Welcome to Awesemo’s Fantasy Football Best Ball Report 3.0. This will be a weekly feature leading up to the 2021 NFL season that will focus on all things related to best ball for the past seven days. It will check in on Underdog Fantasy ADPs (using 4for4 ADP Tool) and look at the NFL fantasy football top risers and fallers over the past week. We will sort the top player news stories on NBC Sports Edge, as this is the main source of news that seems to impact the rise or fall of players’ ADPs. This column will also examine any additional trends that might help fantasy players get ahead of the curve when it comes to players’ ADP value.
The more teams you draft the more players you are going to have exposure to, and with that we want to search out when it is OK to buy a player and when to avoid a certain player. Best ball can be compared to being a day trader in the stock market, as the best ball season runs from February to September.
Underdog Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft ADPs & News
This column looks at weekly ADP shifts on Underdog Fantasy to see how player values are moving with the news around the league. Drafting in best ball means always looking for values when drafting players. For high-volume best ball players, the goal is always to limit the number of times one overpays for a player, and the best way to help with this is tracking ADP movements.
Top 20 ADP Risers (July 26 — Aug. 1)
|Rank||Name||Pos||Pos Rank||Team||ADP||Change (7 days)|
The interesting part from this week’s top 20 risers is that 10 of the players are running backs. There has been a slow swing back to running backs having more value than what their ADPs are indicating. With the surge of wide receiver drafting over the last three weeks on Underdog, it has pushed the running back position down too far. Darrell Henderson continues to shoot up the board up 26.6 spots since last week as the Rams continue to show confidence in him moving forward. Deshaun Watson‘s ADP rose 27.2 spots as speculation of him playing this season is on the rise. The biggest riser is Randall Cobb, who was mostly going undrafted in best ball and is now at a 172 ADP, which is up 43.9 spots. The Aaron Rodgers news itself bumped seven Green Bay players into the top 20 ADP risers this week.
Top 20 ADP Fallers (July 26 — Aug. 1)
|Rank||Name||Pos||Pos Rank||Team||ADP||Change (7 days)|
The biggest faller is Michael Thomas after the news broke that he might not be ready to play until Week 6 or later. Carson Wentz also had a big dip, as his foot injury news just hit. He has already dropped 13.9 spots at ADP and likely will be at the top of this list again next week. The other biggest fallers are Denzel Mims, Jameis Winston and Kadarius Toney. All these players have been highly affected by negative news the past week. Mims is playing with the third-string offense, Winston is behind Taysom Hill in the quarterback race, and Toney has been hit with COVID and missed time to open camp. The next few weeks are going to be heavy on the news cycle, so predicting which ADPs fall is going to be solely based on what the buzz is at training camps.
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Weekly News, Notes & Trends (July 26- Aug 1)
Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB — Rodgers is back in Green Bay, as the offseason saga has finally come to an end. Rodgers and all Green Bay offensive players will continue to rise at ADP.
Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU — Watson was present at the start of Texans training camp. All news on Watson will be important leading up to the season, but right now at least he is showing up. He still wants out of Houston, and there is still no clarity on the legal issues and what the NFL will hand down as punishment.
Alfred Morris, RB, NYG — This signing adds fuel to the fire that Saquon Barkley is going to have a longer road to seeing the field to start the 2021 season. The Giants are taking a cautious approach with Barkley, and because of that look for his ADP to continue to dip leading up to the season until there is more positive news.
Carson Wentz, QB, IND — Wentz is dealing with a foot injury that has the start of his season in limbo. The Colts and Wentz are currently taking a wait-and-rest approach to determine if surgery is necessary.
Amari Cooper, WR, DAL — After undergoing offseason ankle surgery, Cooper “looks great,” according to coach Mike McCarthy.
Will Fuller, WR, MIA — Fuller will miss Week 1 already with a suspension but now is close to returning to practice.
Randall Cobb, WR, GB — Everything is back to normal in Green Bay once again, and with Rodgers committing to the team, he gets Cobb back to work in the slot and see a lot of targets.
Qadree Ollison, RB, ATL — Ollison is running as the backup behind Mike Davis in training camp. This is significant news, as Ollison is currently going undrafted in most best ball drafts.
