MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel

The stacks board on the last MLB DFS Friday of the regular season is looking very interesting so far. Most of the top teams are drawing less ownership than they should be, likely again for salary reasons with several good spend-up options at pitcher on the slate as well. This should be creating some opportunities if we can figure out the right way to thread the needle.

They’re difficult to pay up to and I’m not sure you could do anything to stack them together and get anyone other than me as your pitcher, but the Yankees and Braves are both going under-owned from the top of the board. We’ve talked about both teams plenty of times in this space through the season. We should know who the big plays on both teams are at this point. Fire away with both barrels wherever possible tonight.

MLB DFS Stack Slants | DraftKings + FanDuel | Sept. 24

Los Angeles Dodgers – 6-7-8-1-2 – Pollock – Bellinger – Taylor – Betts – Seager

(You can get this suggested stack with three good Reds bats and still have money for two pitchers from the mid-tier, or play it with three one-offs or a two-man and a better pitcher, just as an example of how it is viable despite the massive overall price)

The Dodgers are in an interesting spot in their matchup with quality lefty Andrew Heaney. In his 62.2 innings in 2020, Heaney has a 3.89 xFIP and a 4.02 ERA to go with his 26.1% strikeout rate and juts a 6.6% walk rate. The pitcher is highly effective with his three-pitch mix that includes a fastball, curveball and a changeup. He keeps hitters on their toes with his pitch mix and generates 12.8% swinging strikes, which is actually down from an impressive 14.1% last year.

The Dodgers are 18th in baseball with a .169 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Their WRC+ is 5% above average and they have relatively good strikeout and walk rates. If we extend the sample to the start of 2019, the Dodgers power comes back, jumping to a .198 team ISO in the split for the active roster. This is an excellent offense in a tricky spot that is getting ignored to too large a degree tonight.

The Dodgers throw one of the best players in the game at opposing pitching right off the top in their daily lineup. Mookie Betts costs a hefty $6,000 on DraftKings and $4,600 on FanDuel. Lefty pitching has actually been Betts’ kryptonite this season. In his 61 plate appearances, the superstar has just a .019 ISO with a WRC+ 54% below average, a .189/.295/.208 slash and a 24.6% strikeout rate. If we extend to the beginning of last season, Betts obviously improves but not as much as one would think. Since the start of last season, Betts has faced a lefty 258 times and is carrying a .251/.360/.397 slash with a .146 ISO and a WRC+ 1% below average. Through this prism, Betts becomes a $6,000 league-average hitter in the split over the past year-plus, though for his career he still carries a robust .213 ISO and WRC+ 33% above average against lefties. Ultimately, I’m willing to assume this is a year-long slump in the split, I won’t be adjusting exposure caps, but I also might not go out of my way to force Mookie into spots he isn’t fitting naturally.

Corey Seager has a .258 ISO and a WRC+ 45% above average in same-handed matchups this season. There’s no reason whatsoever to skip the shortstop for handedness here. He has four home runs and a .306/.353/.565 slash in the split this season while striking out just 16.2% of the time. Seager has been obliterating pitching all year long and has a .295 ISO overall on the season to go with his 15 home runs and .325/.374/.620 slash. The shortstop is one of the best at the position and is reachable at $5,600 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel.

Third baseman Justin Turner brings his excellent right-handed bat to the three spot in this lineup. Turner is carrying a .303/.398/.423 slash this season in his 166 plate appearances. Against lefties, Turner has a career .181 ISO and WRC+ 25% above average. At just $4,900 on DraftKings and a ridiculous $3,100 on FanDuel, Turner is a key cog in the Dodgers machine tonight, do not leave him out of too many of your stacks.

Max Muncy and Will Smith bring some pop to the middle of the lineup hitting ahead of two arguably better players for MLB DFS that we’ll get to in a moment. Muncy hits on the left side of the plate and costs $5,100 on DraftKings but just $3,600 on FanDuel. He’s flexible with first and third base eligibility on the site that lets you do that sort of thing. He’s also carrying a bumpy .189/.326/.393 slash and is exactly league-average at creating runs on the season. Against lefties, Muncy is at .219/.342/.422 with a .203 ISO and is 13% above average creating runs. He’s in play despite the same-handed matchup. Smith is always an intriguing catcher play with the power he brings behind the dish. In his 101 plate appearances against lefties since the start of 2019, Smith has a .182 ISO with a WRC+ just 1% below average, though he has struck out nearly 30% of the time. I can take or leave the backstop with this production at the price.

The two hitters who interest me more are A.J. Pollock and Cody Bellinger. Neither hitter is drawing ownership on either site. This is wrong. Pollock has a .263/.302/.522 slash on the year with 13 home runs and a .258 ISO. Against left-handed pitching since the start of 2019 the outfielder is second on the team with a .253 ISO and has a WRC+ 40% above average. He strikes out just 19% of the time against lefties and has a .320/.356/.573 slash with 10 home runs in the sample.

