The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in depth look into the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
Check out the MLB DFS Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock show on the Awesemo YouTube Channel for breaking MLB lineups, news and more expert picks.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 24
Top Pitchers
Corbin Burnes ($10,600/$11500) is having one of the best seasons in baseball. He enters tonight’s game with a 35.1% strikeout rate, 2.33 xFIP and 4.6% walk rate, all of which are the best on the slate. He also has held opponents to 0.35 home runs per nine innings this season. He faces the Reds, who have a potent offense but will be without one of their best hitters in Jesse Winker. Cincinnati has the lowest implied run total on the slate, and Burnes is a clear top option.
Jack Flaherty ($9,600 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) threw 92 pitches in his last start, so it is safe to assume that he will not be restricted tonight in his third start since returning from the injured list. Flaherty has struck out 26.9% of hitters this season and has a 3.80 xFIP. He faces the Tigers, who have one of the weakest offenses in baseball. The Tigers’ active roster has a 90 wRC+ and 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Charlie Morton ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) has a relatively dangerous matchup against the Yankees, but that matchup also comes with plenty of strikeout upside. Morton has been excellent this season, striking out 28.4% of hitters and has a 3.33 xFIP and only allowing 0.77 home runs per nine innings. New York’s lineup will be a bit weaker than normal since they do not have a designated hitter tonight, and outside of D.J. LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo, everyone in the projected lineup has struck out at least 27.3% of the time against right-handed pitching since the start of last season.
German Marquez ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) is an extremely talented pitcher who gets to face a terrible Cubs lineup outside of Coors Field. Chicago leads the league in strikeout rate since they traded most of their talent at the deadline, and they are in the bottom six in most offensive categories over that time as well. Marquez has struck out 25.1% of hitters and has a 3.48 xFIP overall this season; outside of Coors Field the numbers are almost identical. Marquez is relatively inexpensive compared to the other top tier arms on this slate, and he is one of the best mid-range pitchers.
Madison Bumgarner ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) is rarely recommended, but he is a strong value option as an SP2 tonight on DraftKings. Bumgarner has been a mediocre pitcher this season, with a 21.1% strikeout rate and 4.65 xFIP. He is facing the Pirates, however, and they are one of the most favorable matchups in baseball. Pittsburgh’s active roster has a 70 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, which is the worst in the majors, and they have also struck out 24.2% of the time.
Top Hitters
Christian Vazquez ($3,200 DraftKings/$2,300 FanDuel) is hitting ninth for the Red Sox tonight, which is obviously not optimal. He is affordably priced, however, at a weak catcher position. The Red Sox have a massive 6.4 implied run total tonight against Griffin Jax and the Twins. Vazquez is a mediocre hitter, with a .318 wOBA against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season. He is in a favorable offensive environment, however, so he projects as a quality value option.
Shohei Ohtani ($6,400 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) is one of the best hitting options on the slate, as usual. He faces Spenser Watkins tonight at Camden Yards. Watkins has been better against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters in a limited sample this season, but it is likely that his numbers against lefties will get worse as the sample grows. Ohtani has a .390 xwOBA and .284 xISO against right-handed pitching this season and gets a favorable park shift.
Tommy Edman ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel) has underperformed this season, with a .284 xwOBA and .088 xISO in 399 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He is likely to be leading off against Casey Mize, however, and second base is a relatively weak position on tonight’s slate. Mize has had issues with left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .383 xwOBA and .287 xISO. Paying down for Edman in a favorable matchup allows for spending up on the top options at stronger positions.
Yonny Hernandez ($2,400 DraftKings/$2,500 FanDuel) projects as a below-average hitter, but he does offer stolen base upside. Most importantly, he is extremely inexpensive and is likely to be hitting at the top of the Rangers lineup. He will be facing Eli Morgan, who has allowed a .352 xwOBA and .249 xISO to left-handed hitters this season. There are some quality pay-up options at third base tonight as well, including Jose Ramirez, but Hernandez is a strong point-per-dollar option if looking to pay up elsewhere.
Cedric Mullins ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) gets to face his former teammate, Dylan Bundy, tonight in Baltimore. Bundy has been awful this season, allowing 1.81 home runs per nine innings, and returning to Camden Yards is not likely to help his struggles. Against lefties specifically, Bundy has allowed a .332 xwOBA and .195 xISO. Mullins has a .363 xwOBA and .187 xISO against right-handed pitching this season. Mullins also enters the game with 22 stolen bases while Bundy has allowed six stolen bases in 89.1 innings pitched this season and has graded out as below average at preventing stolen bases every season since 2018.
Kyle Schwarber ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is hitting second for the Red Sox tonight against Jax. Jax has allowed 1.72 home runs per nine innings this season while striking out just 18.5% of hitters. Including his time with Washington, Schwarber has a .425 xwOBA and .365 xISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Justin Upton ($3,400 DraftKings/$2,900 FanDuel) gets a park upgrade and a great matchup along with it. Watkins has allowed a .394 xwOBA and .294 xISO to right-handed hitters this season while striking out just 11.1%. While most of Upton’s power in recent seasons has come against left-handed pitching, this still sets up as a prime matchup against a righty who is unlikely to strike him out.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Los Angeles Angels
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
Top Under-owned Stacks: Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves
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