MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel

Today is an interesting day in the stacks tool. Ownership started out looking appropriately distributed among some of the best options for MLB DFS, but in our most recent update a bit of room opened up. Since the start of the day, the Braves, who I wrote up in Quick Hits last night, have been drawing less ownership than their chance of being the top stack warrants. More ground has opened up, and I love the spot for that team again tonight. We have some solid value teams going at around level ownership as well, which presents an opportunity. Typically the big value squads go over-owned, and we have to hunt for our cost savings.

With a relatively small slate, it should be fun to find the creative angles into some of these stacks. The top of the standings board is going to be loaded with offense on what looks like a light day for pitching. With a few of the league’s lower-end teams going tonight and some friendly pricing, there is a ton of value on today’s board, which could lead to an interesting spread of constructions with some of these squads.

MLB DFS Stack Slants | DraftKings + FanDuel | Sept. 24

Detroit Tigers – 2-3-4-6-8 – Castro – Cabrera – Candelario – Goodrum – Cameron

The Tigers are ranked in the middle of the top stacks tool for their matchup with the Royals and starter Kris Bubic, and they’re drawing a huge value rating on DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re drawing level ownership on DraftKings, and they’re slightly under-owned on the blue site. On Yahoo they’re slightly less valuable and slightly more popular.

In his 45.1 innings in 2020, the rookie starter has a 4.51 xFIP and a 3.97 ERA. He’s been pitching relatively well for a kid who had not appeared above high-A ball previously. Bubic has struck out 22% of hitters at the major league level. His minor league numbers suggest the potential for growth in that department. He’s not going to get there by tonight, however. This Detroit team has quietly pounded on left-handed pitching all season. The Tigers active roster has a .192 ISO and a WRC+ 37% above average in the split this season.

The projected lineup has a litany of switch-hitters and right-handed bats. Bubic is not going to get a break with a same-handed matchup at any point. Starting up top with Victor Reyes, an outfielder who hits from both sides of the plate, we see the immediate value this team can provide. Reyes has a .280/.317/.402 slash on the year with a WRC+ 5% below average. Against lefties he has hit for basically no power in 2020 but holds a .343/.429/.371 slash with a WRC+ 29% above average. Reyes costs just $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel.

Willi Castro is not much more expensive at $3,400 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel, despite having the better numbers in a shorter sample. In his 129 plate appearances in 2020, Castro has a .339/.375/.534 slash with five home runs, a .195 ISO and a WRC+ 45% above average.

While he’s no longer the Miguel Cabrera some of us remember. Detroit’s slugging first baseman can still turn on one from time to time as he proved just last night with a two-home-run game. Cabrera has a .241/.326/.403 slash overall this year with nine home runs and a .162 ISO. In his 38 plate appearances against lefties this season, Cabrera’s WRC+ is a robust 81% above average, and he has a .375/.474/.531 slash but just one of his home runs. The $2,800 price tag on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel is frankly insulting to a player of Cabrera’s caliber, I’ll gladly take advantage and will be happy I’m not doing it entirely out of spite; this is a good spot.

Jeimer Candelario provides some protection for Cabrera with his .301/.373/.508 slash, .208 ISO and WRC+ 40% above average on the season. The first baseman is second in the projected lineup with seven home runs and he’s affordable across MLB DFS tonight. Candelario has a .263 ISO and a WRC+ 116% above average in his 42 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season. Dating to the start of 2019, those numbers become a more pedestrian .140 ISO and WRC+ 6% above average. Still, for the cost, there’s plenty of upside.

Jorge Bonifacio and Niko Goodrum are not my favorite hitters to roster and every time I say something like that, one of them goes off for a big night. Goodrum slots in at second base and shortstop on DraftKings and is a second baseman on FanDuel. He costs just $3,300 and $2,800 on those sites and flashes infrequent power while pulling down just a .175/.253/.336 slash and a .161 ISO. Against lefties since the start of 2019, however, Goodrum has a .206 ISO and a WRC+ 48% above average while reaching a .349/.396/.556 slash. This is very much a splits-dependent hitter in recent history, and he’s on the correct side of them in this matchup.

Bonifacio has a WRC+ 39% above average in his 32 plate appearances against lefties since the start of last season, but he provides very little power upside with just a .100 ISO. The outfielder is a right-handed mix-and-match option for just $2,500 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel. Another option who can bounce in and out of some of my Tigers stacks tonight is catcher Austin Romine.

I expect that DraftKings players will look for their catchers on teams that are not the Tigers and Romine could go under-owned for his $2,800 price tag and place in the last true RBI spot in the Tigers lineup. Romine has a pair of home runs and a WRC+ 49% below average for 2020, but since the start of last season he’s carrying a .161 ISO and a WRC+ 18% above average against lefties, which puts him in play.

