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Best Ball

Underdog Fantasy 2020 Closing ADP: ADP vs. Advance Rates for Best Ball Mania

James Brimacombe

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The optimal Week 3 NFL DFS value picks for DraftKings & FanDuel lineups using Awesemo's expert projections & rankings | Saquon Barkley

The biggest NFL fantasy football Best Ball Tournament in history is happening over at Underdog Fantasy this year with a $1,000,001 top prize and $3.5 million total in prize money. It is the Best Ball Mania II, which is a follow-up to last year’s tournament on Underdog. I was fortunate enough to get my hands on the 2020 (as of Sept. 9, 2020) Underdog ADP, so I wanted to do a deep dive and combine the data with Hayden Winks data on Advance Rates for each player. The below chart can be found here in a google doc form.

The BBMII is a massive 155,520 total entry tournament that has a $25 entry and that has a tournament schedule.

  • Qualifiers = Week 1-14 *Top 2 out of 12 advance*
  • Quarterfinals = Week 15 *Top 2 out of 18 advance*
  • Semifinals = Week 16 *Top 1 out of 18 advance*
  • Championship = Week 17 *Finals with 160 Total Finalists*

With this tournament structure players have to be near perfect each round to advance. I want to focus today on Round 1 (Qualifiers) which is Week 1 through Week 14. The goal here is to finish in the top two spots to move on to the playoff rounds. You can look at the data yourself to see the closing ADP and compare it to that players Advance rate to see the value and trends. The average advance rate was 21.3% for 2020 players on this chart, so anything higher than that is what we want to focus on for trends.

Underdog Round-By-Round Best Ball ADP

Round 1

  • Huge advance rates for Dalvin Cook (52%), Davante Adams (41%), Alvin Kamara (40%) and Derrick Henry (36%)
  • Barkley (2%), Thomas (4%) and McCaffrey (5%) put players in a major hole to start drafts.
  • 1.01 and 1.02 are the prime picks for 2021 but not the case looking back on 2020.
  • Running back-heavy first round with the safer volume running back types as the targets.
  • RD1 Analysis: Players have to nail your pick in this round. Last year 1.07 Cook, 1.12 Adams, 1.04 Kamara and 1.05 Henry were the big winners. Any draft spot can work.

Round 2

  • Tyreek Hill (41%), Travis Kelce (38%) and Aaron Jones (36%) were huge wins in this round.
  • Lamar Jackson at 7% stands out here, as reaching for the QB1 is never a good idea.
  • Kelce with a 38% advance rate was a smash play at tight end but will cost a first-round pick in 2021.
  • RD2 Analysis: Darren Waller could be in play this year in Round 2 as a smash pick. Great round for both running back and wide receiver but an avoid for quarterback.

Round 3

  • The numbers are pretty even here but looks to be a receiver-friendly round, with Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson and Mike Evans all having great rates.
  • RD3 Analysis: Target receivers in this round, but do not be afraid to draft a running back if the right option is there. If Waller slips he should be a target, and maybe consider Kittle in this range as well.

Round 4

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  • This was the round of the wide receiver again. Last year A.J. Brown, Tyler Lockett, Calvin Ridley, Robert Woods, Terry McLaurin and Cooper Kupp were all in this area, and all had great advance rates.
  • Running backs were iffy in this range with the likes of David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Le’Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette here in 2020.
  • RD4 Analysis: Target the wide receiver position in Round 4. It will be hard to do with running backs slipping down the board, but the data says it is the right call.

Round 5

  • Metcalf was a fifth-rounder last year and ended with a 30% advance rate.
  • This round in general looks to be good for either running back or wide receiver but with a slight lean to the wide receiver position.
  • RD5 Analysis: Round 5 seems to be a tougher round, with players only averaging 20% advance rate. This is the place to look for values from Round 4 falling or to reach for a player that might have a higher ADP

Round 6

  • Round 6 brought Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, David Montgomery and Kyler Murray last year. This is the round to find the breakout player.
  • This is the place to take one of the top five quarterbacks if any of them are left.
  • RD6 Analysis: Look for the breakout player or target a star quarterback.

