MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring daily fantasy baseball projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 22
Walker Buehler: LAD vs SDP — DraftKings $10,000; FanDuel $9,800
Walker Buehler is taking the mound at home against the Padres. Weather at Dodger Stadium will be a cool 56 degrees, with the Padres slated to roll out a slightly lopsided batting order against the right-handed Buehler. Averaging 16.6 DraftKings and 32 FanDuel points per game this season, Buehler has gone six innings in each of his three starts, and though his strikeouts are down from last season, so are his home runs surrendered.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Buehler a 34.70% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 15.0% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. He projects for 17.04 DraftKings and 30.10 FanDuel points at a premium that drives down his value ratings, with 16.70% top-two value on DraftKings and 4.5% top-value on FanDuel. With his ownership projections of 47.7% DraftKings and 34% on FanDuel, Buehler’s asking price doesn’t appear to be scaring off much of the field.
The Padres are projected to assign five right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter, presumably due to Buehler’s slightly rougher tenure against righties over his career. Last season against right-handed hitters, Buehler managed 8.83 K/9, a 25% strikeout rate, 0.98 WHIP, .180 average against, 8.8% walk rate, along with a concerning 2.08 HR/9 and 5.44 FIP. Facing left-handed hitters Buehler has fared much better, with 11.64 K/9 and a 31.6% strikeout rate, 0.93 WHIP, .176 average against, 6.3% walk rate, 3.40 FIP and still-glaring 1.40 HR/9 last season.
The heart of the Padres batting order consisting of power right-handed hitters Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr./strong> and Wil Myers may prove troublesome for Buehler, as he’s given up 42.6% hard contact to righties over the past two seasons. While the Padres over the past two seasons have only struck out 20.5% against righties, they have hit for a .195 ISO, .253 batting average, .335 on-base percentage, 113 wRC+ and 16.4% HR/FB rate. Buehler faces a tall task, but he has proven he can go the distance in tough spots and projects to be a top pitching option for Thursday’s five-game main slate.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value D
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Nick Pivetta: BOS vs SEA — DraftKings $7,400; FanDuel $8,200
The Red Sox are off to a hot start in 2021 and look to continue the pace against the Mariners with Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has improved upon his previous year in 2021, with his fastball velocity up as well. With weather at Fenway dipping beneath 40 degrees around time of first pitch, Pivetta will be squaring off with a favorable right-handed Mariners batting order.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Pivetta a 28.5% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 12.5% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. He projects for 15.46 DraftKings and 27.92 FanDuel points, coinciding with his 31% top-two value projection on DraftKings, though he has just a 7.2% top-value on FanDuel due to a higher asking price. Pivetta’s ownership projections of 43.1% DraftKings and 21.3% on FanDuel signify popularity among the field on Thursday’s short slate.
The Mariners project for six righties on Thursday night. Pivetta has had more success against right-handed hitters, with 10.24 K/9, a 26.8% strikeout rate, .250 average against and 7.3% walk rate, though he surrendered 1.86 HR/9 and a 4.85 FIP last season. Facing left-handed hitters is where Pivetta raises red flags, with a .333 average against, 10.0% walk rate, 3.0 HR/9 and 7.02 FIP in 2020.
The trouble at the plate projects to be staggered throughout the Seattle lineup, with left-handed power in Kyle Seager hitting third, and Taylor Trammell and J.P. Crawford batting toward the end of the Mariners’ order. Yet Seattle has struck out 24.5% and has a .239 batting average, .149 ISO, .316 on-base rate and 99 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two seasons. At a fair price on a short slate, Pivetta provides a fair combination of frugality and solid point projections on an iffy selection of pitchers.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value C
Joey Lucchesi: NYM at CHC — DraftKings $6,500; FanDuel $6,400
Joey Lucchesi has been getting eased into a full workload over his past two starts, pitching two and three innings in harsh environments, including Coors Field. Lucchesi has shown improvement, as his fastball velocity is nearly matching his career best at around 91 mph. Venturing into Wrigley Field to match up with the Cubs, Lucchesi’s strikeout progression may come a bit easier considering Chicago’s resume against left-handed pitching.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Lucchesi a 31% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 13.4% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, an excellent projection at his cost. His top-value projections are even better, at 42.8% on DraftKings and 17.5% on FanDuel. The savings and point projections make him popular among the field, with ownership projections of 41.30% on DraftKings and 12.8% on FanDuel.
The Cubs project to throw five right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter at Lucchesi. In 2019, Lucchesi slung 8.62 K/9, a 22.9% strikeout rate, 1.21 WHIP, .236 average against, 7.6% walk rate, 1.35 HR/9 and 4.25 FIP versus right-handed hitters. Facing left-handed hitters, Lucchesi earned 8.94 K/9 with a 23.4% strikeout rate, .221 average against, 10.1% walk rate, 3.91 FIP and 0.96 HR/9 in 2019.
The early-to-middle portion of the Cubs projected batting order could make for an early exit for Lucchesi, with Willson Contreras, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant posing powerful right-handed threats at the two, three and five spots in the Chicago hitting rotation. However, the Cubs have struck out 26.1% against lefties over the last year while hitting for just a .202 batting average, .138 ISO, .308 on-base, 81 wRC+ and 15.1% HR/FB . With a strikeout-heavy Cubs lineup in weather forecast for the mid-30s around first pitch, Lucchesi provides major salary relief and potential for significant fantasy production at his price point.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value A
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