There is a double dose of daily fantasy baseball with a 10-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, preceded by an early three-gamer. Focusing on the main slate, the catalog of pitchers has just one player priced in five figures (three of them on FanDuel) with an array of talent priced in the low-upper cost tier. Zack Wheeler heads into Nationals Park at a fair salary on both sites, while Brandon Woodruff squares off with a Cardinals team his arsenal is tailored for. Here is some MLB DFS strategy and Spotlight Pitchers for Wednesday, May 12.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | May 12
Zack Wheeler: PHI at WAS — DraftKings $9,500; FanDuel $9,400
The main slate gets rolling at 7:05 p.m. ET when Zack Wheeler starts on the road against the Nationals. Wheeler has been terrific thus far, averaging 23.4 DraftKings and 39.85 FanDuel points with a 26.8% strikeout rate in seven starts. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Wheeler a 13% chance to reach top-two pitcher status on DraftKings and a 6.7% likelihood of being top pitcher on FanDuel. Considering MLB DFS projections and salary point, Wheeler also projects to be a 3.1% top-two value among pitchers on DraftKings and a 4.6% top value on FanDuel. MLB DFS ownerships of 6% on DraftKings and 3.7% on FanDuel indicate Wheeler is off of the grid as far as public attention goes on today’s main slate.
With Washington using five righties and one switch-hitter, Wheeler’s mutually respectable splits this season lend confidence in rostering him, with 0.96 and 0.97 WHIP against righties and lefties. The top of the Nationals’ order could bode troublesome; Trea Turner has a .500 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season, and Juan Soto (second) has a .256 ISO against the split over the past two seasons. Washington has a .237 batting average, 22.4% strikeout rate and 11.9% HR/FB rate. With both a more-than-fair asking price and little ownership from the field, Wheeler makes for a great pivot play in Wednesday’s upper salary bracket.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value DÂ
Brandon Woodruff: MIL vs STL — DraftKings $9,800; FanDuel $10,600
Brandon Woodruff takes the mound for the Brewers, averaging 23.9 DraftKings and 41.42 FanDuel points and recording six innings in six of his seven starts. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Woodruff a 19% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 7.8% chance at top pitcher on FanDuel. He has some of the slate’s best MLB DFS projections, and his price premium makes him one of the better values on DraftKings. And though Woodruff is cracking top-three pitcher popularity, he is still projecting for half the ownership of the top chalk.
St. Louis is due to roll out a lopsided batting order of seven righties, and Woodruff is posting a promising 29.3% strikeout rate with an 0.75 WHIP against right-handed hitting this season. Woodruff won’t be without danger as the middle and late portions of the Cards’ order; Nolan Arenado (forth), Paul DeJong (fifth), Yadier Molina (sixth) and Tyler O’Neill (seventh) are all hitting over a .200 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year. This season St. Louis collectively has a .223 batting average, 23.7% strikeout rate and 88 wRC+ against righty pitchers. With excellent projections and without an excess in ownership, Woodruff is a stellar top pitching option for today’s main slate.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value BÂ
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Julio Urias: LAD vs SEA — DraftKings $8,700; FanDuel $9,700
Julio Urias looks to rebound from his last outing as he draws the start against the Mariners at his cheapest price on DraftKings all season. He is averaging 20.5 DraftKings and 35.85 FanDuel points in seven starts while posting his best strikeout rate as a starter, 27.2%. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Urias a 22.6% chance at being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 9% chance at top pitcher on FanDuel. With considerable frugality on DraftKings, he has a 14.6% chance of being a top-two value among pitchers, and despite the higher price, he still has a 3.6% chance at top value on FanDuel. His MLB daily fantasy ownership projections show him as a bit too popular on DraftKings, but he offers substantial upside and differentiation on FanDuel.
Seattle will have five righties and two switch-hitters, and Urias has a 25.2% strikeout rate and 1.12 WHIP against right-handed hitters this year. Mitch Haniger has lingering power at the top of the order, as he is coming off two home runs a day prior and has a .387 ISO off left-handed pitching in 2021. That aside, Seattle has a .188 batting average, 29.5% strikeout rate and 83 wRC+ against lefties. Urias already had over 40 DraftKings points against the Mariners this year, and he is a superb option at a moderate rate on Wednesday night.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value AÂ
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