Round 7

  • Remember Round 7 Darren Waller? It will be hard to find this year version.
  • Both Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson were great picks here last year, with both having over 30% advance rate.
  • Antonio Gibson was a steal in this round as well.
  • RD7 Analysis: Target quarterback if a top-seven option is still available. Look for young breakout player like Gibson, Waller or Diontae Johnson from 2020.

Round 8

  • Josh Allen (37%) and CeeDee Lamb (23%) were the gems of this round.
  • Good round to take a stab on breakout wide receiver with Lamb, Mecole Hardman, Henry Ruggs, Deebo Samuel and Jalen Reagor.
  • Running back was so bad in this range, with Tevin Coleman, Jordan Howard, and Marlon Mack as the three options.
  • RD8 Analysis: Breakout quarterback could come in this range. This looks to be a solid round to target wide receiver.

Round 9

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  • This might have been the worst round of ADP all last season.
  • RD9 Analysis: Nothing is standing out here other then it was a bad round of ADP and not a single player in this range did much. May be a good round to reach on player at higher ADP.

Round 10

  • Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees and Tom Brady were all drafted in this round, so may be a place to target QB1 or QB2.
  • Tough round to nail, but guys like Tony Pollard, Brandon Aiyuk and Jeudy could be had.
  • RD10 Analysis: Look for quarterback or for young breakout/rookie wide receiver.

Round 11

  • This ADP round is pretty flat with 16% to 27% advance rates across the round.
  • Four tight ends went in this round, and all had over 21% advance rate.
  • Boston Scott and Duke Johnson were the only two running backs. The position dried up quick at the end of drafts.
  • RD11 Analysis: Looks like the best round to target the tight end position for those who missed out on the top guys.

Round 12

  • Aaron Rodgers crushed at 36% advance rate here. Solid round to look for QB2.
  • RD12 Analysis: Rodgers was really the only big winner in this round. Waiting at quarterback made this is the perfect round to start drafting them.

Round 13

  • Justin Jefferson with a 42% rate, Robby Anderson with a 28% rate. Incredible values in Round 13.
  • RD13 Analysis: Look for that home run wide receiver.

Round 14

  • Ryan Tannehill with a 33% advance rate in the 14th round is incredible. The other quarterbacks in this round were Jimmy Garoppolo, Gardner Minshew and Teddy Bridgewater.
  • RD14 Analysis: It is a round to gamble on quarterback. There might be three or four similar names, but probably only one will hit and the others will be very bad.

Round 15

  • Kirk Cousins and Nyheim Hines are the only names that are worth anything in this range.
  • RD15 Analysis: The later it is in these drafts the less value there is at running back and wide receiver, as people will take lots of chances on players that will not even score weekly. Best to target handcuff running back here or look for QB2 or 3.

Round 16

  • Corey Davis was a name that people wanted to give up because of so much failure in seasons beforehand. Well, Davis hit at 37% rate and was the best play in Round 16 by a mile.
  • RD16 Analysis: There might be one or two shots at landing a solid contributor in this round. Do not be afraid to take players that failed the year before. This round also had both Derek Carr and Philip Rivers as options, so getting a starting quarterback this late is not the worst option, as the other skill positions are mostly not going to provide weekly points.

Round 17

  • The only name that stands out here is Russell Gage and he had a 23% advance rate.
  • RD17 Analysis: Take some stabs at rookie wide receivers in this round. Tee Higgins and Chase Claypool went undrafted at times last year and ended up as 18th-round picks, so why not mix and match some rookie wide receivers in Rounds 17 18 picks?

Round 18

  • Claypool, Higgins and Cole Beasley were all in this round and all had over 30% advance rates.
  • RD18 Analysis: Stick to wide receivers here, as these are the lottery ticket guys that are going to help in a tournament-style best ball league.

