MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel

We have a night of MLB DFS action that was split differently on the various sites. DraftKings has a big 14-game affair starting at 6:30, while FanDuel and Yahoo are starting with just the 7:05 games. The DraftKings slate is more interesting with the added star pitchers going in the games in the 6:00 window. We’re going to pick from among the teams on the full DraftKings slate for this, but I’ll refer back to anything for the FanDuel slate.

Just on casual observation it appears that DraftKings is loosening up their hitter pricing for the final slates of the year to make things more “fun” or possibly just due to the volume of expensive quality pitching. I could be wrong overall, but several teams on the slate have highly underpriced hitters and are drawing some popularity. We have a few strong pay-up-to-be-contrarian options in the stacking department today, and that’s where we’re going to focus again.

MLB DFS Stack Slants | DraftKings + FanDuel | Sept. 23

New York Yankees – 9-1-2-3-5 – Frazier – LeMahieu – Judge – Stanton – Torres

The Yankees get a high-end matchup with Robbie Ray, who has struggled tremendously through 2020. The lefty has thrown 47.2 innings so far this season, he’s yielded 13 home runs. When he’s right, the starter is an objectively good strikeout option, though we always know we’re taking on some unpredictable wildness with that upside. For his career, Ray is at a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 10.9% walk rate. This season he’s striking out 27.2% of hitters but walking an absurd 17.7%. Ray’s swinging strike rate is at the lowest point in three years, and he’s carrying a 5.93 xFIP for the season. Fire away with Yankees bats.

The Bombers have the slate’s highest implied team total, and they hit lefty pitching well, with a .199 ISO and a WRC+ 3% above average for the season. Individually, some of the numbers in the split are gaudy. Leadoff man D.J. LeMahieu has a WRC+ 43% above average against lefties, for example. The best pure hitter in baseball, LeMahieu has a .356/.415/.598 slash on the season with 10 home runs, 39 runs scored and even threw in three stolen bases so far this year. There’s nothing to dislike about the second or third baseman on DraftKings tonight.

I’m acting as if Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will both be in the lineup tonight. The Yankees are juggling the stud hitters a bit, hoping to keep everyone in full health headed into the postseason. The duo own two of those gaudy numbers I mentioned. Going back to the start of last season due to some small samples this year, Stanton has a .375 ISO against lefties, with a WRC+ 95% above average. Judge is at “just” .339 in the ISO department with a WRC+ 94% above average. Those numbers are all higher in their limited opportunities this year. In 20 plate appearances against southpaws in 2020, Judge has a .474 ISO with three home runs and is 103% better creating runs than the average. Stanton’s ISO is at .400 with just one home run and he’s 121% better in the split over his gargantuan 14 plate appearance sample. Figure out a way to get them both in your lineups if you can. Stanton is the more popular with his discounted $4,700 price tag.

Luke Voit has just as much power in his bat as that duo. The Yankees lineup is an embarrassment of riches in the home run department, as you have no doubt noticed on recent highlight shows. Voit has hit 21 home runs this season, once again carrying the team for extended stretches while Judge and Stanton were on the mend. He costs $5,400 at first base and is coming at a big ownership discount compared to some of his teammates. Voit makes a great target in the middle of stacks and the Yankees lineup.

Gleyber Torres at $4,500 is still a steal, the shortstop is relatively popular, but not to an unplayable degree. He’s up to .262/.375/.402 on the season and has hit three home runs, down from his monster 38 home run season in 2019 but trending in the right direction. Torres would be a great bet for a monster second half of the season, if there were going to be a second half of the season. For now, settle for getting him into your MLB DFS lineups.

Aaron Hicks is both free and unpopular tonight. The switch-hitting outfielder isn’t drawing flies in the ownership department with his .225/.384/.411 slash as a somewhat forgotten piece of the puzzle for the Yankees. His $3,800 price tag is extremely friendly, and Hicks provides some sneaky value with his tremendous ability to work counts and get on base even when he’s struggling to make contact. Despite the lowly batting average, his .384 on-base percentage has kept his WRC+ afloat by 25% above average. Hicks is in play and is always an option to turn on one and put up a big score at low ownership.

The Yankees could stack the bottom of the order a few different ways depending on who’s in and out for today. I’d like to think Aaron Boone will go with Clint Frazier in the outfield against a lefty. If so, Frazier is one of my favorite options on the slate at just $4,700. I love him as a wraparound play back to the top of this order to buy us some additional run creation, power and speed, and he is perfectly functional as a cog in a stack if he’s hitting earlier in the lineup. So far this season Frazier has eight home runs in his 144 plate appearances with a .286/.403/.555 slash, a .269 ISO and a WRC+ 62% above average. He’s earning his job on this team with every plate appearance in 2020.

