MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 14
Corbin Burnes: MIL vs. CHC — DraftKings $9,600, FanDuel $10,400
Wednesday’s early slate presents four- and five-game itineraries on each FanDuel and DraftKings, and Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes stands out above the other early pitching options. Averaging 31.7 DraftKings and 51 FanDuel points per game over his first two starts, Burnes has 14.59 K/9, a 48.8% strikeout rate, 0.73 ERA, .051 average against and 1.44 FIP. Welcoming the Cubs to American Family Field, Burnes is aligned to continue his masterful 2021 start.
Awesemo’s projections of 22.32 DraftKings and 35.58 FanDuel points translate directly to Burnes’ top-pitcher projections, as he remains the top option in the first batch of games today. With a 2.42 value rating on DraftKings and 3.71 on FanDuel, Burnes’ high salary is manageable. Awesemo’s projections of 60% ownership on DraftKings and 51.5% on FanDuel come as no surprise, with Burnes standing far above the remaining options.
Facing off with a Cubs team slated rolling out three left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter, Burnes is in prime position to dispatch Chicago. The Cubs since last season have produced a 26.4% strikeout rate, .305 wOBA, .215 batting average and 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Burnes has posted 13.25 K/9, 36.5% strikeout rate, .211 average against, .296 BABIP and 1.04 WHIP in his career against righties. When it comes to the early slate, locking in Burnes to a majority share of lineups doesn’t appear at all unreasonable.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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Dustin May: LAD vs. COL — DraftKings $9,400, FanDuel $9,000
May has become a staple of the Dodgers rotation, earning himself a much longer leash in 2021. In his first start of the season against Oakland, May pitched six innings of two-hit, eight-strikeout baseball with no earned runs in the start, achieving 31.1 DraftKings and 52 FanDuel points. Compared to his 7.07 K/9, 19.6% strikeout rate, .217 average against, 1.09 WHIP and 4.62 FIP last season, May’s intro to 2021 provided a glimpse of his high-end potential, with 12.00 K/9, a 34.8% strikeout rate, 0.095 average against, 0.67 WHIP and 1.48 FIP. Facing a subpar Rockies roster for the second game of the Dodgers’ homestand, May is a spend-up option worthy of pivot consideration for Wednesday’s main slate.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives May a 26.2% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 11.2% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. Given his high-end asking price that does not tip the scale, May projects as a 14.7% top-two value on DraftKings and 5.4% top value on FanDuel. On a seven-game slate of options with only about half of them viable, Awesemo’s projections of 24.2% ownership on DraftKings and 11.2% on FanDuel make plenty of sense.
May is taking on a struggling Rockies team with four lefties and five right-handed hitters. In his third season in the majors, May’s career splits have provided parity in some areas, as he has struck out 21.7% of left-handed hitters and 21.6% of righties. May’s 0.74 WHIP and 3.22 xFIP against right-handed hitters are more promising than the 1.50 WHIP and 4.52 xFIP he has against lefties in his career, yet the absence from Coors Field shouldn’t hurt his cause. Dating back through last season, the Rockies have posted a 24.2% strikeout rate, .243 batting average, .299 wOBA, and 71 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and had just one hit against righty Trevor Bauer last night. While his career splits have proven shaky, May is shaping up to be an outstanding starting pitcher who can go the distance.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value D
Charlie Morton: ATL vs. MIA — DraftKings $7,600, FanDuel $8,500
Say what you will about Charlie Morton‘s age (he’s 37); the guy is a timeless gem. Following another World Series appearance, Morton has since journeyed to Atlanta and most recently posted a four-hit, seven-strikeout performance that earned 26.5 DraftKings and 46 FanDuel against the Phillies. Facing off with a righty-heavy roster, Morton looks to continue his concrete resume in the Majors in his fourteenth season.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Morton a 28.7% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 12.9% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel as a mid-cost option. Awesemo’s projections of 17.59 DraftKings and 31.13 FanDuel points make Morton an enticing roster decision, especially when looking at everyone surrounding his salary tier. Morton’s affordability translate to a projected 30.2% top-two value on DraftKings and 7.5% top value on FanDuel.
In the third game of the Marlins’ trip to Atlanta, Miami to have seven righties in their batting order. Last season Morton notched a .255 FIP, .305 average against, 0.42 HR/9 and concerning 1.43 WHIP against right-handed hitters while stranding 79.1% of them on-base. While the Marlins have woken up their bats as of late, when facing right-handed pitchers through last season Miami has struck out 25.2%, hitting just a .116 ISO, .295 wOBA and earning an 88 wRC+. Although the slew of runs scored against them in last night’s matchup may turn some heads, Morton’s frugality and ability to mitigate damage is worth the roster consideration.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value A
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