Undrafted

  • Robert Tonyan (39%), Justin Herbert (31%), J.D. McKissic (26%), Jamaal Williams (28%) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (31%) all stand out here, but also they all did not have a role heading into the season.
  • Undrafted Analysis: Gamble in Rounds 16 and 18 to take down a tournament
Rank PLAYER 9/8/20 ADP Rank Advance Rate
1 Christian McCaffrey 1 RB 1 5%
ROUND 1
2 Saquon Barkley 2.2 RB 2 2%
3 Ezekiel Elliott 3 RB 3 10%
4 Alvin Kamara 4.7 RB 4 40%
5 Derrick Henry 5.9 RB 5 36%
6 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5.9 RB 6 16%
7 Dalvin Cook 6.3 RB 7 52%
8 Michael Thomas 8.3 WR 1 4%
9 Miles Sanders 9.8 RB 8 12%
10 Joe Mixon 10.3 RB 9 13%
11 Josh Jacobs 11.2 RB 10 24%
12 Davante Adams 12.7 WR 2 41%
13 Kenyan Drake 13.1 RB 11 20%
ROUND 2
14 Nick Chubb 14.8 RB 12 22%
15 Tyreek Hill 15.6 WR 3 41%
16 Austin Ekeler 16.1 RB 13 15%
17 Julio Jones 16.5 WR 4 18%
18 Travis Kelce 17.4 TE 1 38%
19 Aaron Jones 18 RB 14 36%
20 George Kittle 20.1 TE 2 16%
21 Chris Godwin 22.9 WR 5 11%
22 DeAndre Hopkins 23.1 WR 6 20%
23 James Conner 23.7 RB 15 19%
24 Lamar Jackson 24.5 QB 1 7%
25 Kenny Golladay 25.8 WR 7 7%
ROUND 3
26 Patrick Mahomes 27.3 QB 2 22%
27 Chris Carson 27.8 RB 16 22%
28 Jonathan Taylor 28.3 RB 17 19%
29 D.J. Moore 29.1 WR 8 20%
30 Amari Cooper 29.3 WR 9 18%
31 Mike Evans 31.3 WR 10 24%
32 JuJu Smith-Schuster 32.8 WR 11 20%
33 Allen Robinson 33.4 WR 12 25%
34 Odell Beckham 35.2 WR 13 15%
35 Adam Thielen 35.4 WR 14 35%
36 Todd Gurley 36.4 RB 18 27%
37 Calvin Ridley 37.6 WR 15 28%
ROUND 4
38 A.J. Brown 39.4 WR 16 30%
39 David Johnson 41 RB 19 19%
40 Robert Woods 41.5 WR 17 26%
41 Melvin Gordon 41.6 RB 20 22%
42 Mark Andrews 42.7 TE 3 15%
43 Terry McLaurin 43.6 WR 18 22%
44 Cooper Kupp 44.8 WR 19 20%
45 D.J. Chark 45.7 WR 20 12%
46 Tyler Lockett 45.7 WR 21 30%
47 Le’Veon Bell 45.9 RB 21 13%
48 Leonard Fournette 46.9 RB 22 15%
49 DK Metcalf 48.7 WR 22 30%
ROUND 5
50 Cam Akers 52.4 RB 23 16%
51 Marquise Brown 53 WR 23 13%
52 Zach Ertz 53.1 TE 4 10%
53 Courtland Sutton 53.7 WR 24 11%
54 D’Andre Swift 54.2 RB 24 24%
55 Mark Ingram 54.3 RB 25 15%
56 Will Fuller 56.1 WR 25 33%
57 Kareem Hunt 56.3 RB 26 28%
58 Michael Gallup 60.2 WR 26 16%
59 DeVante Parker 60.4 WR 27 22%
60 Raheem Mostert 60.4 RB 27 20%
61 T.Y. Hilton 61.1 WR 28 17%
ROUND 6
62 Keenan Allen 61.5 WR 29 34%
63 Dak Prescott 63.5 QB 3 12%
