MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring daily fantasy baseball projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 20
Corbin Burnes: MIL at SD — DraftKings $10,800, FanDuel $10,500
Corbin Burnes takes the mound in the third game of the Brewers’ road trip to San Diego and coming off a fantastic three starts this season. Cresting just over 97 mph with his fastball this season, Burnes has 14.73 K/p, a 48.4% strikeout rate, .067 average against, 0.22 WHIP, 0.86 FIP, 0.49 HR/9 and is stranding 100% of batters reaching bases. While Burnes is having a remarkable beginning to 2021, he will have his hands full on Tuesday against a potent Padres lineup.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Burnes a 27% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 14.1% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, the best option on both sites. Awesemo’s projections have Burnes slated for 22.28 DraftKings and 37.54 FanDuel points, though his price mitigates his value somewhat. Also Burnes’ projected ownership of29% on DraftKings and 19.2% on FanDuel signify Burnes’ popularity.
Facing five righties and one switch-hitter, Burnes will have his work cut out for him, yet this isn’t an insurmountable assignment. He fared slightly better against righties last year, with a 0.84 WHIP, .140 average against, 13.17 K/9, 38.1% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, 2.06 FIP and 0.33 HR/9. He had 13.36 K/9, a 35.6% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate, .200 average against, 1.18 WHIP, 3.11 xFIP and 2.02 FIP against lefties. Since last season, the Padres have a .254 batting average, 20.2% strikeout rate, .337 on-base percentage, 114 wRC+ and 16.7% HR/FB rate against right-handed pitchers. Given a massive slate of pitching options, Burnes arguably provides the highest fantasy ceiling of them all.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
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Zack Wheeler: PHI vs. SF — DraftKings $9,800, FanDuel $9,400
The Phillies look to bounce back from Monday’s series-opening 2-0 loss to the Giants by assigning Zack Wheeler to the mound. Wheeler is averaging 19.44 DraftKings and 36.66 FanDuel points per game across three starts (18.0 innings pitched), and he draws a fair opportunity to put up significant fantasy totals after losing his last two starts. Awesemo is projecting Wheeler for 16.45 DraftKings and 29.50 FanDuel points, but he has just a 2.6% top-two value pitcher on DraftKings and 3.1% overall top value pitcher on FanDuel. That said, his projected ownership of 9.7% on DraftKings and 10% on FanDuel makes him much more palatable
The Giants are slated to throw out five left-handed hitters, and Wheeler’s splits are pretty similar against lefties and righties. Since last year against right-handed pitching, the Giants have hit for a .251 average, 23.7% strikeout rate, .168 ISO, .320 on-base percentage and 101 wRC+. On a 13-game main slate of pitching options, Wheeler offers a spend-up selection with the potential for significant fantasy totals.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value D
Eduardo Rodriguez: BOS vs. TOR — DraftKings $8,000, FanDuel $8,300
Eduardo Rodriguez has returned from his absence in 2020 and is settling back into his rhythm. Averaging 20.3 DraftKings and 33 FanDuel points in his two starts, he is taking on a tenacious Blue Jays lineup, which will be a test. Still, Rodriguez warrant fantasy consideration. Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Rodriguez a 9.4% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 7.0% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, and his value projections are about the same — 6.6% top-two value on DraftKings and 4.9% top value on FanDuel. However, his ownership is projecting to be considerably lower — below 5% on both sites, so those top-pitcher projections show he is a relatively high-upside option without the price risk of the top-end starters.
Toronto will send eight righties to take on the lefty Rodriguez, so he is getting the kitchen sink tonight. Yet in 2019, Rodriguez had 0.84 HR/9 and a 10.1% HR/FB rate against right-handed hitters,, while those numbers exploded to 28.1% HR/FB and 1.93 HR/9 against lefties. However, since 2020, Toronto has hit a .262 batting average, 23.9% strikeout rate, .326 on-base rate and 105 wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers, with a manageable 14.4% HR/FB rate. With a batting order stacked against him on paper, his more recent splits have shown Rodriguez can navigate the right-handed hitters fairly well. He makes for a great pivot on the enormous Tuesday main slate.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value C
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