Wednesday, Sept. 23, has a 14-game “main” slate locking at 6:07pm ET on DraftKings. There will be a six-game “main” slate at the usual 7:05pm ET lock time on FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
Early-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Philadelphia Phillies at RHP Erick Fedde – 6.0 implied runs
While I would love to recommend going with the Rangers against Alex Young, it is just hard to feel confident about any of them outside of Joey Gallo and maybe Willie Calhoun.
J.T. Realmuto should be back in action along with Jay Bruce, so that really leaves Rhys Hoskins as the only key hitter who will not be available. This will be the third time this season that Fedde has had to face of with the Philadelphia batsmen. They have tagged him with an 8.18 ERA over 11.0 innings with three home runs and just five strikeouts. While the Nationals hurler has not allowed a home run in his last two starts, he still has issued six walks in those 11.0 innings and is averaging one every other inning on the season.
In his last 401 righty/righty matchups, opposing hitters have compiled a 1.66 HR/9 with a 10.0% rate, .205 ISO and just a 16.2% strikeout rate. Lefties have not quite corralled as many home runs, but they too have a delicious 10.4% walk rate with a low 13.0% strikeout rate over 345 plate appearances.
Really anyone who draws a start is in play for this 6:05 p.m. EST game. Since the beginning of the 2018 season Bryce Harper (.240), Didi Gregorius (.217) and Bruce (.249) have hammered opposite-handed hurlers. Realmuto is a cheat code and like rostering a first baseman at the catcher slot. Veteran Andrew McCutchen will be at the top of the order, which all but assures him of five-plus at bats.
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Main-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Casey Mize – 5.5 implied runs
Like most rookie pitchers this abbreviated season, Mize has struggled making the jump from AA to The Show. The strikeouts have been there with 22 in 23.2 innings, but the 11 walks and five home runs have not helped his cause. This all works out to a 6.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
The Twins will have most everyone available tonight, and they are now within a half game of these White Sox for the AL Central crown. People have forgotten just how good Josh Donaldson is against righties after he has missed so much time with injuries the last couple seasons. In his last 729 righty/righty matchups, he has posted a .253 ISO with a 130 wRC+. When Miguel Sano manages to connect, the ball is screaming for mercy with his .280 ISO in his last 683 same-handed matchups. Just know that he also has a 38.9% strikeout rate, which is abysmal.
After several disappointing seasons, Byron Buxton is putting it all together, and he has been promoted to the leadoff spot. In his last 400 same-handed battles, he has compiled a .245 ISO. Do keep in mind he has just stolen one base, though his 13 home runs are second on the team to only Nelson Cruz. Speaking of Cruz, he is a little dinged up, though if the 40-year-old is in the Twins lineup, he should be in ours.
All of this is before we even get to lefties Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario, who are absolutely viable options. Finally, for some differentiation look to Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez, who will have the platoon advantage all game. Remember that for most of the season Polanco was at the top of the lineup, and when everyone was hurt Gonzalez was helping hold things together as the cleanup and five-hole hitter for nearly a quarter of the games this year.
Late-Slate MLB DFS Picks
San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Ryan Castellani – 5.3 implied runs
This has been a difficult rookie season for Castellani, who has a low 5.59 K/9 and a high 4.89 walk rate with a 2.56 HR/9 in his 38.2 innings. In his defense he has logged 24.1 innings in Coors Field, but five of his 11 home runs have come in his 14.1 innings on the road. San Francisco has a puncher’s chance (51.1%) of making the post season, so they are pulling out all the stops. Lefties Alex Dickerson (elbow) and Mike Yastrzemski (calf) should at least be available for pinch-hitting duties, but they may not start.
Our focus should be on Brandon Belt, Wilmer Flores and Evan Longoria as the trio to target on the main slate for a contrarian stack. On the late slate we can add in Brandon Crawford and even Donovan Solano.
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