64 David Montgomery 64.1 RB 28 28%
65 Stefon Diggs 64.6 WR 30 36%
66 J.K. Dobbins 65 RB 29 19%
67 Ronald Jones 67.6 RB 30 30%
68 Tyler Boyd 69.5 WR 31 22%
69 Devin Singletary 70 RB 31 19%
70 Jarvis Landry 71 WR 32 15%
71 A.J. Green 71.6 WR 33 13%
72 Kyler Murray 72.1 QB 4 27%
73 Darren Waller 72.8 TE 5 29%
ROUND 7
74 Marvin Jones 74.2 WR 34 16%
75 Brandin Cooks 75.2 WR 35 22%
76 Russell Wilson 75.6 QB 5 34%
77 Antonio Gibson 76.6 RB 32 33%
78 Deshaun Watson 77.5 QB 6 30%
79 Diontae Johnson 79.7 WR 36 26%
80 Julian Edelman 80.6 WR 37 15%
81 Christian Kirk 81.1 WR 38 23%
82 James White 82.1 RB 33 19%
83 Zack Moss 83 RB 34 22%
84 Evan Engram 84.9 TE 6 19%
85 Mecole Hardman 85.2 WR 39 20%
ROUND 8
86 Jamison Crowder 90.2 WR 40 25%
87 Tevin Coleman 90.5 RB 35 16%
88 CeeDee Lamb 91 WR 41 23%
89 Henry Ruggs 91.7 WR 42 18%
90 Jordan Howard 93.3 RB 36 18%
91 Josh Allen 94.5 QB 7 37%
92 DeSean Jackson 95.3 WR 43 13%
93 Matt Ryan 95.8 QB 8 20%
94 Deebo Samuel 95.9 WR 44 18%
95 Jalen Reagor 96.5 WR 45 16%
96 Marlon Mack 96.8 RB 37 15%
97 Hayden Hurst 97.3 TE 7 23%
ROUND 9
98 Phillip Lindsay 99.3 RB 38 20%
99 Darius Slayton 99.6 WR 46 21%
100 Latavius Murray 100.4 RB 39 24%
101 Matt Breida 100.5 RB 40 16%
102 Tarik Cohen 102.4 RB 41 18%
103 Chase Edmonds 104.2 RB 42 25%
104 Tyler Higbee 105 TE 8 22%
105 Kerryon Johnson 105.1 RB 43 19%
106 Sterling Shepard 105.6 WR 47 17%
107 Carson Wentz 106.8 QB 9 15%
108 John Brown 108.1 WR 48 23%
109 Tony Pollard 109.3 RB 44 22%
ROUND 10
110 Matthew Stafford 110.1 QB 10 16%
111 Alexander Mattison 111.2 RB 45 20%
112 Emmanuel Sanders 115.4 WR 49 20%
113 Mike Gesicki 115.8 TE 9 26%
114 Brandon Aiyuk 116.2 WR 50 27%
115 Damien Harris 116.5 RB 46 23%
116 Anthony Miller 118.3 WR 51 18%
117 Jerry Jeudy 118.8 WR 52 23%
118 Rob Gronkowski 119.3 TE 10 27%
119 Drew Brees 119.5 QB 11 15%
120 Tom Brady 119.8 QB 12 26%
121 Curtis Samuel 120.6 WR 53 25%
ROUND 11
122 T.J. Hockenson 120.8 TE 11 27%
123 Jared Cook 122.8 TE 12 21%
124 Preston Williams 123.7 WR 54 19%
125 Boston Scott 124.8 RB 47 21%
126 Cam Newton 126.3 QB 13 17%
127 Hunter Henry 126.4 TE 13 23%
128 Duke Johnson 128.6 RB 48 22%
129 Golden Tate 129 WR 55 16%
130 Noah Fant 130.4 TE 14 22%
131 Sammy Watkins 130.8 WR 56 18%
132 Mike Williams 135 WR 57 24%
133 Allen Lazard 135.1 WR 58 22%
ROUND 12
134 Aaron Rodgers 136.3 QB 14 36%
135 Daniel Jones 137.3 QB 15 15%
136 Jonnu Smith 137.3 TE 15 28%
