The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in depth look into the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 16
Top Pitchers
Corbin Burnes ($10,200 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) is far and away the best pitcher on tonight’s slate. He leads the slate with a 36.1% strikeout rate and 2.19 xFIP this season. He has also only walked 4.4% of hitters and has only allowed 0.37 home runs per nine innings. Awesemo has him projected to be the highest-scoring pitcher on DraftKings by more than 2 points.
Chris Bassitt ($9,100 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) has a dangerous matchup against the White Sox, but it is also a matchup that offers upside, as there are plenty of strikeouts to be had in Chicago’s lineup. Bassitt has a 25.3% rate and a 3.84 xFIP. He is not expected to get much ownership, which makes him an appealing option in GPPs.
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Logan Webb ($8,800 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) is another pitcher to pay up for at relatively low ownership in DraftKings tournaments. He is more favorably priced on FanDuel, though the opportunity cost is higher since FanDuel only requires one pitcher. Webb has a 25.9% strikeout rate and a 3.02 xFIP, and he will be facing the Mets at home in one of the best places to pitch in baseball. He has thrown at least 90 pitches in three straight starts and has pitched six innings in four in a row.
Alek Manoah ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel) stands out as one of the top SP2 options on DraftKings as he takes on the Nationals. Washington has one of the weakest lineups in baseball, and Manoah is having a very good rookie season. He has a 29.3% 3.91 xFIP. He will be one of the most popular arms on DraftKings, as he projects as the best option in his price range.
Huascar Ynoa ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) returns from the 60-day injured list to face the Marlins in Miami. While Ynoa has not started a game for Atlanta since May, he did throw 83 pitches in his most recent rehab outing. Prior to his injury, Ynoa had a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 3.14 xFIP. There is always some uncertainty about what to expect when a pitcher returns from a long absence, but Ynoa’s inexpensive price tag mitigates much of the risk.
Top Hitters
Mitch Garver ($3,900 DraftKings/$2,700 FanDuel) is very inexpensive in a favorable matchup against Eli Morgan and the Indians. Morgan has allowed a .210 xISO and .331 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Garver has plenty of power as he has posted a .373 xwOBA and .230 xISO in 113 plate appearances against righties this season and a .336 xwOBA and .237 xISO in 398 plate appearances against them since the start of the 2019 season.
C.J. Cron ($4,900 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) will face Matt Strahm and the Padres bullpen tonight in Coors Field. While it typically is not appealing to target bullpen games, the Rockies have a 6.1 implied run total as it is warm, and the wind will be blowing out. Cron has a .451 wOBA and .371 ISO in 159 at bats in Coors Field this season.
Trea Turner ($5,000 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) has a great matchup against Wil Crowe and the Pirates’ bullpen. Crowe has allowed a .393 xwOBA and .250 xISO to right-handed hitters this season while Turner has a .360 wOBA and .201 ISO in 977 plate appearances against righties since the start of the 2019 season. Turner may have trouble stealing on Crowe as he has allowed just one stolen base this season, but that is not enough of a deterrent to keep Turner from being one of the top second base options tonight.
Josh Donaldson ($3,500 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel) has a .399 xwOBA and .267 xISO in 242 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, and he will get to face Morgan tonight in Minnesota. He is currently projected to be one of the highest-owned players on DraftKings, so it makes sense to look elsewhere in GPPs, but Donaldson is one of the best options at third base for cash games.
Fernando Tatis ($5,900 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) is projected to be the highest-owned hitter on the slate, which is not surprising since he is a phenomenal hitter and the shortstop position doesn’t typically offer many great options. Tatis has a relatively difficult matchup against German Marquez, who has struck out 30.7% of right-handed hitters this season while holding them to a .269 xwOBA and .134 xISO. Still, this game is being played in good hitting weather in Coors Field, so I will take my chances on Tatis.
Nelson Cruz ($4,700 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) faces John Means and a horrendous Orioles’ bullpen. While the matchup with Means is not ideal, Cruz should get at least one or two plate appearances against terrible relief pitchers once Means is out of the game — and he can certainly do damage against Means as well. Means has allowed a .201 xISO to right-handed hitters this season and Cruz has posted a .453 xwOBA and .367 xISO against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season.
Connor Joe ($2,800 DraftKings/$2,900 FanDuel) led off with a home run last night, and he will most likely be hitting at the top of the lineup for the Rockies again tonight. Joe is a career minor league who has a 98 wRC+ and .183 ISO through his first 55 major league games. He will probably be more popular than he should be in GPPs because he projects as one of the best point-per-dollar hitters on the slate, but he should be a staple in cash lineups.
Robbie Grossman ($3,300 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is one of my favorite pivots away from Joe in GPPs, as he is projected for about one-third the ownership on DraftKings. Grossman has a .336 xwOBA and .173 xISO in 506 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since the start of last season, and he faces Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a .203 xISO to left-handed hitters this season while only striking out 19.5%. Bundy has also been below average at preventing stolen bases in every season since 2018. Grossman has swiped a career high 13 bags this season.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
Top Low-Owned Stacks: Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics
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