Daily Fantasy Baseball Top Starting Pitchers on DraftKings & FanDuel

MLB’s 2021 regular season has arrived and the return of the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide your slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.

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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 5

Jacob deGrom: NYM at PHI — DraftKings $10,700, FanDuel $11,000

With COVID protocol delaying his first start over the weekend, Jacob deGrom gets the nod for the Mets’ Monday visit to Philadelphia. Last year DeGrom had an outstanding 38.8% strikeout rate, 13.76 K/9, 0.96 WHIP, 2.38 ERA, .188 average against and 2.26 FIP. Though he has a tall task in front of him, deGrom has proven his arsenal of talents.

DeGrom is in line for a lot of ownership, as forecasted by Awesemo’s Ownership Projections, bringing in 61.3% on DraftKings and 40.4% on FanDuel — but not without plenty of reason. As the highest-projected pitcher on both sites at 25.23 DraftKings points and 42.04 FanDuel points by Awesemo’s Premium Point Projections, deGrom mutually brings in the top pitcher projection with a 55.1% of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and 22.1% as top pitcher on FanDuel. In conjunction with such a high point projection comes his steep asking price, which makes deGrom a low-value option at just 3.2% on FanDuel while providing a much higher value on DraftKings at 28.5%.

Against a familiar Phillies foe, deGrom is projected to be facing an even-keeled Phillies batting order consisting of four left-handed hitters and five righties. With a 105 wRC+ and 21.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers through last season, the Phillies’ .330 wOBA is among the top eight in the majors. Yet they’re not without fault, as Philadelphia hit to the infield more than any team against right-handed pitchers, at a 9.1% rate. His strikeout prowess aside, deGrom a 9.7% infield-hit rate last season, along with stranding batters 79.7% of the time. Always among the priciest options on every slate, deGrom is deservingly so given his sky-high fantasy ceiling. He projects among the best scoring and value options by Awesemo for Monday’s main slate.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A

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Justus Sheffield: SEA vs. CWS — DraftKings $7,500, FanDuel $7,200

After a lackluster first game of the season, the Mariners have since won their last two games and assign Justus Sheffield to the mound to open their three-game homestand against the 1-3 White Sox. While Sheffield isn’t primarily a strikeout guy, he posted a sturdy 20.7% strikeout rate, 7.81 K/9, 3.58 ERA and .249 average against. Sheffield also accounted for a 3.17 FIP and 4.27 xFIP with a 0.33 HR/9. However, he is far from perfect, as Sheffield had a ho-hum 1.30 WHIP and .314 BABIP. Facing the White Sox may play into his ability avoid the long-ball while garnering outs from preventative pitching.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool places Sheffield around the middle of the pack with 16.9% ownership on DraftKings (fourth most among starters) and merely 4.6% on FanDuel (sixth most pitchers). Sheffield’s 13.93 DraftKings and 25.82 FanDuel projections and reasonable salary on DraftKings make him a mid- to high-end value as a 19.7% top-two value pitcher. However, he is considerably lesser value on FanDuel, with a 7.2% projected chance of being top value pitcher. Sheffield is among the top six options for being the top pitcher on both sites, with a 17.2% chance on DraftKings and 8.2% on FanDuel.

Chicago is a somewhat stifling opponent while offering an interesting matchup given Sheffield’s abilities. The White Sox are slated to roll out six righties, one lefty and two switch-hitters, which is a bit terrifying on paper. While their 143 wRC+ and league-leading 22.6% HR/FB rate against lefties since last season may make Sheffield a risky play, Chicago isn’t without its flaws against opposing left-handers. They have a 12.5% infield-hit rate (highest in majors) and a 45.3% ground ball rate (10th), which plays to Sheffield’s strengths. With a whopping 52% ground-ball rate, 7.8% in-field hit and just 5.9% HR/FB against right-handed hitters, Sheffield is in a great position to succeed at an affordable price on both sites.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value D

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value C

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Luis Garcia: HOU at LAA — DraftKings $6,100, FanDuel $5,700

Nobody provides the savings (alongside some promising talent) like the Astros’ Luis Garcia, even though the play does not seem the sexiest. Despite just 12 innings pitched in the condensed 2020 season, Garcia notched an 0.97 WHIP, .292 ERA and .163 average against. After spending three years in the Houston farm leagues and posting some outstanding strikeout numbers, Garcia’s efforts resulted in a 1-0 record with a .182 BABIP, 6.57 K/9, 18.4% strikeout rate and 4.25 FIP in 2020. Facing a daunting Anaheim roster, Garcia has the opportunity to make a name for himself following his minimized MLB debut.

Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool is not kind to Garcia numbers, projecting a dreadful 6.94 FanDuel points and just 2.0 DraftKings points according to Awesemo’s point projections. While Garcia is also projected for a terrifying 0% chance of being the top pitcher and 0.10% projected top value, he also projects for next to no ownership at just one-tenth of a percentile point. Being that Astros manager Dusty Baker named Garcia the fifth starter in the Houston rotation with Jake Odorizzi still preparing for his first start, getting to even a dabble of Garcia at such low ownership is enticing.

Venturing out west to open a three-game series with Anaheim, Garcia combats an Angels team with a righty-heavy batting order. While showing his struggles against lefties, Garcia struck out 25% of right-handed batters and had an 0.57 WOBHIP and .048 average against last season. In his recent spring training appearance, Garcia threw for a polar 12.7 K/9 and eight strikeouts with five earned runs. Although the Angels have posted a noteworthy 112 wRC+ and 11% walk rate against right-handed pitchers since last season, Garcia’s short stint in 2020 against right-handed batters proved promising, with a .124 wOBA and .167 on-base percentage. He is not without his faults and goes against the grain of daily fantasy baseball projections, but Garcia’s fiscally liberating salary point and select talents provide a cheap, low-owned pivot on Monday’s seven-game slate.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points E, Value E

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points E, Value E

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Author

Chris Giordani

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.