The speed and power combo Daz Cameron can provide is real. We’ll see it eventually, I promise. It just might not flash this year. Ultimately, the rookie son of one-time underrated fantasy baseball asset Mike Cameron might need a bit more seasoning in the minors before he’s truly ready. For now, I expect him to be in lineups, inexpensive and under-owned. I can work with some Cameron from late in this lineup in both wraparound constructions and as a final piece of a mid-lineup stack, though I won’t get too attached to the notion of those lineups winning a GPP. We’re more likely to see a zero from Cameron than a 20.

Isaac Paredes hits from the right side of the plate and provides an option at third base for just $2,500 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel. Paredes has a .230/.280/.310 slash in his 93 plate appearances this season, his WRC+ is 2% below average in a whopping 14 plate appearances against lefties. This is a filler option, nothing more.

Houston Astros

The Astros are in Arlington for their matchup against Lance Lynn and the lowly Rangers. At the outset, the team was drawing more ownership than they are in the afternoon update of the top stacks tool, where a bit of wiggle room has opened up. They rank fifth overall on the DraftKings board. On FanDuel they also rank fifth but are pulling more level ownership. Of the top teams, they have the most difficult matchup against Lynn.

In his 78.1 innings this year, Lynn has a 4.27 xFIP to his 2.53 ERA, suggesting he’s gotten the benefit of some luck and some good defense overall, but he’s pitching well even under the surface. His 26.8% strikeout rate and 11.4% swinging strike rate are both above average, and he has been efficient with limiting power. Lynn also typically will pitch deep into games for his team, limiting the opportunities the Astros will see against the Rangers bullpen unless they chase him with runs.

The Astros pack a punch in their lineup from at least one through seven on most nights. Any team that starts with an All-Star like George Springer in the leadoff spot is doing something right. The outfielder is going under-owned at just 6.3% on DraftKings tonight, though he’s the most expensive bat on this team at $5,400. His $3,900 on FanDuel is too low. Springer has hit 13 home runs on the season and has a .264 ISO with a WRC+ 37% above average. He gets on base at a .348 clip to set the table for hitters behind him and is a key cog in the Astros stack. Pay up to be contrarian and put Springer in your lineups.

2020 has been rough on Jose Altuve. He’s carrying a .257 BABIP along with a career-high 19.7% strikeout rate and a total lack of power at just a .096 ISO. Karma can be cruel. I’m still willing to believe in the true caliber of the second baseman’s bat, however. There’s simply too much history built into Altuve’s numbers to completely abandon him here, though the MLB DFS public seems to agree with his ownership share going above 15%. He’s at a discounted $4,800 on DraftKings and a reasonable $3,100 on FanDuel hitting second in the Astros lineup.

Michael Brantley should be able to take advantage of being on the good side of his splits. The outfielder has a WRC+ 65% above average against right-handed pitching this season, with a .336/.407/.545 slash, a .209 ISO and four home runs in the split. He’s ably joined on the left side of the plate by Kyle Tucker, who is at .300/.357/.577 with five home runs, a .277 ISO, a WRC+ 50% above average and even seven stolen bases in the split.

Hitting between the pair of lefty outfielders will be superstar third baseman Alex Bregman. This lineup is just loaded with talent. Bregman hits from the right side of the plate and has been scuffling through 2020’s 161 plate appearances at just .241/.354/.409 with four home runs and a .168 ISO. Since the start of 2019, Bregman has a .236 ISO and a WRC+ 44% above average in same-handed matchups. I’m happy to play the history for just $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel.

Yuli Gurriel and Carlos Correa bring right-handed bats to the dish from the infield. Correa slots in at shortstop for $4,800 on DraftKings and a huge discount at just $2,800 on FanDuel. In his 211 plate appearances in 2020, the infielder has just four home runs and a disappointing .110 ISO with a WRC+ 8% below average. However, in his 389 plate appearances against same-handed pitching, dating back to the start of last season, Correa has a .236 ISO and a WRC+ 19% above average. That’s the hitter I know, that’s the hitter I’ll take the shot on in Astros stacks.

Gurriel provides similar upside in same-handed matchups with his .210 ISO and WRC+ 19% above average in the same sample. The first baseman costs just $3,500 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel and has six home runs and a .163 ISO overall this season.

Josh Reddick is the last of the team’s lefty outfielders likely to be in the starting lineup. Reddick costs just $2,900 on DraftKings and is going basically untouched. He has largely struggled against right-handed pitching over the past year-plus, with a .118 ISO and a WRC+ 18% below average. His .306 on-base percentage is a bit of a warning sign that Reddick is more likely to give us a zero here than a GPP winning score. He’s a mix-and-match option for me at best.

Martin Maldonado is a $4,300 catcher on DraftKings and costs just $2,900 on FanDuel. Hitting ninth will take away from his overall value, but there is a bit of power upside in the bat, and no one is rostering him tonight. Maldonado has just a .218/.346/.383 slash, but he has hit six home runs in his 161 plate appearances this year. He’s generally not good in the split, however, with a .187/.303/.357 slash and a .157 ISO since the start of last season. Take him or leave him as needed from a salary, popularity and positioning perspective.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.