MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

The afternoon slate was a fun one on both sites. We saw the Braves, Blue Jays and Tigers all score 10, only to be outdone by the Mets, who put up a big 14-run total that was bolstered by the arrival of Pete Alonso to the 2020 season. The first baseman’s two-homer game was his biggest of the season and could be a sign of big things to come for an already top-notch Mets offense.

The slates for Labor Day are broken into a three-game afternoon and a six-game evening main slate. The home run picks include both, while the stacks focus just on the main slate from both sites. There are several good pitchers going tomorrow and some very interesting price points. Jason Floyd and I broke down the slate in full on the Early Bird Pod, so check that out for a bit more of a broad preview.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun – 8.55

Atlanta Braves: n/a

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: n/a

Chicago Cubs: n/a

Chicago White Sox: n/a

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor – 12.24

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story – 7.37

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera – 8.08

Houston Astros: George Springer – 6.62

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler – 7.01

Los Angeles Angels: n/a

Los Angeles Dodgers: n/a

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: n/a

Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz – 22.65

New York Mets: Michael Conforto – 3.47

New York Yankees: Luke Voit – 9.49

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 14.95

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins – 5.16

Pittsburgh Pirates: n/a

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. – 7.37

San Francisco Giants: Evan Longoria – 6.23

Seattle Mariners: n/a

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe – 7.10

Texas Rangers: n/a

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk – 8.22

Washington Nationals: Trea Turner – 6.87

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics – Athletics – 1-5 – Semien – La Stella – Chapman – Canha – Olson

The Astros are in Oakland with Cristian Javier on the mound. The rookie has been pitching well so far this season. His sub-1.00 WHIP demonstrates his ability to limit opportunities for the opposing offense, and he has a 23.4% strikeout rate on the season. The right-hander is a fly ball pitcher with a slider as his primary out pitch. The opposing A’s are 11th in baseball with a .180 ISO and a WRC+ 5% above average against right-handed pitching, but they strike out at a 25.7% rate that is fifth worst in the league in the split. Still, the active roster has a .253/.333/.449 slash with 350 home runs in the split since the start of 2018 along with a .196 ISO and a WRC+ 12% above average. This is a team that typically hits right-handed pitching well and hits it for power.

The biggest threat in the lineup is the lefty bat wielded by Matt Olson a player who does a ton for MLB DFS purposes. Olson is carrying a .186/.318/.450 slash on the season that is being tanked by a .182 BABIP so far. The slugger has still mashed 10 home runs in his 154 plate appearances and has a tremendous .264 ISO with a WRC+ 10% above average. Imagine if he were hitting anywhere near the Mendoza line.

Matt Chapman is the other big bat for the Athletics. The right-handed third baseman has a tremendous amount of power and costs just $3,400 on FanDuel. His $5,100 on DraftKings is far more difficult to accommodate, but the hitter is worth the price. His .236/.280/.543 slash belies the hitter he truly is, which is more represented by the 10 home runs, the .307 ISO and the WRC+ 18% above average. When Chapman connects he makes extremely hard contact and is a linchpin in the A’s offense.

Chapman hit behind Marcus Semien and Tommy La Stella in the new construction of this lineup. La Stella brings an excellent on-base tool to the order and should be a great option setting the table in front of the big RBI bats. Semien was a terrific on-base option in 2019 as well, though he did everything well last year. So far this season, the shortstop is at just .229/.285/.379 with five home runs, a .150 ISO and a WRC+ 17% below average. Each bat costs $4,600 on DraftKings, but Semien is at a gigantic discount on FanDuel at just $2,800.

Mark Canha is priced equally to Chapman on the DraftKings slate. Canha hit 26 home runs in 497 plate appearances in 2019 but has hit just three so far in 150 opportunities this year. His on-base percentage of .407 offers plenty of appeal hitting in front of Olson, however, and the pair are an interesting combination in the heart of this order.

Robbie Grossman and Stephen Piscotty are two outfielders that I continually drop into the same paragraph, as they’re often hitting next to one another late in this lineup. Piscotty is the better hitter of the two. The right-handed bat has 32 home runs against same-handed pitching since the start of 2018 to go with a .192 ISO and a WRC+ 6% above average. Grossman hits from both sides of the plate as a lefty against right-handed pitching he has a .127 ISO and a WRC+ exactly at league average since the outset of the 2018 season.

