Today there is a concise six-game daily fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. With a nice mix of top-end options and value pitchers up and down the slate, here are the Spotlight Pitchers for Monday, May 24.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | May 24
Lance Lynn: CWS vs. STL — DraftKings $9,300; FanDuel $10,000
Lance Lynn is averaging 23.8 DraftKings and 39.28 FanDuel points and a 27.7% strikeout rate in seven starts. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Lynn a 27.1% chance of reaching top-two pitcher status on DraftKings and a 13.9% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. Favorable MLB DFS projections and a discounted premium price on DraftKings gives Lynn a 14.4% chance at top-two value, and his high price only dips his FanDuel top-value chances a bit to 6.4%.
The Cardinals will have five righties, two lefties and two switch-hitters, and Lynn touts a 32.9% strikeout rate and 0.88 WHIP against right-handed hitters this year. The heart of the order for St. Louis has proven lethal, with Nolan Arenado (fourth) and Yadier Molina (fifth) posting ISOs over .220 against right-handed pitching in 2021. However, Lynn has surrendered just 21.6% hard contact to righty hitters. The Cardinals collectively have a .227 batting average and 23.1% strikeout rate with an 89 wRC+ against the split, boding all-the-better for Lynn’s chances tonight. Priced slightly too cheap on DraftKings and just right on FanDuel, Lynn feasibly contends for the top fantasy pitcher on both sites ahead of most.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value C
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Frankie Montas: OAK vs. SEA — DraftKings $6,200; FanDuel $8,400
Frankie Montas draws arguably the best start for a right-handed pitcher as the Mariners come to town. He is averaging 14 DraftKings and 27.88 FanDuel points with a 21.4% strikeout rate in nine starts. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Montas a 27.4% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 13.2% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. Some of the slate’s best MLB DFS point projections, along with an incredible salary cut on DraftKings, gives Montas a whopping 42.6% chance of being a top-two value. MLB daily fantasy ownership projections of 46.2% on DraftKings and 21% on FanDuel signify the stand to be made on DraftKings of rostering or fading Montas, while he meshes in smoothly on the one-pitcher site at an increased salary.
With Montas due to face a balanced hitting order of four righties, four lefties and one switch-hitter from Seattle, he’s been faring much better against left-handed opposition, with a 28.2% strikeout rate this year. Early in the Seattle order could be problematic with Mitch Haniger’s .268 ISO against fellow righties, and Montas’ 2.31 HR/9 against the split raises some red flags. Yet the Mariners haven’t allowed two no-hitters this season by coincidence, as they have just a .204 batting average, 25.8% strikeout rate and 86 wRC+ against righty pitchers. Montas makes way for arguably the best value on the slate, while his staggering ownership projection on DraftKings lends to a harder decision in MME contests.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value A
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Blake Snell: SD at MIL — DraftKings $8,900; FanDuel $9,300
Blake Snell starts off a four-game road trip against Milwaukee, averaging 16.1 DraftKings and 28.88 FanDuel points with a 33% strikeout rate in nine starts. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Snell a 26.3% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 10.5% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. The slight spend up with solid MLB DFS point projections combine for a 16% chance at top-two value on DraftKings and a 6.5% chance at top value on FanDuel. Daily fantasy baseball ownership projections of 40.2% on DraftKings and 18.3% on FanDuel indicate the discount on DraftKings garnering much attention in a two-pitcher format while remaining in the middle of the pack on FanDuel.
Scheduled to face five lefties and four righties, Snell is striking out 42.2% of left-handed hitters this season with an 0.65 WHIP. Christian Yelich (third) is back from injury and has a .292 ISO against left-handed pitching through last season. However, Milwaukee has a .224 batting average, 26.9% strikeout rate and 95 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in 2021. Snell provides a considerable fantasy-point ceiling at less than half the ownership on FanDuel and excellent value on both sites.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value B
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