Monday’s MLB DFS slate was a reminder of the power of true ace pitching, with Tyler Glasnow running off and hiding from the field with a monster score. A few of the also-ran options hit the board hard as well, however, putting some of their lineups in play on bats that Glasnow owners were unable to reach. The action today should be somewhat more predictable on the pitching side, with a slate full of solid options and far lower game totals because of it.
The main slate kicks off at 7:07 p.m. ET on both sites. The Awesemo team will be here for all of it, providing updates to tools and data throughout, including the Strategy Show, which you can find on YouTube. Speaking of tools, if you aren’t visiting the Top Stacks Tool regularly, you’re just making your MLB DFS picks incorrectly. The Top Starters Tool is every bit as important in deciding who takes the hill for your daily fantasy baseball lineup.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home Run Ratings
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 4.36
Chicago Cubs: Joc Pederson — 8.47
Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada — 4.41
Cincinnati Reds: Nicholas Castellanos — 8.46
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 8.10
Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 8.80
Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario — 13.02
Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 12.71
Kansas City Royals: Andrew Benintendi — 2.77
Los Angeles Angels: Albert Pujols — 8.73
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 7.55
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 2.15
Milwaukee Brewers: Travis Shaw — 7.39
New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez — 12.11
San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 3.50
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 11.17
Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 10.02
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 7.28
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 10.57
Washington Nationals: Kyle Schwarber — 11.25
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MLB DFS Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
(Quick note: if it says 1-5, it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5. Otherwise, I will specify spots)
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
There is a wealth of pitching options on today’s slate when comparing to the meager offerings of yesterday. With several aces going for their teams, there are several very obvious spots that the field should land on. These include Trevor Bauer at home against the Rockies, a team that has been terrible both on the road and against right-handed pitching over the past two seasons. Bauer should stand to post a monster number if all things go according to plan, but he and Shane Bieber rank in their own salary tier for this one, and Bauer has the better matchup with Bieber taking on the White Sox lineup. The pitchers rank in the top two spots on the top starters tool, but forced to make a decision with only seconds to save the city, it would be Bauer in this coin flip; bats will provide differentiation.
Fortunately, the slate offers a number of other high-end options with more affordable price tags and strong matchups. Reds ace Luis Castillo is taking on the Giants lineup that ranks 22nd in ISO against right-handed pitching over the past two seasons, but it stands fifth with a 21.5% strikeout rate in the split and has created runs 3% above average. The spot is somewhat tricky, but Castillo is an exceptional pitcher and a proven ace at an extreme discount compared to his peers. Castillo struck out 30.5% of hitters he faced in 2020 and 28.9% of hitters across 190 innings in 2019. For just $8,400 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings, Castillo is mispriced.
On the other side of the same game, Giants starter Kevin Gausman is another highly projected and highly rated pitcher on the Top Starters Tool. He has seen significant growth since departing Baltimore, putting up a stellar 32.2% strikeout rate in his 59 innings in 2020, and he looks to make another leap this season with a changed arsenal and in a far better home park than he was earlier in his career. Gausman has a tougher matchup, though the Reds active roster ranks just 22nd with a 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of 2019.
With Stephen Strasburg, Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried and Dylan Bundy on the board, there are almost too many good pitching options from which to choose today. Spreading ownership around to leverage against the public while getting to good bats with quality starters at a discount seems to be the best approach, but rostering a significant share of the top pitcher on the board still stands out for its overall upside; Bauer is simply more likely to put up the best start of the night.
Down the Line Chalk
The Dodgers lineup is in a terrific spot, backing up their ace starter with what should be a boatload of runs against right-handed starter Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela had just a 13.5% strikeout rate last season, with a 4.82 xFIP and 1.21 WHIP in his 73 innings. The year before he posted a 13.2% rate with a 5.44 xFIP and an outrageously bad 1.75 WHIP. There is significant opportunity for the loaded Dodgers lineup to smash here. They will be popular and expensive but worth getting to where possible.
Consider this the daily update that the Yankees lineup is projected to be under-owned again. They will be popular on the slate, but not enough to align with their projected probability of being one of the top stacks. The team is taking on tough lefty starter Hyun Jin Ryu, but the heavily right-handed team does well in the split and has power for days. When they are under-owned it typically makes sense to get to this lineup.
