
Florida is basically running five defensemen with relatively even ice time levels right now, as they have had Aaron Ekblad, Anton Stralman, Mike Matheson, Keith Yandle and Stillman all playing between 18:30 and 21:30 per game since Christmas. That balance is good for Stillman, who has been stuck on the third pair at times this year. As a result of this change, Stillman has seen his ice time climb every game over his last five games, topping out at 21:54 on Saturday night.
Stillman is a big threat for the three-block bonus on DraftKings as he’s averaging two blocks per game on the year and that’s while just averaging 19 minutes a night. If he can get the 20-21 he’s played recently, that’s just an even bigger opportunity to reach that bonus.
The matchup is obviously a good one, as Chicago is bottom five in the NHL by various defensive metrics not limited to just shots allowed. Stillman isn’t necessarily an offensive force, but this is a good offensive team, and he doesn’t mind throwing his body in front of pucks. At his price across the industry, he doesn’t need to do much more than that.
Jaccob Slavin (CAR vs. WPG): DraftKings – $4,300; FanDuel – $4,100
The loss of Dougie Hamilton is a big one for Carolina, but they have a young-ish defenseman waiting in the wings in Slavin. He may be a bit less familiar for casual DFS players as he’s infrequently been on one of the two power play units, but he’s very good. Slavin possesses excellent zone entry/exit numbers, which indicate to us a player who can not only move the puck, but do it well and do it consistently. That transition play is important for the team, and important for a guy who is now running the team’s top power play unit.
In Carolina’s first game without Hamilton, Slavin played 26:39, the highest for him on the season by a full 45 seconds. He’s going to get a lot of ice time without the team’s All Star in the lineup and that includes some prime power play time as well. He should be a lock for cash games tonight, though he could see a lot of ownership in tournaments given his price, lineup slotting, and matchup.
NHL DFS Picks: Stacks
Florida second power play stack of Trocheck-Connolly-Ekblad
Feel free to add Frank Vatrano, whether as part of the stack or substituting for Connolly.
This is a short slate with a few obvious spots, which means if we use players from the obvious spots – such as Florida – we need to get a bit creative. Obviously, the second power play unit gets a lot less ice time than the top unit, as it’s about a 75/25 split, but Chicago’s penalty kill is mid-pack and that’s something to exploit. More than anything, Chicago has brutal expected goals against numbers all through their lineup, making Florida’s second line an appealing, lower-owned target than the top line.
Carolina second line of Svechnikov-Staal-Niederreiter
As explained in the section on Niederreiter, they probably have the best line matchup in the NHL right now, and certainly the best matchup of any regular top line. Whether it’s Scheifele or Wheeler as the top-line center, both have had negligible defensive impacts over the previous three seasons, indicating it doesn’t really matter who the top-line center is, defensively speaking. What’s tough here is the two wingers are on two different power play units while Staal is on neither. It’s just too good of a five-on-five matchup to ignore them altogether, however.
