Tuesday’s daily fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel provides a dynamic range in pitchers. With John Means fresh off of a no-hitter alongside Walker Buehler atop the premium pack of pitchers, there’s plenty to offer for roster construction on today’s 12-game schedule. Here are the Spotlight Pitchers for Tuesday, May 11.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | May 11
John Means: BAL at NYM — DraftKings $10,300; FanDuel $11,000
John Means draws the start for Baltimore against a New York Mets team still finding their rhythm. Means has been outstanding, averaging 31 DraftKings and 44.42 FanDuel points in six starts, with a 30.1% strikeout rate. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool projects him with a 10.6% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 5.2% projection on FanDuel. Given the astronomical salary on both sites in conjunction with his MLB DFS projections, Means’ value projections are considerably lower. The excruciating price for Means doesn’t come without its silver lining, shedding MLB DFS ownership at 4.2% on DraftKings and 0.40% on FanDuel.
The Mets will have four righties and two switch-hitters, and Means is striking-out over 31% of right-handed hitters this season. It is no surprise to see Mets’ Pete Alonso’s .300 ISO off left-handed pitchers this season, with his surrounding club members posting a 23.2% strikeout rate and .351 slugging percentage against the split. The spend-up makes Means a considerably intriguing pivot from the likely-to-be-popular next candidate.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value D
Walker Buehler: LAD vs SEA — DraftKings $9,800; FanDuel $10,800
The Dodgers will look for Walker Buehler to hit the brakes on their losing skid tonight against the Mariners. Buehler has gone over six innings in each of his six starts while averaging 19.7 DraftKings and 36 FanDuel points, a 26.9% strikeout rate and 12.1% swinging strike. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Buehler a 21.2% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and the highest rate of being top pitcher on FanDuel. Without breaking the bank entirely like Means, Buehler has a 7.4% chance of being top-two value on DraftKings, while the lofty five-digit investment on FanDuel makes him merely a 1.2% top value. MLB DFS ownership projections show Buehler will be popular, with 32.1% on DraftKings and 20.1% on FanDuel, yet he is not the chalkiest pitcher available.
Scheduled to face six righties and three lefties from Seattle, Buehler has managed 0.81 HR/9 with a 31.1% strikeout rate without walks against right-handed hitters. While Seattle brings some pop with lefty Kyle Seager’s (third) .258 ISO against righties, the Mariners collectively have a .218 batting average, 25.4% strikeout rate and 11.4% HR/FB rate. Buehler is priced just right on FanDuel and slightly too cheaply on DraftKings with a fantastic matchup at hand, especially considering his home runs and walks against fellow righties are at their best yet.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
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Dylan Cease: CWS vs MIN— DraftKings $7,000; FanDuel $8,200
Dylan Cease has begun to round the corner early into his career this season. In his third year in the majors, he’s averaging 20.5 DraftKings and 34.5 FanDuel points and a 32% strikeout rate in six starts. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Cease a 9.5% chance of being top-two pitcher on DraftKings and 4.6% of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, faring well by comparison to others on today’s large slate. Priced down on DraftKings, Cease’s value projections are among the best on that site, while considerably lower on FanDuel. MLB DFS ownership projections of just 8.4% on DraftKings and 3% on FanDuel present Cease as a low-owned, promising pivot option.
The Twins will have five righties and one switch-hitter. Cease is striking out right-handed hitters 27.7% of the time, lefties over 36%, and he is surrendering under 0.60 HR/9 to each side of the plate. With the early part of the Twins batting order posting an ISO over .250 against right-handed pitchers, Cease’s ability to mitigate fly ball damage (in contrast to his previous seasons) will be put to the test. As daunting as the Twins’ 16.5% HR/FB rate this season may be, Cease’s strikeout ability and drastic decrease in home run propensity make him an excellent MLB DFS value pitcher on either site.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value A
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