The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Sept. 9
Marcus Stroman ($9,400 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) headlines a strange pitching slate. While Stroman is not typically a great DFS option because of his 21.3% strikeout rate, he is easily the best combination of talent and matchup on tonight’s slate. He is a good pitcher with a 3.65 xFIP this season, and he gets an excellent matchup against the Marlins, who have a 25.2% strikeout rate and 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Jose Berrios ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) has a much more difficult matchup than Stroman, but he is also the better strikeout pitcher, with a 25.8% strikeout rate this season. Many of his numbers are like Stroman’s, as he has a 3.62 xFIP and an identical 6.1% walk rate. The Yankees have a 24.5% strikeout rate and 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Stroman is the higher projected of the two pitchers at this price point, but Berrios certainly has a high enough ceiling to be a viable GPP pivot. There are also rain concerns in this game, so be sure to keep an eye on weather updates.
Huascar Ynoa ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) leads the slate with a 26.8% strikeout rate in 12 starts this season. The Nationals active roster has an 89 wRC+ and 23.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, but it is worth noting that they have hit relatively well since the trade deadline. Over that time, Washington has a 104 wRC+ and has only struck out 20.6% of the time.
Ranger Suarez ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) spent most of the season in the Phillies bullpen, but he was moved to the starting rotation after they acquired Ian Kennedy to handle the closer’s role at the trade deadline. In seven starts this season, Suarez has struck out 23.1% of hitters and has a 3.79 xFIP. He has gotten lucky in terms of home runs and strand rate, with zero home runs allowed in those starts and an 85% left-on-base rate, but he has held hitters to a .262 xwOBA, which suggests that he has mostly been able to avoid hard contact. He has a favorable matchup against the Rockies, who have struck out 25.1% of the time and have a 70 wRC+ outside of Coors Field this season. Colorado’s lineup is almost entirely right-handed, but Suarez has held righties to a .092 xISO and .276 xwOBA this season and a .292 xwOBA since moving to the starting rotation.
John Means ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) is relatively inexpensive, particularly on DraftKings, as he takes on the Royals. The Royals are a difficult team to strike out, as they have just an 18.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. They also have a slightly below-average 96 wRC+ and a .148 ISO, however, so it is not an overly imposing spot in terms of likely production. In addition, Kansas City will probably be a popular stack because they offer value at several positions in addition to the best catching option in baseball. Means enters the game with a 22.9% strikeout rate that is the fourth highest on the slate and an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He has had home run issues this season, with 1.81 home runs per nine innings, but a relatively cool night in Baltimore and the lack of power in Kansas City’s lineup are likely to help in that regard.
It is worth noting that in nine starts since returning from the injured list Means has only struck out 19.3% of hitters while allowing two home runs per nine innings and a 4.98 xFIP. He appears to have had some bad luck over those starts, however, as opposing hitters have a .346 wOBA compared to a .310 xwOBA. Long story short, this is a risky spot for Means, but most pitchers on this slate are risky, and Means is available at a discount.
Jesus Luzardo ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is another risky left-hander at a cheap price tag as he takes on the Mets in Miami. The home ballpark works in Luzardo’s favor, but it is still difficult to have much confidence in him based on his numbers this season. As a starter Luzardo has only struck out 21.3% of hitters while posting a 5.05 xFIP, 11.1% walk rate and 1.60 home runs allowed per nine innings. The Mets active roster has been average against left-handed pitching this season, with a 99 wRC+, .145 ISO and 23.6% strikeout rate.
Carlos Hernandez ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) has predictably seen a drop-off in strikeouts since moving to the starting rotation, striking out 19.1% of hitters as a starter compared to 30.5% of hitters as a reliever. He has done a relatively good job of limiting production in his eight starts, however, with a .306 xwOBA allowed and 0.83 home runs per nine innings. There is plenty of risk here, especially if the Orioles return Trey Mancini and/or Ramon Urias to the lineup, but Hernandez is an inexpensive SP2 option on a slate with a lot of pitching volatility.
Salvador Perez ($6,100 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel)
Peter Alonso ($4,800 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel)
Garrett Hampson ($2,700 DraftKings/$2,500 FanDuel)
Jonathan Villar ($4,400 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel)
Adalberto Mondesi ($4,500 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel)
Cedric Mullins ($4,700 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel)
Jorge Soler ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel)
Anthony Santander ($3,500 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel)
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Atlanta Braves
- Kansas City Royals
- Toronto Blue Jays
Top Under-owned Stacks: Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets
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📽️ MLB DFS Picks: Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy Show for DraftKings & FanDuel at 10 a.m. ET | 9/20/21