Bellinger is at the same level of quality since the start of last year. He’s hit 21 home runs against lefties and has a .265/.367/.538 slash with a .273 ISO and a WRC+ 36% above average. We’re paying a premium for two hitters late in the lineup if they’re hitting sixth and seventh as projected, but I can’t think of a better pair of hitters on which to take that chance.

Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez should be bringing up the end of this lineup. The two right-handed hitters have position flexibility at both second base and outfield and can provide some interesting looks at this team. Taylor costs $4,600 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel, Hernandez is at $4,000 and $2,600 and is the better bargain here. (This is the least analytical thing I’ve ever said in this space and it should be taken as such, but wouldn’t it be just like Hernandez to break one of the last slates of the year?). Taylor is the better of the two players. Since the start of 2019, he has a .237 ISO with a WRC+ 15% above average against lefties. He is a great option to mix into the back end of some stacks. You can even build effectively with three of the last four hitters in this lineup as a three-man play.

Cincinnati Reds – 3-7 – Votto – Suarez – Moustakas – Winker – Senzel

The Reds are in an interesting spot. They don’t rank particularly high on the top stacks board in their matchup against Jose Berrios and they’re drawing appropriate or slightly too much ownership on both sites. So how did they end up here? Looking down the value column, the Reds are by far the best lineup that provides the sort of value needed to get to some of the overwhelmingly expensive stacks like the Dodgers above or the Yankees and Braves as full five-mans. The Tigers are drawing a huge value rating and are certainly in play in that capacity, but that’s what everyone is going to be building with, which is not our goal.

The Reds are drawing a 4.3 implied team total and that’s enough for us to work with on this slate. Berrios is pitching well overall this year with a 4.31 xFIP to his 3.72 ERA indicating that there’s a tiny bit of luck and defense baked in. His 11.8% swinging strike rate is up from last season’s 10.8% rate and his overall strikeouts have jumped from 23.2% for his career to 24.5% in his 58.0 innings in 2020. Still, the Reds have a lineup that is 6th best in baseball with a .206 ISO against right-handed pitching and they walk 12.4% of the time, creating opportunities for their power to come through.

The Reds lineup is confirmed, we have Shogo Akiyama leading off with his lefty bat that has produced a .234/.355/.283 slash so far this season. Akiyama has somewhat righted the ship for his season with his ability to get on base and his six stolen bases justifying some of this spot in the lineup, at just $2,500 we can work with the outfielder off the top ahead of more productive hitters.

Nick Castellanos costs just $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel. He’s hitting just .226 this year with a .299/.500 back end of his slash but he has 14 home runs and a .274 ISO overall with a WRC+ 6% above average. Against right-handed pitching Castellanos has a .228 ISO and a WRC+ 7% above average since the start of 2019.

Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Mike Moustakas are a trio of bats that I’m always happy to build into my Reds stacks. Votto’s eye and discerning bat are keeping him afloat and the power is back a bit. His 11 home runs in 209 plate appearances are solid, the first baseman has a WRC+ 14% above average on the season. Suarez brings a ton of power to the plate and is up to 15 home runs this year after hitting 49 a season ago. Since the start of 2019 the third baseman’s ISO in same-handed matchups is .294 and he has a WRC+ 24% above average with 49 home runs. Get him in your Reds stacks at a ludicrous $3,400 price on DraftKings that actually matches his price on FanDuel.

Moustakas is a big lefty power hitter with just six home runs this season. In 150 plate appearances we expect a bit more from Moustakas, but overall his .213 ISO and WRC+ 7% above average are more than enough to justify his $4,300 price, particularly when factoring in the low cost of bats around him.

Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel are two young bats who will power this offense for the next handful of years. Winker was on fire for the early part of the season and sits at .259/.385/.552 with 12 home runs, a .294 ISO and a WRC+ 47% above average. Senzel is on the other side of the spectrum with his small-sample special of a season at just .190/.257/.381 in his 71 plate appearances. Senzel is a special talent and there is a ton of production coming from this bat. While it might not arrive in time for tonight’s game, the outfielder costs just $2,400 on both sites. He’s very much in play for me with the combination of hit, power and speed tools that he delivers.

Freddy Galvis is a less appealing option that no one really likes to roster. At $3,100 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel I’d usually rather get to better players, but you can make room for Galvis as a low-owned mix and match option who provides infrequent power at either second base or shortstop.

Catcher Tucker Barnhart is in play for me today hitting ninth in this lineup. He’s drawing a bit of attention at his $2,100 price on DraftKings. In his 104 plate appearances in 2020, the backstop has hit five home runs and is a productive MLB DFS play when priced like he is. Since the start of 2019, Barnhart has a hit 16 home runs against lefty pitching and has a .246/.337/.428 slash with a .182 ISO and a WRC+ just 4% below average, spectacular numbers for a nearly minimum priced catcher.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.