Monday starts the MLB DFS week off with a big 11-game evening main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though rain may cut things to 10 if Mother Nature has her way in Atlanta. The slate has only a few top-end pitching options, with most of the teams running out fourth and fifth starters in their rotations. There are a few competent options from the value range, but none that compare favorably to the most expensive pitchers on the board if the evening follows expectations. Hitting seems like the more abundant source of MLB DFS points on this slate. Several games have inflated totals, and good lineups are taking on mediocre pitchers across the league. This configuration should make it relatively easy to find good combinations of less expensive, lower-owned bats and premium arms for GPP play across both sites. Let’s go over some of the best fantasy baseball picks today with the help of Awesemo’s expert MLB DFS projections.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun — 11.51
Atlanta Braves: Joc Pederson — 7.76
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 8.83
Boston Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe — 15.24
Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 16.35
Cincinnati Reds: Jesse Winker — 12.99
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 9.75
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 7.30
Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 12.10
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 9.27
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 7.29
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 12.15
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 18.68
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 7.89
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes — 6.75
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 13.77
San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 2.00
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 12.07
Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Zunino — 9.58
Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 11.21
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 10.08
Washington Nationals: Trea Turner — 7.53
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Monday’s pitching slate is short on options in the mid-range. The top options are relatively obvious, Yu Darvish is in a favorable spot against a weakened Braves lineup, while Kevin Gausman will likely be more challenged by the healthy Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani will make his first start after appearing in seemingly every part of All-Star weekend. He draws the talented Athletics lineup for a start in their pitchers’ park and projects well, and fellow All-Star Kyle Gibson of the Rangers is facing the timid Tigers offense. Outside of that quartet, the options become increasingly uncomfortable, Zack Greinke is playable against the Indians, though the lack of strikeout upside will be painful to MLB DFS production, Casey Mize is at least interesting as an SP2 on DraftKings on the other side of the Rangers – Tigers game and Kyle Muller is creeping up the board on the Top Pitchers tool as a value play despite a very challenging matchup against the Padres.
Darvish leads the way on both sites by probability of success, but he will also be incredibly popular on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been excellent through his first 18 starts, posting a 29.8% strikeout rate and pitching to a 3.77 xFIP with a 1.00 WHIP, which is helped by his 5.7% walk rate. Darvish induces a sharp 12.8% swinging-strike rate and limits hard contact to just 33.8% with an 87.7 mph average exit velocity. The limited power upside comes in spite of a 7.2% barrel rate and an 18.9-degree average launch angle, even when hitters square up his pitches and elevate, it is difficult to generate the necessary drive to create home run upside against Darvish. The Braves have been one of baseball’s better teams against right-handed pitching this season. The active roster has a 4.31% home run rate and a .189 ISO in the split, though they create runs 1% worse than average by WRC+ and have a 25.1% strikeout rate that approaches the bottom of the league against righties. Atlanta replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. with Joc Pederson in this lineup, in an attempt to replicate the power production at least against righties, though they are not in the same galaxy in terms of overall talent. The Braves lineup is diminished without their superstar, but they can still do damage; Darvish is in a strong spot, and he is one of the most talented options on the board, weighing the degree to which exposures are above or below the field’s projected mark will be a critical inflection point in tonight’s contests.
Ohtani ranks a few spots down the board by probability of success but offers a strong value salary on the DraftKings slate where he comes in at just $8,700 and draws a mere 16.4% ownership. On FanDuel, Ohtani is a $10,200 option with even less public popularity, though he rates even further down the board on the blue site in Awesemo’s simulations. He has thrown 67 innings in his 13 starts this season, putting up a 30.7% strikeout rate and inducing a 14% swinging strike rate. He has a 3.65 xFIP but has allowed too many baserunners and is currently at a 1.21 WHIP given his unsightly 12.4% walk rate. Ohtani allows premium contact as well, opposing hitters barrel the ball at a 6.5% rate, but he yields a 42.6% hard-hit rate that trails the average, though he has managed to avoid trouble with the long ball for the most part, Ohtani has a mere 0.81 HR/9 mark on the season. The Angels will be in Oakland, a spacious pitchers park with significant foul territory creating outs where they would not otherwise exist. Ohtani benefits from the ballpark and will be facing an Athletics lineup that is around or slightly above league average in the split. Oakland has a 3.77% home run rate against righties that ranks 14th among baseball’s 30 teams. They have a .176 ISO and a 23.2% home run rate that are somewhat better than that range, but land just 3% ahead of the curve by WRC+ in the split. The one concern would be related to the depth of innings he may provide, but he threw seven innings in his final start before the break and – prior to a 0.2 inning blip of a bad outing against the Yankees – had completed six full innings in four of five starts. Particularly on DraftKings where he is both cheap and low-owned, Ohtani seems like an advantageous play.