Don’t look now, but Gary Sanchez is up to .147 in the batting average department. A few more points and he’ll reach two-thirds of his weight. Sanchez is one of the best all-or-nothing bets in baseball on most slates. He’s either taking you for a 400-foot ride over the fence or he’s giving you a zero in your lineups. The power is very real in the catcher’s bat. He’s in the 88th percentile of average hard-hit rate and the 89th in average exit velocity. At limited popularity and a bit of a discount at $4,500, I can get to some Sanchez.

Gio Urshela is another player who is too unpopular for his upside, though this one makes more sense with the third baseman’s big $5,100 price tag. When you can slot LeMahieu into the position for only $400 more, it seems like a no-brainer. Urshela is a player I still don’t fully trust despite his impressive performance since arriving in New York last season. Prior to joining the Yankees he was a completely different hitter, but there’s no arguing with his .308/.377/.519 with six home runs and a WRC+ 43% above average this season or the .314/.355/.534 with 21 homers he put up in 2019. If he’s as unpopular as projected, I can definitely work some Urshela into these stacks.

Tampa Bay Rays – 8-1-2-3-4 – Kiermaier – Tsutsugo – Lowe – Arozarena – Lowe

The Rays are on both site’s main slates. You’re welcome, FanDuel players. On the DraftKings board they rank as the fourth-best stack and are going dramatically under-owned. On FanDuel they’re the second-rated stack for success, and they’re only drawing about two-thirds of their deserved ownership. The matchup against Michael Wacha is a good one despite this team missing two of its best lefty bats in Austin Meadows and Ji-Man Choi.

Wacha has yielded seven home runs in just 28.0 innings pitched in 2020. He’s carrying a 4.26 xFIP overall and his strikeout and swinging strike rate are actually up over previous seasons. Wacha appears to have changed up his pitch mix to a degree, trimming to basically a three-pitch arsenal with his four-seamer, changeup and cutter. The stuff has kept hitters off balance from a starter that had a pretty established book, but I’m skeptical about Wacha’s ability to sustain success with what is ultimately the same stuff, just in a different order. I saw no discernible mechanical or fundamental change to how the pitches function. On the right night we can exploit this pitcher with some sneaky bats.

The Rays still pack a punch in the split. Likely leadoff hitter Yoshi Tsutsugo has found his power stroke and is up to a .216 ISO against right-handed pitching. His WRC+ still sits 4% below average in the split, and he’s at just a .189/.300/.405 slash, but the power is real with his six home runs in 130 opportunities.

Brandon Lowe slots in at either second base or the outfield on DraftKings and costs $6,000 on this slate. The massive price tag has Lowe under-owned in a great spot, though it is admittedly difficult to pay a Mookie Betts price for Lowe. At $3,800 on FanDuel he’s explosively popular, as he should be. The lefty has a killer .256 ISO and a WRC+ 35% above average in the split this season. He brutalizes right-handed pitching and has eight home runs in just 152 plate appearances in the split.

Nate Lowe hits two spots later with a similarly productive lefty bat. The first baseman costs just $3,900 and is drawing no attention tonight on DraftKings. He’s more popular on the blue site at $2,900. In his 48 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, Lowe has a .341 ISO and a WRC+ 59% above average with four home runs.

Hitting in between should be Randy Arozarena, a right-handed outfielder who has been productive for the Rays over his 58 plate appearances overall in 2020. Arozarena has a .245/.345/.571 slash with five home runs and three stolen bases in his limited action, putting him firmly in play at just $3,600 in the middle of the Rays lineup. In 37 same-handed matchups this season, he’s carrying a .226 ISO and a WRC+ just 2% below average.

Willy Adames and Joey Wendle are not the most exciting names in MLB DFS, as evidenced by their sub-1% ownership on both sites tonight. The prices are buyer-friendly and help you build anything you want along with Rays stacks. Depending on where they hit in the lineup, the infielders are in play and can yield interesting constructions, with Wendle providing both second and third base eligibility. Adames is by far the better option. He’s quietly hit eight home runs in his 193 plate appearances this season, a year after hitting 20 in 584 opportunities last year.

Two dynamic outfielders should be providing some upside from the bottom of the lineup. Veteran Kevin Kiermaier brings some lefty lumber that is generally strong in the split, while younger Manuel Margot has a raw skill set with tantalizing power and speed, though it’s never fully coalesced for him. In 2019, Margot hit 12 home runs and stole 20 bases, Kiermaier hit 14 homers and stole 19 bases. Are we seeing the DFS value in these players at under 1% ownership and under $4,000 on DratKings? On FanDuel the prices are $2,600 for Margot and $2,700 for Kiermaier. Either makes a fine addition to your four-man stack.

Catcher Mike Zunino is another all-or-nothing slugger of a backstop. He’s at .121/.216/.348 on the year in his 74 plate appearances, but he has four home runs and a .227 ISO in the sample. Zunino handles same-handed pitching well for power. In 237 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since the start of 2017, the catcher has a .201 ISO, though his WRC+ is a lowly 41% below average. He hits ninth for a reason, after all.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.