MLB DFS Picks, Ownership, HRs & Top Stacks for DraftKings + FanDuel Fantasy Baseball Lineups

The Fourth of July main slate of MLB DFS action kicks off at 1:05 p.m. ET with a slightly different shape from site to site. The DraftKings version adds the seven-inning first game of the Mets – Yankees doubleheader. The contest features Yankees ace Gerrit Cole taking on Marcus Stroman, so there is DFS-relevant pitching available in that game for DraftKings players; the appeal of Cole in a seven-inning start is strong despite any ties to the endless “sticky stuff” discussions. It is worth noting that, due to the game not appearing anywhere on FanDuel, the Yankees and Mets do not come up in the power index or home run picks below. The remaining eight games that appear on both slates are loaded and should make for fun holiday MLB DFS contests, with quality options for pitching and bats from all corners of the slate.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all of the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. — 17.32

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 5.14

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 13.60

Cincinnati Reds: Jesse Winker — 12.55

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 9.44

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 10.02

Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 6.02

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 12.33

Miami Marlins: Starling Marte — 4.33

Milwaukee Brewers: Avisail Garcia — 7.07

Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz — 7.77

Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 12.15

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 4.25

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 12.10

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 14.10

Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 9.09

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Compared to yesterday’s main slate mess, today’s pitching options are abundant. DraftKings players have the luxury of rostering Cole in a shortened game, and even Stroman can provide some value, though he is not typically a go-to option for MLB DFS purposes. Of the pitchers on both sites, Freddy Peralta of the Brewers stands atop the board for his talent, form and matchup against the lowly Pirates. The top end is crowded, however, as both Robbie Ray and Lucas Giolito are in strong spots for strikeouts and upside starts as well. Atlanta’s Charlie Morton is perhaps a rung below the others, but he offers an excellent matchup against the Marlins, while the mid-range fills out with serviceable names like Zack Greinke, Kyle Hendricks and Blake Snell.

Peralta has been lights out this season. He has completed 87.0 innings in his 15 starts, compiling a 36.2% strikeout rate and a 3.49 xFIP. He walks too many hitters with an 11% free pass rate, but still manages a sparkling 0.87 WHIP. Peralta induces an excellent 14.4% swinging strike rate and has a steady 30.9% CSW. Opponents barrel the ball at a 7.4% rate against him and they have an average launch angle of 23.0 degrees, which is prime territory for home run trajectory. However, hitters have been unable to reliably drive the ball against Peralta. He has a 35.4% hard-hit rate and an 87.6 mph average exit velocity. The Pirates offense is a frequent visitor to the pitching portion of this column, where their strikeout rates against both hands are always noteworthy; Pittsburgh is second-best in baseball with just a 21.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. As a team, the Pirates have a collective .127 ISO and a league-low 2.39% home run rate, and they create runs 15% worse than average in the split. Despite the ability to slightly cap strikeouts, this is an excellent spot for Peralta.

Ray faces the Rays in a solid matchup to rack up some strikeouts. Tampa Bay sits fifth-worst in the league with a 27% strikeout rate against lefties for the season. The Rays get most of their power on the other side of matchups, against lefties the team has just a .140 ISO and a 2.94% home run rate, both well below average. They create runs 7% worse than average in the split, lending Ray a modicum of safety along with the strikeout upside despite what is on paper a tough division opponent. Ray has been excellent through this season, forcing those of us who do not fully trust him to embrace him more and more as the season rolls along. He is not at a comfortable price, coming in at $10,800 on FanDuel and $9,300 on DraftKings, but he is likely to be worth the investment. He is striking out 31.7% of opposing hitters and has cut his famously high walk rate all the way to a mere 6.2%. He has a 3.11 xFIP and a 1.13 WHIP to go with a 15.6% swinging strike rate and a 30.7% CSW. Ray does allow too much hard contact, sitting at 49.1% for the season while yielding an also bad 10.9% barreled ball rate and a 91.8 mph average exit velocity. If the walk rate slips, the contact metrics could turn Ray’s season quickly.

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Giolito draws the timid Tigers and stands a strong chance of putting up a big start. He has not been quite at the level of his two peers above, but he provides extremely reliable depth of start and a great shot at the win and quality start bonuses. Giolito has completed 93.2 innings across 16 starts this season, pitching to a 3.72 xFIP with a 1.10 WHIP while inducing 15.2% swinging strikes. He has a 30% CSW and is walking 8% of hitters while striking out 29.4% of opponents. He is yielding a 20.6-degree average launch angle and a 9.4% barreled ball rate, which is not great contact, but he keeps hitters off balance enough to get away with it, posting a 37.9% hard-hit rate and an 88.4 mph average exit velocity. The Tigers offense adds to the appeal, Detroit is second-worst in baseball with a 26.3% strikeout rate against righties this season and they create runs 7% worse than average. Detroit has minor power, their .150 collective ISO and 3.18% home run rate are both below average, but not at the absolute bottom of the league. Giolito is likely to put up a steady run of strikeouts in this one, though he could take minor dings if he misses his spot and yields a long ball or two.

Morton comes at a minor discount to the rest of the top end, and he is in a plus matchup as well. The opposing Marlins are MLB’s seventh-worst team by strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, landing at 25.4%. They have just a .135 ISO as a group and a lowly 2.90% home run rate while creating runs 11% worse than average. The Marlins have a handful of talented bats and a few interesting young players, but they are not there yet and a pitcher like Morton could exploit this spot. He has a 27.5% strikeout rate over his 86.2 innings in 16 starts this year. Morton has a 3.48 xFIP and a 1.13 WHIP on the season while inducing 12.7% swinging strikes and compiling a solid 31.2% CSW. He has a strong contact profile as well, allowing just a 4.9% barreled ball rate and a 7.6-degree average launch angle. Opponents drive the ball with hard hits 34.1% of the time against Morton, putting together an 88.1 mph average exit velocity. Morton is not at an extreme discount to the other premium options, but a few hundred in savings could buy a difference making bat in the right stack.

