MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 12
Gerrit Cole: NYY at TOR — DraftKings $10,700, FanDuel $11,000
Gerrit Cole is earning every penny of the sky-high salary cost on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Averaging 31.6 DraftKings points and 52 FanDuel points, Cole most recently hung 13 strikeouts on the Orioles while surrendering four hits against and no runs in seven innings. In 2020, Cole threw for a 32.6% strikeout rate, 15.3% swinging strike rate, .242 BABIP, 2.82 ERA, 3.38 xFIP and stranded 85.9% of batters faced. Drawing the Blue Jays on Monday, Cole faces a potent roster from both sides of the plate but nothing has not dispatched of previously.
The Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool projects Cole for a 23.1% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings for Monday’s massive 12-game slate, and a 7.7% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. With Awesemo’s projections of 20.78 DraftKings points and 35.67 FanDuel points, Cole is among the top pitchers on a laundry list of options for Monday. Given a sky-high asking price, Cole’s value naturally takes a hit, with a 4.9% chance of being a top-two value on DraftKings and 0.6% top value on FanDuel. Awesemo’s projects him for 28.3% ownership on DraftKings and 17.1% on FanDuel, but Cole’s popularity on any slate is an automatic presumption regardless of slate size.
Facing off with American League East rival Toronto, Cole is forecasted to face just three left-handed hitters. With a 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers through last season, Toronto has a .300 BABIP, .324 wOBA, 22.5% strikeout rate and .186 ISO. Cole has a 9.45 K/9, 1.10 WHIP, .298 BABIP and .236 average against right-handed hitters in his career, which warrant high prices and little hesitation to roster him. On such an extensive slate, Cole provides plenty of reason to chase another 60-point day and make cost cuts elsewhere.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value C
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Zack Greinke: HOU vs. DET — DraftKings $10,200, FanDuel $9,800
Zack Greinke has yet to show signs of falling off, as he has averaged 19.9 DraftKings points and 35.5 FanDuel points in 2021 via a .182 average against, 0.69 WHIP, 17.8% strikeout rate and 2.2% walk rate. While the strikeouts are down, so are his home runs surrendered, as Greinke is riding an 0.69 HR/9 and stranding 92.1% of batters faced. Welcoming the Tigers to Minute Maid Park, Greinke looks to continue reaffirming himself as a top pitcher.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool projects Greinke for a 10.4% top-two pitcher on DraftKings for Monday’s massive slate and a 5.3% top-overall pitcher on FanDuel. With projections of 15.76 DraftKings points and 28.38 FanDuel points, Greinke’s top pitcher projections translate with clarity. He has an attainably high salary cost on both sites for Monday, so Greinke carries a top-two value pitcher projection of 1.9% on DraftKings and 0.80% top value on FanDuel. Awesemo also projections 7.5% ownership on DraftKings and 5.0% on FanDuel, so Greinke is a middling option on both sites in regards to leverage.
Taking on a Tigers team projected to roll out four switch-hitters, three righties and two lefties, Greinke’s splits will be called into full effectiveness. He has a.285 wOBA against righties and .306 wOBA versus left-handed hitters, and Greinke’s career against opposite-handed bats have reflected a 1.24 WHIP, 21.5% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 76.9% left-on-base rate. Also considering his 0.91 HR/9 against both sides of the plate over his career, Greinke has proven his command in mitigating damage. With a .288 wOBA, .147 ISO, 28.1% strikeout rate and 76 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers through last season, the Tigers make for one of the better matchups on Monday’s 12-game slate. Without tipping the scale with salary cost or ownership projections, Greinke is a great fit for daily fantasy rosters to start the week.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value E
Wade Miley: CIN at SF — DraftKings $7,100, FanDuel $7,000
Wade Miley began his Cincinnati stint with flying colors, coming into Monday’s extended slate at an affordable price and in a bearable matchup in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. In his first start, Miley turned in 27.7 DraftKings points and 46 FanDuel points in six innings, allowing two hits and striking out six. Heading out to San Francisco to battle the Giants, Miley is an affordable pitching option for Monday with significant upside.
Awesemo’s projects Miley for 7.69 DraftKings points and 13.70 FanDuel points against San Francisco, which isn’t necessarily encouraging. He has a 1.1 value rating on DraftKings and 2.0 value rating on FanDuel. Awesemo also projects Miley for just 0.3% ownership on DraftKings and 0.5% on FanDuel, so he becomes an extremely low-owned pivot option that shows some promise through the prism of recency bias.
The Giants will have seven righties in the lineup, so the heat will be on Miley to handle his splits effectively. He has a combination of .275 average against, .335 wOBA, .423 FIP, .413 xFIP and 1.44 WHIP when facing right-handed hitters. Yet the Giants haven’t exactly continued their dominant performance against lefty pitchers they had last season (.358 wOBA, 127 wRC+), as San Francisco has managed a .200 BABIP and 101 wRC+ in 147 plate appearances thus far. On the largest slate since Opening Day, Monday’s assortment of spend-up hitting options will require salary savings to some capacity, and Miley is a solid candidate.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points E, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points D, Value D
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