Gausman had a strong first half. He threw 114.2 innings in 18 starts, providing excellent depth and is tied with several starters for second in baseball with 14 quality starts this year (Walker Buehler of the Dodgers leads the league with 16). Gausman has struck out 30.5% of opposing hitters this season, inducing a terrific 15.7% swinging-strike rate and posting a 32.6% CSW that is well ahead of the league average. He allows a 6.3% barrel rate that sits in the 72nd percentile and a 36.8% hard-hit rate that is 65th percentile, helping keep the ball in the yard and opposing offenses suppressed. Gausman will need all of his six tricky pitches to be effective tonight against an excellent Dodgers lineup that is third-best in baseball creating runs against righties, sitting 15% above average by WRC+. Los Angeles strikes out at just a 21.8% rate in the split, among the best teams in baseball, and they have a collective .176 ISO and a 3.95% home run rate that are both well above par. The Dodgers offense is a significant threat that is combining with Gausman’s $10,000 salary on DraftKings and $10,600 tag on the blue site to keep his ownership less than what his talent would dictate.
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Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are among the top teams by probability of success on both sites tonight, and they stand atop the power index for home run upside in a contest against Ross Stripling in Toronto’s Triple-A ballpark in Buffalo. The Red Sox do not even need a boost from park factors to explode off the page in this spot, from top to bottom the projected lineup is drawing power upside and playable MLB DFS projections. Stripling has allowed targetable contact metrics through his 74.2 innings this season, yielding a 10.4% barrel rate and a 40.1% hard-hit rate with a 17-degree average launch angle and a 90 mph average exit velocity, an ideal shape for home runs. He strikes out 24.8% of hitters and walks 7.3%, something of a wash in terms of creating and erasing opportunities for the opposition, but he has just a 10% swinging strike rate and a 27.2% CSW which should limit the overall strikeout upside for an excellent lineup like the Red Sox. The pricing in the Boston lineup should be creating more ownership, Alex Verdugo is cheap on both sites at $3,500 on DraftKings and $2,800 on the blue site. J.D. Martinez comes at a salary and popularity discount, while Xander Bogaerts is pricey but equally unpopular across the industry. Rafael Devers is the most expensive bat on the team at $5,800 on DraftKings, but he is somehow priced at just $3,800 on FanDuel, a clear mistake in this spot that is still only drawing 10% popularity. Hunter Renfroe offers major power upside from the five spot for a mere $3,300 on both sites, and the filler around the edges includes strong options like Enrique Hernandez leading off, and Jarren Duran, catcher Kevin Plawecki and powerful Bobby Dalbec making up the bottom third of the lineup. If ownership projections hold, the Red Sox look like a great play on both sites.
New York Mets
The Mets are in Cincinnati’s favorable hitter’s park to face struggling Vladimir Gutierrez. In 50.1 innings over nine starts, Gutierrez has struck out only 16.5% of opposing hitters while walking 10.6% and allowing a 10.8% barrel rate, a combination of factors that create a significant upside curve for Mets bats in this spot. By the walk rate plus barrel rate minus strikeout rate shorthand metric, Gutierrez is the slate’s most targetable pitcher for run creation. He has an ugly 5.65 xFIP and a 1.35 WHIP on the season, while inducing just 10% swinging strikes and a 26.1% CSW. The Mets, meanwhile, have gotten healthy and back to form, the recent injury to Francisco Lindor notwithstanding. The more complete version of this lineup has upside against what is currently a bad pitcher, and they will be under-owned on the DraftKings slate.