Meanwhile, the Astros will be taking on gas can Matthew Boyd, a southpaw whose favorite hobby the last two years has been giving up long home runs. The Astros bring a ton of pop to the matchup; their lineup is loaded from Jose Altuve at the top through Kyle Tucker in the seven spot. Mixing in speedster Myles Straw for a little speed as a wraparound option is even in play in this one. The team will also be popular, but the Top Stacks Tool is saying there is room for more.
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KC — 1-5 — Merrifield — Benintendi — Perez — Santana — Soler
Looking down the board for a little leverage and value, the Royals stand out slightly despite a tough matchup against improved right-hander Dylan Bundy. Bundy was very good last year, putting up a 27.0% strikeout rate and a 3.75 xFIP with a 1.04 WHIP, but he has had a bumpy climb to his current level, and there is always the possibility of regression when looking at just a 65-inning sample. The Royals have solid top-six options in their lineup, mixing a solid blend of speed, hit tool and power, and they could be the right type of team to get to a pitcher like Bundy. They do not project explosively toward the top of the stacks board, but they will not be overly popular, with their overall ownership trailing the probability they will be a top stack.
The projected lineup starts with Whit Merrifield, who sets the tone for this batting order early. Merrifield brings a highly Royals-like blend of hitting talent, speed and mid-range power to the plate. Last season he hit nine home runs and stole 12 bases in his 265 plate appearances, putting up a .282/.325/.440 slash. He created runs 6% better than average last season, down from 10% better the year before. That season, Merrifield saw 735 plate appearances, putting up a .302/.348/.463 slash. Merrifield brings multi-position eligibility and talent to the lineup for a fair price.
Newly arrived from the Red Sox, outfielder Andrew Benintendi has a very similar skillset. He had an atrocious 52-plate-appearance stint before going down with injury last season, but the year before he went .266/.343/.431 with 13 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 615 plate appearances. Benintendi has 20-20 power and speed; he needs to harness his abilities and stay on the field, but he should have every opportunity in Kansas City’s freewheeling offense.
One of the best offensive catchers in baseball throughout his career, Salvador Perez stands out in the middle of the lineup. His pricing on FanDuel, as that of most of the Royals, is simply too low. He missed all of 2019 but came roaring back in the short 2020 season, smashing 11 home runs in just 156 plate appearances. Perez put up a killer .333/.353/.633 slash with a .300 ISO and created runs 62% better than average. There is a lot to love about Perez at these prices. He should be a major part of all Royals stacks and makes for a good one-off where catchers are required.
Carlos Santana joins the Royals after several seasons in Cleveland. He hits from both sides of the plate and has flashed plenty of power over the years, though he does not have the hit tool or speed of his other teammates. Last season was interesting for Santana at the plate; he managed to hit eight home runs in his 255 opportunities and got on base at a respectable .349 clip, but he had just a .199 average and .350 slugging percentage on the other sides of his triple-slash, and his ISO was just a .150. The year before, Santana hit 34 home runs in 686 plate appearances while going .281/.397/.515 with a .234 ISO, creating runs 35% better than average. That is the hitter to look for when including him in Royals stacks.
Jorge Soler has monstrous power. He obliterated 48 of them in his 679 plate appearances in 2019, adding another eight homers to the career total in just 174 plate appearances in a down and shortened season in 2020. Soler truly broke out with his prodigious power, and he has a strong opportunity in this matchup, though he has a ridiculously high strikeout rate and stands an equal chance of putting up a “golden sombrero” night as well.
Hunter Dozier is a player who has sneaky upside at the back-end of Royals stacks. Dozier always comes up at a fair price and he has multi-position eligibility, making him an easy click in these constructions. He is another Royals player who was somewhat down last season, hitting six home runs in 186 plate appearances, but going just .228/.344/.392 in the process. In 586 opportunities in 2019, Dozier put up a .279/.348/.522 slash, with 26 home runs and a .243 ISO. Don’t leave him out of too many Royals stacks.
The bottom third of the Royals’ projected lineup leaves something to be desired. There is minimal speed and power upside in all three of Kyle Isbel, Michael A. Taylor and Nicky Lopez, but there is not a lot of reason to go out of the way for them as anything more than mix-in options to differentiate stacks and capture some baseball variance.
HR Call: Jonathan Schoop — Detroit Tigers
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