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The Celtics Need Max-Contract Al Horford To Survive Game 4 In The NBA Switch And Hedge For 5/21

Chris Spags



A first look at the NBA DFS slate, starting lineups & injury report today | Free expert DraftKings & FanDuel optimizer picks tonight 10/25/21

The Cavaliers have a chance to even their series with Boston in a Game 4 matchup at Cleveland, one that Vegas currently expects should break LeBron and company’s way. The Cavs rolled past the Celtics with a 30 point victory in Game 3 which was already out of hand by the start of the fourth quarter. Can the Celtics go up 3-1 or will Cleveland tie things up with the series shifting back to New England? Let’s find out.

Awesemo’s rankings for the slate are already up while his ownership projections will be posted closer to lock for premium members and both are integral for creating lineups. Read the Switch and Hedge, check them out, be better at daily fantasy basketball. And now onto the game:

Boston Celtics (99.5 implied points, -5.3 on their last 10 games) at Cleveland Cavaliers (106.5 implied points, +0.1 on their last 10 games

Al Horford had an incredibly quiet Game 3, putting up just four shots and a 9.3% usage rate that was his lowest since November 20th of last year. I don’t think Horford has an insanely high ceiling but him bouncing back and being a part of a GPP winning lineup would not surprise me. Jaylen Brown also had a quiet Game 3 despite a comparable usage rate to his previous solid performances and it’s definitely possible he bounces back tonight. I don’t see it again with Jayson Tatum but his pricing is getting closer to logical and he has a comparable shot at hitting value to most of the Celtics stars. Terry Rozier’s price is similarly appealing and he’s been close to hitting value lately. If a shot or two more fall for him, let alone him getting hot, Rozier could be a differentiator on a single-game slate. Marcus Smart’s price is tough to swallow while Marcus Morris’s is slightly more appealing, a C value on Awesemo’s rankings. Aron Baynes has been a decent value at his price, which has gotten more affordable despite mostly solid performances this series. Greg Monroe only has value in a blowout with all of his stats coming in the fourth quarter last time with the game out of hand. Lastly, Semi Ojeleye will get a minor amount of minutes if there isn’t a blowout to give him a chance at being low-owned, low-scoring value if he makes a particular lineup build that you like work.

LeBron’s price is actually at a hilarious point on DraftKings, topping out at $19,700, almost 40% of your potential salary cap space. And yet it’s hard to imagine him not being worth it at home given the scarcity of projected players to hit 3x value. At that price there are definitely different, more value-minded ways to approach a lineup build but it’s hard to imagine fading LeBron as he plays to avoid going down 3-1 at the Quicken Loans Arena. George Hill was the surprise value on this side in Game 3 as the Cavs finally turned more to the LeBron/Hill pick and roll that’s been effective in limited roll outs. Hill did will despite 4-for-11 shooting and I have no problem going back his way tonight other than ownership concerns and a mild fear that the Celtics will do more to stop him to shift the onus of performance onto some of the other Cavs. Kevin Love looks like a solid play to me again with a decent shot at hitting 3x value with the potential to get closer to 4x. JR Smith and Kyle Korver are interchangeable to me with Smith’s price making him a bit more appealing while I’m not terribly interested in Jeff Green unless the salary fits a lineup construction I love. Tristan Thompson looks fine as a mid-priced play but I’d be a bit concerned with Larry Nance given his price jump and how his stats were inflated by blowout run. Jordan Clarkson is a potential flyer given how he worked his way back into the rotation at the expense of Rodney Hood but I’d only play him at the smallest amount of ownership given his low upside without a blowout.

And now we’re ready for Game 4. Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags, subscribe to the Awesemo YouTube for when I go live with Josh Engleman at 6PM Eastern to talk about this slate and MLB and I’ll see you guys soon for more basketball breakdowns.

Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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