MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

If you enjoyed Tuesday’s slate of MLB DFS action, I have very good news for you: We’re doing it all again tomorrow. With the same four-game slate coming back at us, it’s a short turnaround for the 2 p.m. lock, and we have a lot of ground to cover. The Yankees and Astros will be taking the home team roles in their respective Game 3’s, though the park factors won’t change given the continued use of neutral sites. The Padres made a late pitching change and appear to have Zach Davies scheduled for tomorrow, so if you’d like a bonus take for the slate, just refer back to Monday night’s Quick Hits for a full write-up on the Dodgers against him. We’ll find some new options for this space tonight and in Stack Slants in the morning.

With the Rays and Yankees hitting several home runs — including one by Giancarlo Stanton that is currently somewhere over Kansas — and the Braves going off early in the day, it was a big slate for power. Despite what some announcers would have us believe about the nature of playoff baseball, these teams are still very much playing the 2020 version of the game and building for power. With teams getting deeper into their rotations, we’re seeing increased run totals for tomorrow, and we should get a relatively high-scoring slate.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna – 7.10

Houston Astros: Carlos Correa – 5.78

Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger – 6.61

Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson – 8.39

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge – 12.46

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 11.30

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. – 11.15

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows – 8.20

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros – Athletics – 9-1-2-4-5 – Murphy – La Stella – Semien – Canha – Olson

The A’s draw Astros’ starter Jose Urquidy for tomorrow’s tilt as Houston looks to complete the three-game sweep and advance to the ALCS. Urquidy is not yet a high-caliber pitcher, though he was ranked as the Astros’ No. 2 overall prospect coming into the season. The right-handed starter threw 29.2 innings over five starts in 2020, putting up a 5.36 xFIP to his crisp 2.73 ERA, suggesting luck and defense had a great deal to do with any quality on display. The fact that he was the beneficiary of just a .209 BABIP against and struck out only 14.7% of hitters backs this up further.

The Athletics have a talented lineup with underrated quality nearly top to bottom. Against right-handed pitching in 2020, the active roster had a .176 ISO and a WRC+ 4% above average. They hit 60 home runs in the split, 11th best in the league, and put up a .226/.326/.404 slash as a team. Individually we can pick off better upside hitter by hitter.

The lineup kicks off with second baseman Tommy La Stella, who has third base eligibility on DraftKings and costs $4,700. On FanDuel where he costs just $3,000 LaStella is at a generous discount. The infielder was imported from Anaheim for this circumstance, providing left-handed quality and on-base skills to set the table for the power coming behind him against right-handed pitching. In 169 plate appearances in the split this season, La Stella put up a .303/.393/.510 slash with a .207 ISO and a WRC+ 51% above average. He’s an excellent option and should be heavily owned on FanDuel in particular.

Marcus Semien slots in at shortstop and costs just $4,100 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, where this entire team is inexpensive. Semien was not the player he was in 2019 when we saw him hit 33 home runs in his 747 plate appearances. The shortstop managed just seven in 236 opportunities this year, adding four stolen bases and putting up a WRC+ 9% below average. His struggles against same-handed pitching ran deep; he put up just a .117 ISO and a WRC+ 16% below average in the split. Dropping 2019 back into the sample drives those numbers all the way to a .209 ISO and a WRC+ 21% above average, however, that’s how good Semien was against righties just last year. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Semien has enough proven talent to be an easily justifiable play at these prices and what should be reduced popularity on a short slate.

Jake Lamb is hitting third in the projected lineup and has only slightly better odds of getting a hit than I do. The left-handed masher is allegedly a three-true-outcomes hitter, though his walk rate and ISO should be higher for that to actually be true anymore. Getting by on a reputation earned in 2016 and 2017 where he hit 59 home runs in a two-year span for the Diamondbacks, Lamb’s act is getting old fast. In 2020 he managed just a .193/.283/.352 slash with seven home runs and a .159 ISO. In 2019 he was at .193/.323/.353 with only slightly higher slash numbers the season before. If you roster Lamb for $3,200 on DraftKings or $2,500 on FanDuel, you’re doing it knowing that you’re basically getting a home run or a zero. He grades out as just an average option in my home run model tomorrow. I’m happy to look elsewhere for my power and would prefer to slot La Stella in at third base if I have a better option at second from another team. The A’s analytics department does seem to at least understand that hitting Lamb third is the logical spot for an all-power, no-contact hitter, regardless of traditional baseball-think on the spot in the lineup.

Mark Canha and Matt Olson provide plenty of quality in the two big RBI spots in this lineup, and they cost just a combined $8,600 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel. Canha was at .246/.387/.408 on the season while Olson put up just a .195/.310/.424 slash, though the big lefty hit 14 home runs in 245 plate appearances on his way to that bumpy slash. Canha’s excellent on-base skills and decent pop drove him to a WRC+ 27% above average and helped elevate Olson to a mark 3% above average despite his home run-or-bust contribution style. Against right-handed pitching, Olson had a .242 ISO with a WRC+ 5% above average, though those numbers go way up if we include 2019.

Khris Davis is showing signs of life and seemingly is finally truly over the long recovery from the hand issue that sapped his power in 2019 and most of 2020. The formerly highly reliable home run hitter has as many long balls in 12 plate appearances in the 2020 playoffs as he did all season: Two. Davis hit more than 40 for three straight seasons coming into 2019 before the fluky injury. He’s back and should be included in A’s stacks.

Robbie Grossman is an often overlooked outfielder who hits from both sides of the plate, costs just $3,300 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel, and had a solid season against right-handed pitching. In 168 plate appearances in the split, Grossman managed a .260 ISO with a WRC+ 40% above average with a .260/.357/.521 slash and all eight of his home runs. He even added eight stolen bases on the year for good measure. If the public isn’t on Grossman, I’m happy to get there.