137 Blake Jarwin 139.5 TE 16 11%
138 Austin Hooper 140.9 TE 17 18%
139 Christopher Herndon 141.1 TE 18 15%
140 Darrell Henderson 142.9 RB 49 29%
141 Ben Roethlisberger 143.1 QB 16 24%
142 Sony Michel 143.5 RB 50 18%
143 Parris Campbell 145.1 WR 59 15%
144 N’Keal Harry 146.6 WR 60 14%
145 Jared Goff 147.3 QB 17 23%
ROUND 13
146 A.J. Dillon 148.9 RB 51 19%
147 Laviska Shenault 149.2 WR 61 19%
148 Jerick McKinnon 149.4 RB 52 24%
149 Dallas Goedert 149.4 TE 19 22%
150 Justin Jefferson 150.4 WR 62 42%
151 Breshad Perriman 151.5 WR 63 21%
152 Robby Anderson 151.5 WR 64 28%
153 Joe Burrow 151.9 QB 18 19%
154 Baker Mayfield 154.2 QB 19 16%
155 Chris Thompson 156.5 RB 53 15%
156 Michael Pittman 156.8 WR 65 20%
157 Ke’Shawn Vaughn 159.7 RB 54 18%
ROUND 14
158 Jimmy Garoppolo 161.8 QB 20 15%
159 Eric Ebron 162.3 TE 20 29%
160 Bryan Edwards 162.5 WR 66 15%
161 Ian Thomas 162.8 TE 21 15%
162 Randall Cobb 163.8 WR 67 24%
163 Gardner Minshew 163.8 QB 21 15%
164 Teddy Bridgewater 165.2 QB 22 20%
165 Adrian Peterson 166.6 RB 55 25%
166 DeAndre Washington 167.2 RB 56 17%
167 Ryan Tannehill 167.4 QB 23 33%
168 Irv Smith 169.2 TE 22 23%
169 James Washington 169.6 WR 68 20%
ROUND 15
170 Joshua Kelley 170 RB 57 23%
171 Nyheim Hines 170.5 RB 58 32%
172 Jack Doyle 171.6 TE 23 18%
173 Bryce Love 172.9 RB 59 16%
174 Justin Jackson 173.9 RB 60 23%
175 Darrel Williams 176.2 RB 61 18%
176 Ryquell Armstead 176.8 RB 62 17%
177 Steven Sims 177.2 WR 69 17%
178 Kirk Cousins 177.8 QB 24 33%
179 Larry Fitzgerald 178.6 WR 70 21%
180 John Ross 179.5 WR 71 16%
181 Drew Lock 180.2 QB 25 16%
ROUND 16
182 Hunter Renfrow 181.5 WR 72 22%
183 O.J. Howard 184.2 TE 24 19%
184 Philip Rivers 184.8 QB 26 18%
185 Kendrick Bourne 186.5 WR 73 19%
186 Darrynton Evans 188 RB 63 20%
187 Dede Westbrook 190.8 WR 74 16%
188 Derek Carr 190.9 QB 27 22%
189 Gerald Everett 191.4 TE 25 20%
190 Benny Snell 191.7 RB 64 23%
191 Corey Davis 194.2 WR 75 37%
192 Carlos Hyde 194.9 RB 65 22%
193 Devine Ozigbo 195 RB 66 17%
ROUND 17
194 Sam Darnold 195.9 QB 28 16%
195 Tre’Quan Smith 196.4 WR 76 20%
196 Josh Reynolds 197.1 WR 77 22%
197 Anthony McFarland 198.9 RB 67 18%
198 Alshon Jeffery 200.5 WR 78 16%
199 Greg Olsen 201.1 TE 26 21%
200 Miles Boykin 201.5 WR 79 17%
201 Russell Gage 201.5 WR 80 23%
202 Dawson Knox 202.8 TE 27 22%
203 Tyrod Taylor 203.4 QB 29 17%
204 Tyler Eifert 204 TE 28 19%
205 Denzel Mims 204.2 WR 81 18%
