Saturday, Sept. 19, has an afternoon game set and then an 11-game main slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
Early-Slate Picks
Toronto Blue Jays at RHP Vince Velasquez – 4.4 implied runs
This has been a forgettable season for Velasquez who has been working out of the pen and as a starter. While he has allowed home runs in only two of his five starts, he was tagged for a pair in each. Since the beginning of last season, the sixth year veteran has allowed lefties to compile a 1.64 HR/9, 10.1 BB% with a .215 ISO. Same-handed hitters have destroyed with a 2.12 HR/9, 7.8 BB% and a .240 ISO in the same timeframe.
The top of the Blue Jays order packs a wallop with Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez all posting .200+ ISOs in the last season and change. Lourdes Gurriel and Travis Shaw are fine differentiation plays and of course crown jewel Vladimir Guerrero Jr.is the lynchpin.
Related MLB Content
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- The MLB Strategy Show Live Before Lock
Main-Slate Picks
St Louis Cardinals at RHP Mitch Keller – 4.6 implied runs
While this is not a sexy spot, the Redbirds do provide some contrarian stack appeal. Keller has had a rough go this season allowing two home runs in each of his last two starts. While the 24-year old has just 58.2 innings under his belt in The Show, they have been mostly uninspiring albeit with one silver lining. Even with a 6.75 ERA, 1.790 WHIP and 10 home runs allowed, he still has an eye-popping 11.0 K/9 rate. Though he has exclusively been a starter, his path to success may be as a multiple inning reliever.
The 127 lefties have tallied a 22.0 K%, 2.10 HR/9 with a .230 ISO while 145 righties have been somewhat held in check with a 30.3 K%, 1.09 HR/9 and a .220 ISO. Kolten Wong, Brad Miller, Matt Carpenter and switch-hitting Tommy Edman should be our primary targets swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate.
Coors Field Extravaganza
Los Angeles Dodgers at RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez – 7.5 implied runs
Last night the Boys in Blue certainly did not disappoint plating 15 runs across a collection of five different Rockies pitchers. Tune into tonight’s Live Before Lock to see how many times I refer to Gonzalez as Chi Chi Rodriguez – hey, at least we have a golf major going on this weekend!
Gonzalez has made two starts and two relief appearances lasting just 9.1 innings while allowing ten runs to score with seven walks and ten strikeouts. The last 174 righty/righty matchups have yielded a 1.55 HR/9 with a 9.2 BB%. In that same period 150 lefties have accumulated a 1.71 HR/9 with a 16.0 BB%. Literally anyone in the starting lineup for the Dodgers is worthy of consideration.
Late-Slate Picks
San Diego Padres vs. LHP Justus Sheffield – 4.7 implied runs
Keep in mind that this game is in Petco Park with the Mariners as the home team. Sheffield has been quite effective this season and this is a late-slate recommendation only. Through 44.1 innings, the southpaw has allowed just two home runs, though they have come in his last three starts. Through eight starts he has allowed more than two runs only three times. However the Mariners bullpen has been b-a-d BAD! They have the worst xFIP at 5.41 and SIERA at 4.79 with the fifth worst ERA at 5.04, 20.9 K% and second highest home run rate at 1.66 HR/9.
For the main slate, the usual Padres are in play as one-offs for home run upside though on the late-slate we are hoping to get to the Seattle relievers. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. Wil Myers, Austin Nola and the recently returned Tommy Pham are the primary targets.
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