Ramon Laureano will likely be the more popular option in the A’s outfield from late in this lineup. The power and speed contributor managed just a .213/.338/.366 slash with six home runs and two stolen bases. On FanDuel, where he costs just $2,800, Laureano can make it into my lineups, though I’m not sure I care to pay $600 more for him than Grossman on DraftKings.

Sean Murphy is a catcher we’ve touched on several times recently. He’s providing high-end upside at an ownership discount on most slates and could do the same tomorrow. He costs just $3,700 on DraftKings, putting him firmly in play. Murphy is a highly touted rookie who had 60-grade raw power ratings in traditional scouting and has done nothing to make us doubt them so far, hitting 11 home runs in his first 200 major league plate appearances and two in these playoffs. I’m happy to play the short-slate ownership game at catcher where I’m required to include one. Here’s hoping the public isn’t on Murphy too heavily so we can be.

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros – Astros – 8-1-2-4-5 – Reddick – Springer – Altuve – Bregman – Tucker (or Correa here)

I am not quite done with this game yet. While I’m not exactly expecting fireworks, the teams combine for one of the higher overall totals on the four-game slate, and the Astros always profile well against left-handed pitching, even when that pitcher is as talented as young Jesus Luzardo. The lefty is one of the big-time up and coming young starters in the game and should have a dynamite career ahead of him. In 2020 he was sharp, putting up a 3.88 xFIP to a 4.12 ERA in his 59.0 innings along with a 23.8% strikeout rate and just a 6.9% walk rate. His stuff and minor league track record suggest that there is upside to come, though he does need to reign in the home run balls somewhat, allowing nine in his limited set of innings for a 1.37 HR/9. Luzardo’s calling card is his lethal curveball that generates a ton of swing and miss and led to 20 of his 51 strikeouts. The lefty also features a changeup that is brutal on right-handed hitters and struck out another 16 this season.

The Astros active roster ranked just 18th in baseball with a .171 ISO, and they had a WRC+ 6% below average in 2020 against left-handed pitching. The team’s quality in the split reveals itself if we extend to a bigger sample, however. Going to the start of last season, the Astros are second in baseball with a .220 ISO and a WRC+ 24% above average. The team is excellent in the split.

With the team mostly healthy and somewhat back to normal, the Astros have been on fire early in the playoffs and are threatening to quickly advance to the next round. The team is loaded basically from top to bottom. They lead things off with All-Star outfielder George Springer, who had a .265/.359/.540 slash with a .275 ISO and a WRC+ 46% above average overall in 2020. He had a .271 ISO and a WRC+ 18% above average against left-handed pitching while striking out just 19.6% of the time and walking 10.7%. Springer hit 14 home runs out of the leadoff spot and is one of the best MLB DFS options every day of the year.

Jose Altuve struggled mightily through 2020, finishing the year at just .219/.286/.344 with five home runs and a WRC+ 23% below average. The second baseman was lost against lefties, with just a .083 ISO and a WRC+ 53% below average. Altuve is at a cheap-for-him $4,200 on DraftKings and just $3,300 on FanDuel, if we roster him it’s entirely based on his track-record with a blind eye to recent performance and a deaf ear to whatever that metallic banging sound coming from the Astros dugout could be.

Michael Brantley hits from the left side of the plate and struggled against same-handed pitching in 2020. He put up just a .135 ISO this year and a career .098 mark. Despite the power outage in the split he does manage to get to a WRC+ just 6% below average. The argument for playing Brantley tomorrow for me is based around his $3,500 price on DraftKings, $3,100 on FanDuel and the notion that he’ll likely see plate appearances against the bullpen if the team chases Luzardo early.

Alex Bregman is a superstar third baseman who mashes from the right side of the plate. In 2020 Bregman had a .242/.350/.451 slash with a WRC+ 22% above average this season. Against lefties since the start of last year, Bregman has an outrageous .362 ISO and a WRC+ 97% above average.

Rookie outfielder Kyle Tucker is a player we’ve featured recently. He hits from the left side of the plate, but so far in his young career he’s done well handling same-handed pitching. Tucker has a .252/.310/.458 slash with a WRC+ 9% above average and a .206 ISO in his 116 plate appearances in the split, striking out just 18.1% of the time. He could be an excellent sneaky option tomorrow if people overlook him for handedness.

Carlos Correa‘s power seems to be returning in recent weeks. The shortstop has regained some footing and costs $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel. Hitting sixth in the lineup, he should see opportunities to drive the ball and put up some fantasy points with runners on base. Correa has a .183 ISO and a WRC+ 38% above average since the start of 2019 against left-handed pitching. He makes a fine option at shortstop.

First baseman Yuli Gurriel is at a discount with just a $3,200 price on DraftKings and a $2,500 tag on FanDuel. The slugger had just a .232/.274/.384 slash in 2020 with six home runs and a WRC+ 21% below average. Against lefties since the start of 2019, however, Gurriel has a .255/.321/.505 slash with a .250 ISO, 11 home runs and a WRC+ 18% above average.

Outfielder Josh Reddick is another lefty bat who handles same-handed pitching well. Reddick hasa .171 ISO and a WRC+ 19% above average against southpaws going back to the beginning of last season. At the bare minimum $2,000 on DraftKings, I feel like someone mistyped his price; that’s a prime opportunity on this slate. At $2,400 on FanDuel he’s in a good spot as well. Martin Maldonado is a quality option in the catcher spot and doesn’t cost much on either site. I would likely only run him out in limited shares anywhere I’m not required to play a catcher, but where we have to he’s firmly in play. Maldonado hit six home runs in 2020 and has six in just 167 plate appearances against lefties since the start of 2019.

HR Call: Matt Olson (Athletics)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.