ROUND 18
206 Brian Hill 204.3 RB 68 22%
207 Mohamed Sanu 204.7 WR 82 16%
208 Jace Sternberger 204.9 TE 29 20%
209 Chase Claypool 206.1 WR 83 40%
210 Tee Higgins 206.5 WR 84 30%
211 Andy Isabella 207 WR 85 21%
212 Dwayne Haskins 207.1 QB 30 15%
213 Malcolm Brown 207.2 RB 69 27%
214 Devonta Freeman 207.5 RB 70 20%
215 Cole Beasley 207.7 WR 86 35%
216 Dan Arnold 208.1 TE 30 20%
217 Antonio Brown 208.9 WR 87 16%
UNDRAFTED
218 Kenny Stills 209.1 WR 88 21%
219 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 210 WR 89 31%
220 Van Jefferson 210 WR 90 17%
221 Will Dissly 210.3 TE 31 18%
222 Giovani Bernard 210.6 RB 71 28%
223 Tua Tagovailoa 210.7 QB 31 16%
224 Auden Tate 210.8 WR 91 18%
225 LeSean McCoy 211.1 RB 72 18%
226 Derrius Guice 211.5 RB 73 12%
227 Logan Thomas 212.1 TE 32 20%
228 Ryan Fitzpatrick 212.2 QB 32 20%
229 Demarcus Robinson 212.6 WR 92 22%
230 Scott Miller 212.7 WR 93 25%
231 Olabisi Johnson 212.9 WR 94 23%
232 Lynn Bowden 213 RB 74 16%
233 Jimmy Graham 213.2 TE 33 23%
234 Jamaal Williams 213.3 RB 75 28%
235 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 213.3 WR 95 16%
236 Danny Amendola 213.6 WR 96 20%
237 Kyle Rudolph 213.6 TE 34 23%
238 Frank Gore 213.7 RB 76 20%
239 Darren Fells 214.1 TE 35 24%
240 Tyrell Williams 214.2 WR 97 16%
241 Ito Smith 214.3 RB 77 20%
242 Cordarrelle Patterson 214.4 WR 98 20%
243 Rashaad Penny 214.4 RB 78 16%
244 Darwin Thompson 214.4 RB 79 21%
245 Greg Ward 214.5 WR 99 22%
246 Josh Gordon 214.5 WR 100 18%
247 Trent Taylor 214.5 WR 101 14%
248 DeeJay Dallas 214.6 RB 80 22%
249 Dare Ogunbowale 214.6 RB 81 17%
250 Rex Burkhead 214.6 RB 82 26%
251 K.J. Hamler 214.6 WR 102 18%
252 Nick Foles 214.8 QB 33 19%
253 Chris Conley 215 WR 103 16%
254 Lamar Miller 215 RB 83 18%
255 David Njoku 215.2 TE 36 16%
256 Devin Asiasi 215.2 TE 37 11%
257 C.J. Uzomah 215.2 TE 38 15%
258 Mitchell Trubisky 215.2 QB 34 15%
259 J.D. McKissic 215.3 RB 84 26%
260 Antonio Gandy-Golden 215.3 WR 104 14%
261 Eno Benjamin 215.3 RB 85 18%
262 Dante Pettis 215.4 WR 105 15%
263 Devin Duvernay 215.5 WR 106 16%
264 Phillip Dorsett 215.6 WR 107 29%
265 Jordan Akins 215.6 TE 40 20%
266 Jaylen Samuels 215.6 RB 87 15%
267 Robert Tonyan 215.6 TE 41 39%
268 Justin Herbert 215.6 QB 35 31%
269 Reggie Bonnafon 215.7 RB 88 15%
270 Adam Humphries 215.7 WR 108 32%
271 Jakeem Grant 215.7 WR 109 18%

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