Following yesterday’s return to baseball, there is a six-game slate for Friday. MLB’s 2021 regular season has arrived and the return of the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide your slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.
Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 2
Blake Snell: Padres vs. Diamondbacks — DraftKings $9,700, FanDuel $9,500
On a San Diego team that cast a wide net in free agency over the past couple years, Blake Snell is among the treasures resurfaced in California’s southernmost ball club. Last year in Tampa Bay he contributed a solid 11.34 K/9, 31% strikeout rate, a .227 average against and a 1.20 WHIP. Averaging 17.1 DraftKings points and 28.09 FanDuel points in 2020, Snell was by no means a top-10 fantasy performer in the condensed 2020 season, but he remains a top option heading into Friday’s six-game schedule.
Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool gives Snell a 29.7% chance to be a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and an 11.3% on FanDuel, the second-best option on both sites (in relation to projection). Awesemo’s fantasy point projections of 19.57 DraftKings and 33.49 FanDuel solidify Snell as a top-two fantasy pitcher, while on the short slate the ownership will follow closely and drive down Snell’s projected value. As a 14.2% projected top-two value, Snell remains in the middle of the pack on DraftKings in that consideration as the seventh-highest-projected value among starting pitchers. On FanDuel Snell is the lowest-projected top-value pitcher at just 4.5%, correlating with Awesemo’s Ownership Projections where he’s forecast to be the second-most owned starting pitcher at 19.7% (and the most projected ownership on DraftKings at 40.3% with their two-pitcher format).
Snell has a bit of a tall order in front of him on Friday, as the Diamondbacks are projected to roll out five right-handed hitters and three switch-hitters. But Snell hasn’t wavered when facing opposite-handed batters, and his production hasn’t proven staggeringly different either. With a 10.65 K/9 against righties in tandem with an outstanding 86.7% left-on-base rate, .232 average and modest 1.35 WHIP, the opposite-handed opposition warrants little hesitation in rostering Snell on the shorter slate. Despite Snell’s 29.4% HR/FB rate last season, Arizona ranked dead last against left-handed pitchers in the same category, with just a 9.4% HR/FB rate and a 78 wRC+ (26th in 2020).
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value C
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Trevor Bauer: Dodgers at Rockies — DraftKings $10,500, FanDuel $10,000
Trevor Bauer has come to Los Angeles looks to make a statement on Opening Weekend. He is touting a stellar resume by the numbers, with a 12.33 K/9, 0.79 WHIP and .159 average in 2020 over 73 innings pitched. Taking on a new-look Rockies team, Bauer’s array of talents lands him as a top fantasy starting pitcher option according to Awesemo’s projections.
Going back to Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool, Bauer is the top projected pitcher on both sites, at 33.6% to finish top two on DraftKings and 19.4% on FanDuel. While Bauer is among the lesser-projected top value pitchers on the slate at 12.2% on DraftKings and 6.9% on FanDuel, he is due to garner much attention on a shorter slate. He is projected to be the highest owned starting pitcher on FanDuel at 30%, along with the third most on DraftKings at 29.3%. That said, he also has highest point projection among starting pitchers according to Awesemo’s MLB Fantasy Point Projections: 20.66 DraftKings and 44.23 FanDuel.
Facing a Colorado starting lineup projected for just three left-handed hitters, Bauer’s recent season stands as proof why the righty-heavy Rockies roster is nothing his pitching arsenal can’t dispatch of. He posted an outstanding 0.26 HR/9, 34.1% strikeout rate, 11.57 K/9 and 0.71 WHIP against opposing right-handed hitters last season, Bauer has the ability to light up the fantasy scoreboard against this Colorado lineup. Complemented by a 14.7% infield fly ball rate, Bauer also managed just 23.1% hard contact against right-handed hitters in 2020 (25.3% overall). Although the Rockies have gained new faces such as C.J. Cron, much of last season’s roster is intact, which represented a 11.5% HR/FB rate (26th in MLB) and a lowly 74 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers (29th). Albeit lacking in value given the stringent slate size (especially in two-pitcher formats), Bauer’s slate-leading projections make him a no-brainer top option heading into the weekend.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
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Pablo Lopez: Marlins vs. Rays — DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $7,800
The Marlins opened their 2021 season in a hard-fought 1-0 loss to Tampa Bay that came down to the wire until an Austin Meadows home run in the 8th inning. Dusting themselves off for the second game of the series, the Marlins roll reliable Pablo Lopez to the mound in an effort even out their win-loss record. Due to see a mixed bag from both sides of the plate against the Rays, Lopez is squared away to be a top value option.
Putting together a promising 2020 through a shortened season, Lopez threw for a sturdy 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 9.26 K/9 and 1.19 WHIP, which paved the way to 30.2 FanDuel points and 16.9 DraftKings points per game over his 6-4 record. According to Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool and premium Point Projections, Lopez stands out as a phenomenal option relative to production and value, as he has a 26.8% chance of being a top-two pitching option on DraftKings and 10.4% on FanDuel. With a fantasy point projection of 19.06 DraftKings and 32.81 FanDuel, Lopez correlates to a top value option in conjunction with affordable price points on both sites, with a 33.3% top-two value chance on DraftKings (highest among starters) and 10% top value pitcher on FanDuel.
The Rays are expected to use five lefty hitters and four righties. They present a challenging matchup at the plate, while the park factor at home for Lopez is a massive advantage in past outings for him. Last season at home Lopez posted an admirable 2.56 ERA, 0.57 HR/9, 25.2% strikeout rate, 0.59 WHIP, 3.3% walk rate and .222 average against. With a 52.2% ground ball rate playing into that success at home as well, Lopez’s projection and salary make him a top value for Friday.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value C
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