Ramon Laureano could be a fantastic target late in this lineup. The speed and power blend that the player has shown is very real. In 481 plate appearances in 2019, Laureano hit 24 home runs and swiped 13 bases. He works well as a wraparound option, serving as a secondary leadoff hitter for the early part of this lineup. The hard-hitting catcher Sean Murphy is another late-lineup option that we’ve discussed in this space recently. Murphy hits the ball very hard when he makes contact, which he’s struggling with, hitting just .208/.321/.333 so far. As a catcher he could be an interesting option on DraftKings, depending on his ownership.

Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals – 1-2-3-4-6 – Robles – Turner – Kendrick – Cabrera – Eaton

The Rays are in D.C. with Charlie Morton taking the ball off the top. Morton is just returning from injury, only throwing two innings his last outing and is expected to be limited to three or four tomorrow. Before hitting the IL, Morton was struggling with diminished velocity and a lack of swing and miss stuff. He is at just a 22.1% strikeout rate for the season over his 16 innings, with a 4.78 xFIP and a 1.50 WHIP.

Looking at Morton’s stuff, I expected to see a diminished amount of spin on his fastball, but the opposite is true. He seems to be throwing it with more spin than ever, perhaps overthrowing in an effort to replace his lost velocity. It’s an interesting conundrum for an aging pitcher who didn’t find himself until late in his career. In a real season, Morton’s adapting to the new normal would be an interesting thing to watch. As it stands, we’ll have about three more weeks to find out. In this spot, I’m leaning into the bats in what should be a short start followed by a beleaguered bullpen that is about league average in most stats.

The Nationals are a team we’ve touched on here and there throughout the season, and they’ve delivered with a reasonable amount of reliability. The team has been without superstar Juan Soto, as the third-year player deals with some lingering elbow soreness, but we could see him back in the lineup tomorrow. I want him in most of my Nationals stacks if he’s playing. Over his 891 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since the start of 2018, Soto has a .279 ISO and a WRC+ 58% above average, while striking out 19.3% of the time and walking an absurd 18.1% of the time. His .294/.424/.574 slash over the split for that time frame puts Soto among the league’s elite.

Trea Turner has been on fire over the last 10 days and is a star player in his own right. The shortstop brings a blend of power and speed that is a dream for MLB DFS purposes. In his 1,018 plate appearances against right-handed starters since the start of 2018, Turner has 40 home runs and 59 stolen bases to go with his .349 on-base percentage and WRC+ 16% above average. Turner recently started hitting second in the order, making room for Victor Robles at the top of the lineup. This should afford Turner additional opportunities to rack up counting stats by driving in runs.

Robles is another dynamic hitter who was a top prospect coming into the league. He’s riding a .265/.336/.354 slash with two home runs and two stolen bases so far this season, but he swiped 28 bags in his 617 plate appearances in 2019 while also hitting 17 home runs. Robles remains a sneaky option at just $2,400 on FanDuel, and his $2,100 on DraftKings was a price I checked three times because it looked so wrong.

Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera are two excellent infield options in the middle of this lineup. While they aren’t gigantic home run hitters, both players have the ability to drive the ball and knock in runs when given the opportunity. Both players are currently 19% below average in WRC+ for the season, but at just $2,700 each on FanDuel, they make this stack snap together with ease while providing some proven quality, if not recent performance. The DraftKings pricing is a bit higher but easily affordable. Since the start of 2018, Cabrera has hit 35 home runs against right-handed pitching, while Kendrick has 14. Cabrera has a .197 ISO and a WRC+ 2% above average in the split over that span, while Kendrick is at .184 with a WRC+ 25% above average.

Kurt Suzuki is a catcher that comes up frequently as an option on DraftKings. His price is just $3,900, and he hits in a great RBI spot in this lineup. Suzuki hit 17 home runs and put up a .221 ISO over his 309 plate appearances in 2019, but is at just one homer and a .115 ISO over 89 opportunities this season. The catcher wields a big bat but should be easy enough to get away from if he’s exceedingly popular. Adam Eaton‘s lefty bat is another quality option from this part of the lineup. The veteran outfielder has made a career of being a mid-range power and speed option, though he’s scuffling a bit in 2020 at just .220/.277/.370 with one stolen base and three home runs. Still, if Soto is out, we’ll want this lefty bat in our lineup.

Carter Kieboom is back with the big club and will be winding down the end of this order along with Luis Garcia and Michael A. Taylor. Of the three, Kieboom probably offers the most upside and plays a premium position at third base. He costs just $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel. His early performance doesn’t inspire much confidence, he was hitting just .204 but did have a .362 on-base percentage over his first 69 plate appearances of the season. Taylor has hit four home runs so far this year but otherwise is at .190/.230/.448 in 61 plate appearances. Any of the three work as a late mix and match, but none would be a priority for me in lineup building.

HR Call: Matt Olson (A’s)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.