Nico Collins, WR, HOU — Collins has been the Texans’ most impressive rookie so far. This is not the first time Collins has gathered praise this offseason, and now with Cobb off the depth chart, it becomes even more interesting.
D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, RB, DET — Coach Dan Campbell referred to Swift and Williams as a “one-two punch.” With the lack of weapons in the passing game the Lions, are fully committed to over working both Swift and Williams.
Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, QB, DEN — Coach Vic Fangio said there has been “no separation” in the quarterback battle between Lock and Bridgewater.
Denzel Mims, WR, NYJ — Mims continues to be dropping out of favor in New York and is now working with the third-string offense.
Sammy Watkins, WR, BAL — ESPN’s Jamison Hensley reported on Friday that Watkins has been Baltimore’s best wide receiver at training camp. The talent is there with Watkins, so maybe he is undervalued right now in best ball.
Taysom Hill, QB, NO — Hill was working with the first-team offense to begin Saints training camp.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, CLE — Peoples-Jones is getting some positives reviews in camp, and he could be in line for a breakout year, or at least be solidly in play as the teams WR3 behind Oedll Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.
Zach Wilson, QB, NYJ — Wilson finally signed his rookie contract and can now get to work as the Jets’ 2021 starting quarterback.
Adam Humphries, WR, WAS — Humphries has been Ryan Fitzpatrick’s favorite target in the first week of camp. Keep in mind that Curtis Samuel opened camp on the PUP list.
Deonte Harris, WR, NO — Harris was arrested in early July with a DUI. This could not be a worse time for the Harris news with Michael Thomas set to miss a good portion of the season.
Michael Carter, RB, NYJ — Carter started training camp with the first-team offense.
Zach Ertz, TE, PHI — Ertz reported to Eagles training camp. It looks increasingly like he will be starting the season on the Eagles roster.
Chris Hogan, WR, NO — With the Saints desperate for wide receivers, they inked Hogan to a one-year deal.
Devonta Smith, WR, PHI — Smith is week-to-week with a knee sprain. This is not great news for him, but he should be ready to go for Week 1.
Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG — With the team adding Morris this week and signing Devontae Booker this offseason, they are showing their hand in how they want to approach getting Barkley back on the field. Currently the word is that Barkley is “making tangible progress” towards returning to practice.
Best Ball Industry News
- Underdog Fantasy — The Puppy 2 is back! The popular $5 buy-in is twice as big with 111,780 total spots and a $500k prize pool. On a bigger scale, Underdog’s $25 buy-in for the BBMII ($1 million to first) is 45.% full with 84,400 of 155,500 entered. Fourteen thousand teams were entered in the BBMII over the last week, so if that average holds, this tournament will fill before the season starts. Underdog also released a $250 buy-in that has 20 rounds and has a top prize of $100,000, and this week released a SLOW (eight-hour clock) for this format.
- DraftKings — There are three tournament options this year, with a $20 (150 max, $1 million top prize), $3 (20 max, $50,000 top prize) and $555 (59 max, $250,000 top prize). DraftKings also offers “Sit & Go” leagues that are three-, six- and 12-man options from $1 to $1,060. A side note on the Sit & Go leagues is that users can only enter 50 teams in each price point. This is something that is not public knowledge.
- BestBall 10s — They have a $10 entry fee tournament with 3,000 total teams up for grabs and a top prize of $5,000.
- Yahoo! — Yahoo has no best ball tournaments, but they do have $1, $5, $10, $20, $50, $100, $250 and $500 10-man leagues. With the Yahoo best ball product, players are limited to 50 total drafts for the season. These are 10-man leagues and have prizes for top three and also have top weekly score prizes.
- Drafters — Drafters is running a best ball championship tournament, which has a twist to it, as it is the overall top scoring team wins and does not offer a playoff round style like DraftKings and Underdog. The entry fee is just $5.55, and the contest is nearly halfway full (4,550 of 10,008). Top prize is $10,000 with a $50,000 total prize pool. Drafters released an Ownership update on their site that shows “My ADP” vs “Current ADP” which is great to see your average ADP of any given player and compare it to the current value of that player.
- FFPC — Entry fees range from $35 to $1,250. The biggest difference in FFPC is that they have 28 roster spots but include kickers and defenses.
- FanDuel — There are no tournament options currently on FanDuel, but they do have three-man, 10-man and 12-man leagues from $1 to $50.
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