Brandon Nimmo leads off in the projected lineup against a right-handed pitcher. Nimmo has made 136 plate appearances this season and is in his typically excellent form with the hit and on-base skills, slashing .306/.430/.441 in the limited sample. Nimmo has hit two home runs and has a .135 ISO but creates runs 49% better than average by WRC+, considering the other skills he brings. He adds some minor stolen base upside, having swiped two bases so far this year. Nimmo will be owned in the mid-teens on the FanDuel slate for just $3,200 and is less popular across town where he costs $4,500.
Pete Alonso is the most popular Mets bat on both sites. He put on a major show in the home run derby and is drawing nearly 25% ownership on the FanDuel slate where he is at just a $3,800 price tag. For $5,900 on DraftKings he is less popular, but still widely owned. Alonso has hit 17 home runs and has a .223 ISO this season, slashing .254/.335/.477 across his 322 plate appearances. He creates runs 23% ahead of average and should not be skipped in stacks despite the heavy ownership.
Jeff McNeill is projected in the three spot in the lineup, but the role could just as easily land with several of the hitters to follow. McNeill typically excels with the hit tool, but this year he is slashing just .257/.347/.337 over his 199 plate appearances. He has hit three home runs and has a limited .080 ISO on the season, while creating runs 1% behind the average by WRC+. McNeill is somewhat miscast in the No. 3 spot, but he is playable from anywhere in this lineup given the extended sample. For his career, McNeill is a .309/.377/.475 hitter over 1,223 plate appearances. He comes at a discounted salary and should be included in a significant share of Mets stacks.
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Dominic Smith slots into the DraftKings outfield for $4,300, and he picks up first base eligibility at $3,400 on FanDuel. He is another low-owned option across the industry and has upside in Mets stacks. Smith has been in the lineup all season but has struggled to maintain the excellent pace he set in 2019 and 2020. Smith hit 21 home runs in 396 plate appearances across the two seasons, this year he has nine in 324. His triple-slash has dropped significantly, this season he is hitting just .254/.321/.392 with a .137 ISO and has created runs 1% worse than average for the year. Smith is playable given the lack of public popularity and the low cost in this lineup, he has power that has rarely been tapped this season and could surprise in this spot.
Michael Conforto is pulling an excellent home run mark in the model in this matchup and he is priced far too low for his talent. Conforto is at $2,800 on FanDuel and just $3,400 on DraftKings, and he will be at or below 10% ownership on both sites. He has hit just four home runs in 213 plate appearances and has a lowly .121 ISO so far this year while slashing just .207/.347/.328. His ability to get on base has clearly not diminished, which has helped him stay only 1% below average by WRC+ despite the lousy start. Conforto is one of the best bets in the league to turn things around in the back end of the season. He has a career .217 ISO and created runs 25% better than average across his 2,714 plate appearances. In 2019 he hit 33 home runs in 648 plate appearances, in 2020 he hit another nine in 233 tries, slashing a fantastic .322/.412/.515 along the way.
James McCann is at either the bottom of the tier of baseball’s good-hitting catchers, or the top of the lesser offensive options. He is priced as the latter on the FanDuel slate at just $2,400, more the former on DraftKings where he is a $3,800 option. In either situation he is playable, though the appeal is not as significant where the position is not required. McCann has hit seven home runs this year and has a .121 ISO, creating runs 9% behind the average in his 266 plate appearances.
Luis Guillorme slots into the lineup filling in for Lindor. He is priced at the minimum on FanDuel, where he is largely positional filler, and $3,200 on DraftKings. He has seen 107 plate appearances this year, slashing .276/.406/.299 with a .023 ISO along the way. His ability to get on base in the short sample has helped with run creation, Guillorme does have a demonstrable ability to draw walks, in the few opportunities this year he is at 17.8% and has a 13.5% rate with just a 15.4% strikeout rate for his 319 career plate appearances. That lone skill could make Guillorme a sneaky option to turn the lineup over and create runs for the better players atop the batting order, though that only justifies a few plays as a wraparound.
HR Call: Michael Conforto — New York Mets
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