Saturday, July 25 has a main slate beginning with the 1pm ET games on SuperDraft, DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Full Slate Action
Greetings, Gamers! Baseball is back and we have a rare 1pm ET “main slate” on most sites. DraftKings is going with the 11 games up through the four o’clock hour. FanDuel is rolling a 13 game “main slate” by including the two 5:10pm ET tilts.
Similar to last year I will be providing a review of one stack for the main slate as well as the viable sub-slates with at least two games on the docket. Some of these short-slate options will be good for the full-game set, others will be more contrarian and better suited for the mini-game sets.
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Main Slate MLB DFS Picks
St Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Trevor Williams – 5.0 implied runs
Yes, you can absolutely play the Boston Red Sox, but where is the fun in writing about them? RHPÂ Alex Cobb made only three starts last year after suffering an injured hip. He is not good.
Now let’s look to the Redbirds at home against RHP Trevor Williams. Yes, St Louis disappointed on Friday, but now we have a day game with temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s and 60% humidity aka home run weather. While Williams has allowed a 1.2 HR/9 over his last 1,300 batters faced, it is the nearly 40% fly ball and 30% hard hit rates that are intriguing.
Most of the Cardinals regulars have had success against Williams in the past. This should be no surprise as they profile well against him. Last year Williams struck out only 12.5% of lefties. The trio of Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman all perform well against the fastball which Williams uses 55% of the time against opposite-handed hitters.
Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong both thrive against fastballs and sliders which account for 70% of Williams pitch mix to same-handed hitters. Don’t be dissuaded by one pedestrian outing, go right back to the Cardinals on Saturday.
Afternoon Slate MLB DFS Picks
Houston Astros vs. RHP Taijuan Walker – 6.0 implied runs
Coming back to the team where he began his career, RHPÂ Taijuan Walker will be squaring off against an Astros juggernaut on Saturday. Walker has talent and when healthy he strikes out nearly a batter per inning. This issue is that he is rarely healthy and he has pitched only 14.0 MLB innings over the last two seasons.
When healthy, Walker leans on his 94 MPH fastball 60% of the tie and a complimentary changup 15% of the time and every fourth pitch is some sort of breaking ball without much consistency. Most projection systems have Walker with a 1.5-1.6 HR/9 which is well above his 1.2 HR/9 career rate.
The usual suspects are all in play with the top five in the Houston order. If you are looking for differentiation, then the bottom third should have a good chance of coming up to the plate with someone from the heart of the order on base.
Evening Slate MLB DFS Picks
Cincinnati Reds vs. RHP Ivan Nova – 5.4 implied runs
This is another phenomenal weather spot as it is going to be in the low-90s Saturday afternoon in the Great American SmallPark (that never gets old). The Reds are well positioned to take advantage of the universal designated hitter rule with Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker, Matt Davidson and of course Joey Votto can get a day off from the field as needed.
Over the last two seasons, RHP Ivan Nova has allowed 56 home runs which is the 10th most in the league. The mix is 31 to lefties and 25 to righties. Everyone is in play with the preferred order of preference considering price, position, projections and popularity being Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Eugino Suares, Matt Davidson, Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Freddy Galvis and Phillip Ervin.
Late Slate MLB DFS Picks
San Diego Padres vs. LHP Robbie Ray– 4.5 implied runs
We can play both sides of this one as the Diamondbacks southpaw could strikeout 7+ like he did in 20 of 33 starts last season or he could allow multiple home runs as he did ten times. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. Tommy Pham and Wil Myers should be our core four as a late slate option. They are reasonable one-offs or pairs on the all-day slates for differentiation.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
