The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in depth look into the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 16
Top Pitchers
Gerrit Cole ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel) headlines a relatively weak pool of pitchers tonight. Cole will be making his first start in about two weeks, as he was sidelined with COVID. His absence increases the risk somewhat since the length of his leash tonight is unknown, but the assumption is that he will be able to handle his normal workload as long as he is pitching well. Cole’s 34.4% strikeout rate and 2.87 xFIP this season lead the slate. The Angels lineup offers plenty of strikeout upside thanks to the additions of Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh, who have both been extremely strikeout prone early in their careers.
Kevin Gausman ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) has been better this season than every pitcher on tonight’s slate except for Cole. Gausman has struck out 29.8% of hitters and has a 2.87 xFIP. He will face the Mets tonight in one of the best parks for pitchers in the league. Gausman has not been quite as dominant lately as he was earlier in the season, but he has still struck out 27.1% of hitters over his last five starts and has a 3.81 xFIP. There are two glaring concerns over that stretch. One is that he has a 12.1% walk rate, compared to 7.9% for the full season. The other is that he has not thrown more than 91 pitches in any of those starts. Gausman was pulled from his most recent start after five innings and 87 pitches. He is still one of the top pitching plays on tonight’s slate, but there are some reasons to be concerned about paying an elevated price tag for Gausman.
Get 25% Off Awesemo+ NFL Annual Using promo code BLITZ, you can get 25% off the Awesemo+ NFL package — our best value NFL subscription of the years! This includes full access to everything we have to offer for NFL DFS, including Preseason DFS projections and updated depth charts.Frankie Montas ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) started out slowly against Cleveland in his last start, but he ended up pitching six innings and striking out six hitters on his way to 20.5 DraftKings points. Montas has gone at least six innings in six straight starts. His 26.4% strikeout rate is the third best on the slate, and he has a very good 3.67 xFIP this season. Montas has struck out left-handed hitters at a 31.2% clip this season, while he has only struck out righties 22.1% of the time. This would be concerning if Montas did not have a track record of being better at striking out right-handed hitters (as we would expect) for his career. Not surprisingly, his strikeout numbers against righties have increased recently, with a 27.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters over his last 10 starts and a 32.8% strikeout rate against righties over his last five starts. The White Sox have a predominantly right-handed lineup with plenty of power, but there are also a lot of strikeouts, as Chicago’s projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 27.5% against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season. That number is inflated somewhat by Seby Zavala’s 48.2% strikeout rate in 56 plate appearances, but even without him the average strikeout rate is still a healthy 24.9%.
Touki Touissant ($8,400 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) has a high ceiling and one of the best matchups on the slate. He also has an extremely wide range of outcomes, as there is no way to know what he will offer from start to start. Touissant has struck out 24.1% of hitters in five starts for Atlanta this season, but he has also allowed 1.65 home runs per nine innings. He has only walked 7.8% of hitters in those starts, but he walked 15.5% of hitters in four starts at Triple-A this season. He also walked 13.3% of hitters in seven appearances (five starts) with Atlanta last season and 13.1% of hitters in 24 appearances (one start) with the Braves in 2019. It is probably just a matter of time until his walk issues resurface during this stint with Atlanta as well. The matchup against Miami is excellent for Toussaint, as the Marlins active roster has the sixth-lowest walk rate against right-handed pitching this season and the third-worst ISO against righties. Their 24.7% strikeout rate is also the seventh highest in baseball. Toussaint is one of the best pitching options on this slate, but it is important to keep in mind in tournaments that he is an extremely volatile pitcher who is likely to get a ton of ownership.
Wade Miley ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) is nowhere near as exciting as Toussaint, as he has only struck out 18.5% of hitters this season. He has a respectable 4.09 xFIP and has only allowed .71 home runs per nine innings. He has had some good luck as his 3.00 ERA is about a run lower than his xFIP, and his xISO numbers are worse than his actual ISO numbers. Still, the Cubs are a below-average offense, and Miley has a good chance for success against them.
Top Hitters
Yan Gomes ($2,800 DraftKings/$2,900 FanDuel) is inexpensive and in an appealing spot against Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel has struck out just 13.1% of right-handed hitters this season while allowing a .377 xwOBA and .203 xISO. Gomes has a .411 xwOBA and .274 xISO in 184 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season. If Sean Murphy starts in place of Gomes, he will also be a top catching option despite being somewhat more expensive.
Connor Joe ($2,800 DraftKings/$2,900 FanDuel) is simply mispriced for a hitter in a favorable matchup (or ever) in Coors Field. Joe is essentially a career minor leaguer who only has 154 career plate appearances at the major league level. He has a 92 wRC+ and .167 ISO in those plate appearances. Still, he is likely to be hitting near the top of the lineup, and he will be facing Ryan Weathers, who has allowed a .354 xwOBA and .203 xISO to right-handed hitters this season while only striking out 18.9% of them.
Adam Frazier ($4,100 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is on the other side of the game in Coors Field and will be facing Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela has done a good job of limited production this season, particularly against left-handed hitters, as he has held them to a .312 xwOBA and .100 xISO. In Coors Field lefties have just a .276 wOBA and zero home runs in 135 plate appearances this season. Still, Frazier is not priced up for his hitting environment, and he stands out as a top second base option.
Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) faces Griffin Jax, who has mostly been terrible this season. Jax has made nine total appearances, including five starts. He has allowed 2.37 home runs per nine innings over that time while striking out 20% of hitters. Ramirez has a .356 wOBA and .266 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season and is one of the highest upside hitters on tonight’s slate.
Fernando Tatis ($6,100 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) returned from the injured list with a two-homer game against Arizona last night. Now he gets to hit in Coors Field. Tatis is one of the best hitters in baseball and is almost always going to be a top shortstop option thanks to a .434 wOBA and .367 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Keep in mind that his popularity on DraftKings does open the door for high upside alternatives such as Jake Cronenworth and Trevor Story to get less ownership than they normally would in their situations, which makes them very strong tournament options.
Yordan Alvarez ($4,400 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) is completely mispriced on DraftKings and he is a strong option on FanDuel as well. Alvarez has a .407 wOBA and .302 ISO in 494 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season. He will face Carlos Hernandez of the Royals. While Hernandez does have good stuff, Alvarez is too good of a hitter to be this inexpensive, and he will be hitting in the middle of the order for a team with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate.
Michael Brantley ($3,300 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel) is another underpriced Houston bat. He is likely to be very popular, as he will help people pay up for pitching, but he projects as one of the best value bats on the slate. Brantley has a .397 wOBA and .203 ISO in 842 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season. He is likely to be in most good players’ cash lineups tonight.
Trent Grisham ($4,100 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) will probably be hitting towards the bottom of the order for San Diego, but that is likely to keep his ownership in check as people flock toward the hitters at the top of the order. Grisham has a .337 wOBA and .195 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season and he offers a power and speed combination that plays very well in Coors Field.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- San Diego Padres
- Houston Astros
- Colorado Rockies
Top Low-Owned Stacks: Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