Toronto Blue Jays

Backing up Ray, the Blue Jays’ dynamite young offense looks to be in prime position for relevant MLB DFS production. Toronto ranks among the best teams on the Top Stacks Tool this morning, but they are going under-owned on both sites, making them the most appealing stack on the board at this point. The Blue Jays offer excellent options and combinations of skillsets up and down the lineup. Toronto is facing Ryan Yarbrough, who has just a 19.3% strikeout rate on the season. He allows a reasonably good 6.3% barreled ball rate and has been excellent limiting hard contact against, yielding a mere 26.2% hard contact and an average exit velocity of just 84.1 mph, though the 16.8-degree average launch angle should play for Blue Jays hitters elevating the baseball in their minor league home park, which could lead to home run upside. Toronto has the league’s eighth-best home run rate against lefties, coming in at 4.10% and they are above average across the board with a 22.6% strikeout rate and a .178 team ISO in the split, while creating runs 8% better than average against lefties. While the power needle may not be buried, the Blue Jays are showing strong indicators for a high scoring performance.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/4/2021″ team=”blue jays”]

Marcus Semien has been terrific for the Blue Jays after disappointing in the shortened 2020 in Oakland. Semien is slashing .289/.353/.548 over his 368 plate appearances this year and he has hit 21 home runs, second on the team. Semien has a .259 ISO and is creating runs 41% better than average this season. Between the individual power upside and the ability to get on base to set the table for his teammates, he even adds 10 stolen bases to his season-long tally. Semien is a spectacular option leading off for $4,200 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings.

Bo Bichette is a $5,500 shortstop on DraftKings and costs just $3,900 on FanDuel. Bichette has hit 15 home runs and stolen 12 bases already this season, a 25-25 year is not out of reach at this point. In his 361 plate appearances this year he is slashing .287/.338/.479 with a .192 ISO and creating runs 21% better than average.

The breakout year is here for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., simply one of baseball’s best hitters already in his early career. Guerrero mark 2.0 is slashing .337/.440/.673 on the season. He has 27 home runs, a comical .337 ISO and is creating runs 95% better than average for the season. Guerrero sits in the 97th percentile with a 55.3% hard-hit rate, the 95th with a 16.6% barrel rate, the 99th with a 95.1 mph average exit velocity and the 99th with a .626 expected slugging percentage. Considering the .673 actual slugging percentage, it is fair to say that a small portion of the extra-base power will come back to earth, but he is clearly a superstar hitter. Guerrero costs $5,800 on the DraftKings slate and $4,600 on the blue site. He will be owned under 5% on both sites, making him a terrific option.

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Outfielder George Springer was Toronto’s other major acquisition this offseason. After starring in Houston, Springer has struggled to stay in the lineup this season, making just 61 plate appearances. In that small sample he has five home runs, a stolen base, and is slashing .245/.383/.571. Springer has clear upside beyond those marks. In 2019 he made 556 plate appearances for the Astros and went .292/.383/.591 with a .299 ISO and 39 home runs. In the short 2020 season he saw 222 plate appearances, hit 14 home runs and had a .275 ISO. He is at a salary and popularity discount across the industry, making him an obvious click in Toronto stacks.

Teoscar Hernandez is a strong option for power and a bit of speed. Hernandez has made 268 plate appearances this season and he has hit 11 home runs and swiped five bags while slashing .299/.340/.482 on the season. He has a .183 ISO and is creating runs 21% better than average on the season. Hernandez ends a run of five straight hitters whose average WRC+ is 47% better than the league average to start the lineup. For just $4,900 on DraftKings and an incredibly generous $3,400 on FanDuel, he has clear upside.

Cavan Biggio offers third base and outfield eligibility on the DraftKings slate and just second base positioning on FanDuel. Biggio is slashing .236/.345/.382 for the season, has six home runs and two stolen bases in his 228 plate appearances and is creating runs exactly at league average. Biggio hit 16 home runs and stole 14 bases in his debut in 2019, so he at worst has upside for counting stats.

Randal Grichuk fills a home run hitting role from later in the Blue Jays lineup and provides steady MLB DFS upside for his consistently discounted price. Grichuk has hit 14 home runs in his 323 plate appearances, slashing .262/.291/.456 with a .194 ISO. If he were simply able to get on base more reliably, Grichuk would be a premium hitter and would be placed higher in the batting order, his low on-base skills instead lead to a 1% below average run creation mark. However, Grichuk is in the 91st percentile with a 90.7 mph average exit velocity.

Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has made 289 plate appearances and is slashing .259/.278/.416 with a .157 ISO and nine home runs. He is creating runs 16% worse than average in that sample and he needs development time on his swing plane and plate discipline. Gurriel is in the 5th percentile in chase rate. He costs just $3,100 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings and will not be owned by the public on either site.

Danny Jansen is drawing minor attention for $2,200 as a catcher on DraftKings, for the minimum on FanDuel he is only pulling in 1% ownership. Jansen is slashing a mere .157/.248/.278 across 122 plate appearances, creating runs 54% worse than average and he has hit just three home runs. If there is a weak spot in the Blue Jays’ lineup, this is the only one.

HR Call: Jose Abreu — Chicago White Sox

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.